Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Charleston, WV

871 
WGUS71 KRLX 252133
FFSRLX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
533 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2018

WVC007-013-015-021-087-252142-
/O.CAN.KRLX.FF.W.0078.000000T0000Z-180925T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Calhoun WV-Gilmer WV-Braxton WV-Roane WV-Clay WV-
533 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALHOUN...SOUTHWESTERN
GILMER...WEST CENTRAL BRAXTON...EAST CENTRAL ROANE AND NORTH CENTRAL
CLAY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3881 8096 3868 8083 3854 8111 3866 8123

$$

Kistner

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
325 PM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front pushes through Wednesday. High pressure with drier
weather for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 248 PM Tuesday...

Heaviest showers are currently exiting to the NNE of
Parkersburg as a rather potent H5 s/w trough is advecting NE
across WV. Some DNVA in wake of the s/w trough this evening
should translate to a lull in precip for the evening hours.

Overnight, a 30 to 40 kt southwesterly LLJ is prog to develop
across the western half of the CWA with showers and
thunderstorms redeveloping after midnight across SE OH/E KY/W
WV as WAA increases. Additional thunderstorms may develop along
the eastern edge of the LLJ as moisture convergence values
increase.

A cold front will approach and move through the region on
Wednesday, but timing discrepancies exist. Some guidance suites
want to bring the front and a line of convection through around
mid morning Wed while other suites (including some convective
allowing models) bring the front through during the
midday/afternoon hours. A broken line of showers and
thunderstorms should accompany the cold front with some storms
likely becoming strong to perhaps severe. Main limiting factor
for greater severe weather chances will be lack of instability,
although bulk shear values ranging from 35 to 50 kts may be able
to overcome some of the lack of instability.

Main storm threat should end from NW to SE in the afternoon (if
not sooner) with some light post frontal precip developing in
its wake.

High moisture depth through much of the atmospheric column and
stronger forcing tonight and Wed should lead to some highly
efficient rainfall processes. Combination of this along with
already saturated soils will likely lead to a flooding impacts
across the CWA. Thus, will maintain inherited Flash Flood Watch.

Unseasonably mild tonight as WAA develops, with min temps in the
60s to near 70. Max temps on Wednesday will depend on FROPA
timing, but most areas should warm into at least the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Tuesday...

A cold front will move through the area on Wednesday, with
showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous across the area
as it does so. Some storms could be severe, with damaging winds
the primary threat, with strengthening shear, on the order of
40-50+ kts, particularly across parts of southeast Ohio and
northern WV. Even if severe winds are not realized at the
surface, it wont take much wind for tree damage, with the
overall wet nature of the ground. In addition, storms will move
along well, thereby mitigating a significant flash flood risk,
however, it will still be a possibility with overall wet
conditions.

Cold front will be to the east of the CWA by Thursday morning,
with drier conditions taking hold. There will still be a slight
chance for precipitation across the higher terrain Thursday and
Friday with lingering moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Tuesday...

Drier, and overall sunny weather for the weekend under the
influence of high pressure. Chances for precipitation increase
by early next week, with another system affecting the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Sct SHRA with a few TSRA expected across the region this
afternoon. However, areal coverage may be rather minimal at
times due to extensive cloud cover (and lack of significant
instability). MVFR/IFR to even LIFR VSBYs possible under
heaviest precip. Otherwise, VFR to prevail this afternoon with
bkn to overcast skies with bases around 4kft to 6kft.

Tonight, a lull in precip may occur this evening with sct
convection developing late in the night across SE OH and
approaching KHTS to KPKB towards sunrise. Areas of poor VSBYs
and CIGs may impact KEKN...with variable flight rules elsewhere.

Sct SHRA and TSRA expected to move from NW to SE during the day
Wed as a cold front pushes through. Strong to severe storms may
occur midday/afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precip and associated conditions
may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR at times in showers and thunderstorms and post rain stratus
and fog through at least mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>031.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for OHZ066-067-
     075-076-083>087.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RH
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
256 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-083-084-086-087-WVZ005-006-013-260700-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Jackson OH-Vinton-Gallia-
Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Lincoln-
256 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, portions
of southeast Ohio, and portions of southern West Virginia and
western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Damaging winds are the primary risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033-034-515-516-260700-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Mingo-Logan-Boone-McDowell-Wyoming-
Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
256 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of southeast West Virginia and southern West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Damaging winds are the primary risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

WVZ032-039-040-517>526-260700-
Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-
Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-
Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
256 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central West
Virginia, northeast West Virginia, northern West Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.
Damaging winds are the primary risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

OHZ067-075-076-085-WVZ007>011-014>020-027>031-260700-
Morgan-Athens-Washington-Meigs-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-
Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Clay-Braxton-
Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-
256 AM EDT Tue Sep 25 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast Ohio,
and portions of central West Virginia, northern West Virginia,
southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday. Damaging
winds are the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.