Frost Advisory 3, NWS Charleston, WV

916 
WWUS71 KRLX 010652
NPWRLX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Charleston WV
252 AM EDT Tue May 1 2018


WVZ008>011-015>020-024>031-033-034-011300-
/O.CON.KRLX.FR.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180501T1300Z/
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-
Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-Gilmer-Lewis-
Harrison-McDowell-Wyoming-
Including the cities of Ravenswood, Ripley, Parkersburg, Vienna, 
St. Marys, Belmont, Paden City, Sistersville, Middlebourne, 
Charleston, South Charleston, Saint Albans, Spencer, Elizabeth, 
Grantsville, Harrisville, Pennsboro, West Union, Williamson, 
Logan, Chapmanville, Man, Madison, Clay, Sutton, Gassaway, 
Burnsville, Glenville, Weston, Clarksburg, Bridgeport, Welch, 
Gary, War, Mullens, Oceana, and Pineville
252 AM EDT Tue May 1 2018

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* TEMPERATURES...In the lower 40s.

* TIMING...Through early this morning.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive 
  vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the 
  cold.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.

&&

$$

Kistner

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
333 PM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure settles in through mid-week, with a warming
trend. A cold front will bring precipitation chances to the
region late this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Monday...

Big Bubble No Trouble...High pressure will continue to build
over the region overnight and Tuesday. Winds will eventually die
down towards sunset and switch to the SW. This will allow for
some decoupling. However, with winds switching to the SW
overnight, temperatures shouldn't drop too much. There may be a
few patches of frost here and there in the extreme sheltered
valleys, but not enough to cause any problems or headlines.

Tuesday, with high pressure over the region, temperatures
should warm nicely and forecast reach the low 80s in the
lowlands by afternoon. 60s/70s in the mountain zones.

Enjoy!!!

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

Surface high pressure to our south will keep the area dry and
sunny for the duration of the short term. The northeastern CWA
will be dry and breezy and expecting gusts up to 35mph and low
RH values in the 20's. As moisture builds back in from the west
while the fleeting high pressure exits and the area experiences
a more zonal flow, area will stay warm with temperatures
reaching into the mid 80's towards mid - week. Sunny days and
lights winds are expected through the short term. Left out
precipitation in the forecast period until a cold front moves
into the area on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM Sunday...

As high pressure starts to exit the area warmer temperatures
will start to switch over to cooler temperatures as two cold
fronts pass through this weekend. A system developing in the
central plains will cross over to the CWA by Thursday evening
bringing the first cold front through the area Friday morning.
Models diverge a little as the NAVGEM and GFS has the system
exiting on Saturday morning while the Euro keeps the system
around until Sunday. Decided to go with a blend and have the
system exiting Saturday afternoon. Total QPF is expected to be
up near a half an inch in most areas with highers amounts
nearing 0.75 inch in the NE CWA area and the northern West
Virginia panhandle. With the jet stream parked overhead on
Friday into Saturday cannot rule out possible thunderstorms and
moderate showers associated with convective activity.

After this system exits, cooler temperatures from Canadian
outflow can be expected as this system exits and yet another
cold front comes in from the north, but models diverge on the
timing on this front. The GFS has it coming in as late as
Tuesday morning while other models have it coming through as
early as Sunday evening. With model uncertainty decided to go
with a blend with the cold front coming through Sunday night
late into early Monday morning. Not expecting much precipitation
with this front as high pressure builds in quickly on the
backside of this one.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 105 PM Monday...

High pressure continues to build over the region. VFR
conditions and variable winds through the forecast period for
PKB/HTS/CRW, with little or no impacts to aviation expected. At
CKB/EKN/BKW and the WV mountains, NW winds will occasionally
gust to 14-19kts this afternoon and will gradually shift to the
SW after 00Z and diminish. VFR conditions throughout the
forecast period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR anticipated.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JS/JZ
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
923 AM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

WVZ520-522>526-011330-
Southeast Nicholas-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
923 AM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast West
Virginia and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Fire danger threat will be elevated today and into this evening due
to the combination of low relative humidity, dry fuels, and gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>034-039-040-515>519-521-011330-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne-
Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-
Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
923 AM EDT Mon Apr 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.