Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Charleston, WV

020 
WWUS51 KRLX 052055
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
455 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018

VAC027-051-052115-
/O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180505T2115Z/
Dickenson VA-Buchanan VA-
455 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL DICKENSON AND WEST CENTRAL BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

At 454 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Breaks 
Interstate, moving northeast at 30 mph. Spotters at John Flannigan 
Lake reported half dollar sized hail.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Grundy, Haysi, Breaks Interstate, John Flannagan Lake and Big Rock. 

# 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Please report severe weather to the National Weather Service by
calling toll free, 800 401 9535, when you can do so safely.

You may also report severe weather by posting your report to the
Charleston West Virginia National Weather Service Facebook Page, or
by using the Twitter Hashtag, NWSRLX.

&&

LAT...LON 3720 8228 3721 8233 3723 8236 3727 8235
      3728 8234 3728 8232 3730 8231 3739 8218
      3730 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 226DEG 24KT 3728 8230 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MEC

329 
WWUS51 KRLX 052112
SVSRLX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
512 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018

VAC027-051-052122-
/O.EXP.KRLX.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180505T2115Z/
Dickenson VA-Buchanan VA-
512 PM EDT SAT MAY 5 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL DICKENSON AND
WEST CENTRAL BUCHANAN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3720 8228 3721 8233 3723 8236 3727 8235
      3728 8234 3728 8232 3730 8231 3739 8218
      3730 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 226DEG 24KT 3736 8220 

$$

MEC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
408 PM EDT Sat May 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An low pressure low brings more rain to the area for the rest of
this Weekend. High pressure to the north battling upper level
low pressure to the south early next week, wins out by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Saturday...

Low pressure over Tennessee will continue to move ENE overnight
tonight and move over the area Sunday morning and exit Sunday
night. More steadier rain from this system will spread over the
region later this evening and persist through Sunday morning
before ending west to east Sunday afternoon and evening.
Rainfall amounts are expected to range between an inch to an
inch and a half, with some localized areas seeing a tad more if
convection develops. Instability is marginal at best and
diminishes after sunset. FFGs are between 2 and 3 inches over
much of the area. So,the flood threat is low and not
anticipating any watches or warnings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...

The latest in a series of short waves and associated cold
fronts rotating through a mean eastern CONUS trough cruises
into the area Sunday night into Monday. This brings renewed rain
chances in the form of rain showers. The surface trough
approaches the southern mountains by Monday morning. Then,
models agree that a wave/enhancement just ahead of the upper-
level trough axis will bring more widespread rain shower
activity. Should destabilization occur via WAA, aided by solar
energy fighting through the thick cloud deck, thunderstorms are
possible across the SE. Models right now suggest MUCAPE on the
order of 500-700 J/kg in the southern zones, however generally
weak flow indicates any storms would be short-lived and weak in
nature.

High pressure to the North eventually wins out and forces the
region to dry Monday night from North to South. Some radiational
cooling is possible, especially northwest of 64/79 corridors
where clearing skies are most likely.

Diurnally driven rain showers are possible Tuesday as high
pressure to the North battles instability and southern stream
low pressure systems. Better chances for radiational cooling
exist Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with more clearing
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM Saturday...

Moisture remains high through the remainder of the week with
generally unsettled conditions. The best chance for dry weather
during the long term occurs Wednesday with high pressure to the
North, though with moisture diurnally driven showers are still
on the table though unlikely at this point.

A trough moves through later in the week with an upper Great
Lakes low and a training cold front through the Ohio Valley.
Rain showers from this are possible Wednesday night with a warm
front through Thursday night when the cold front passage. During
the day Thursday, thunderstorms are possible in the warm sector.

The forecast for Friday into next weekend depends upon how far
south the front gets, and whether and where a wave forms along
the front.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 PM Saturday...

VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon hours
in scattered showers. Rain coverage will increase from the WSW
this evening, as Low pressure over Tennessee moves ENE and moves
over the southern portion of the area by 06Z. Conditions are
expected to deteriorate to IFR or worse in CIGS/VSBYs after 06Z
and persist into Sunday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of IFR/LIFR Rain/Fog/Cigs this
evening and into Sunday may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in departing rain Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/MC
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MC
LONG TERM...MC
AVIATION...JS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
437 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ075-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>034-
039-040-515>526-060845-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Athens-Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-
Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-
Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-
Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
437 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a marginal risk of excessive rainfall today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

OHZ066-067-076-060845-
Perry-Morgan-Washington-
437 AM EDT Sat May 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
429 PM EDT SAT MAY 05 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     HAIL             CLINTWOOD               37.15N  82.46W
05/05/2018  M1.25 INCH       DICKENSON          VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER RLX1801565

MEC