Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Charleston, WV

304 
WWUS51 KRLX 132130
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
530 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

OHC127-132200-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-180513T2200Z/
Perry OH-
530 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY...

At 530 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Somerset,
moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Perry State Forest and Crooksville. 

# 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Please report severe weather to the National Weather Service by
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

You may also report severe weather by posting your report to the
Charleston West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or
by using the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3982 8217 3981 8209 3973 8211 3977 8236
      3986 8236 3986 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 283DEG 26KT 3982 8227 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

30

344 
WWUS51 KRLX 132136
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
536 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

OHC127-132146-
/O.CAN.KRLX.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-180513T2200Z/
Perry OH-
536 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Charleston West Virginia.

LAT...LON 3982 8217 3981 8209 3973 8211 3977 8236
      3986 8236 3986 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 283DEG 26KT 3981 8222 

$$

30

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
232 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface boundary across north could sink south to brings
scattered t-storms thru tonight. Some storms could be strong to
severe. Unsettled pattern dominates the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...

Tricky forecast as the quasi stationary boundary moves south to
north through tonight. Because of uncertainty on the location
of the front, kept chance PoP across central WV, likely PoPs
across extreme northern WV and dry PoPs across the southern
third of the area.

By Monday morning the frontal boundary should drop south at the
same time with a upper level disturbance. This kicking mechanism
could aid convective initiation across the north slowly sinking
south. There is a slight risk for severe weather tomorrow
morning. Coded chance PoPs with this feature.

Sfc based CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg suggest enough bouyancy,
however soundings show a cap in place. The best shear continues
to remain north of the forecast area, but with 30-40 kts of
bulk shear should a storm break through the cap it should be
able to sustain an updraft and potentially become strong to
severe.

Despite precipitable water values nearing 2 inches across the
north, expect coverage to be low enough to limit flash flood
concerns. For temperatures, went with the bias corrected MOS
values for lows tonight, and the bias corrected SREF for highs
on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

Really not many changes in the overall forecast thinking for the
start of the work week. Lots of instability in place with the
chance for thunderstorms. Models keep the stationary boundary
draped within our vicinity. Moisture will increase the next few
days and dew points could climb into the low 70s by Tuesday, so
with available surface moisture and EML plume remaining
overhead, it is not surprising to still see model soundings
showing 1500 - 2000 J/Kg of CAPE. Storm development will depend
on timing of any subtle perturbations moving through the
westerly flow. Temperatures will remain above average through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

As with the last few forecasts, no changes to the extended with
the unsettled conditions persisting through the long term
period. Will have to monitor the trends in the forecast of the
upper low that pulls northward out of the Gulf of Mexico the end
of this week. This system has potential to bring some tropical
moisture and heavy rain into the region that could produce some
flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 149 PM Sunday...

Tricky forecast as the quasi stationary boundary move north and
south through tonight. Because of uncertainty on the location
of the front, only coded VCTS on the northern sites such as CKB,
PKB and EKN this afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions will continue under partly sunny skies. Brief
periods of IFR possible along stronger storms mainly extreme
north.

Some low stratus could develop mainly over the extreme north
where pcpn is expected.

Winds will be southwesterly through the period, with some gusts
of 15 to 20 kts possible this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Northern terminals may not see IFR
conditions if the front remains north of the area late this
afternoon into tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms through the
week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
443 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

OHZ066-075-083>086-WVZ007>009-016>019-028>030-039-521>526-142045-
Perry-Athens-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-Upshur-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
443 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
or evening, with strong winds the main threat. If multiple storms
move over the same area, flooding concerns would be increased.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday and
Tuesday during the afternoon and evening, with strong winds the main
threat. Isolated flash flooding is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ067-076-WVZ010-011-020-031-032-040-142045-
Morgan-Washington-Pleasants-Tyler-Doddridge-Harrison-Taylor-Barbour-
443 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia and northern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

If multiple storms move over the same area, flooding concerns would
be increased.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday and
Tuesday during the afternoon and evening, with strong winds the main
threat. Isolated flash flooding is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

KYZ101-103-OHZ087-WVZ006-014-015-027-517>520-142045-
Greenup-Boyd-Lawrence OH-Cabell-Putnam-Kanawha-Clay-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-
443 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, portions of southeast Ohio, and portions of central West
Virginia, southeast West Virginia, southern West Virginia and
western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday and
Tuesday during the afternoon and evening, with strong winds the main
threat. Isolated flash flooding is also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ102-105-VAZ003-004-WVZ005-013-024>026-033-034-515-516-142045-
Carter-Lawrence KY-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Lincoln-Mingo-Logan-
Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
443 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and portions of southeast West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.