Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Charleston, WV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
243 PM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits tonight. Low pressure drags a cold front
across Monday night, followed by arctic air for mid week.
Moderating temperatures for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 100 PM Sunday...

High pressure retreats into New England tonight, giving way to
developing sw flow aloft ahead of the next system. Expect temps
to fall quickly this evening, especially over the deeper
snowpack across southeast Ohio. Meanwhile, mid deck will be
rapidly approaching from the west and southwest, ahead of an
amplifying upper level system. This will probably allow temps to
level off, especially combined with the increase in low level
moisture ahead of developing warm front late. Weak isentropic
lift should allow an area of light snow to break out across the
Ohio Valley during the predawn hours and clip portions of
southeast Ohio. Given how dry the low level airmass, much of
this may fall as virga, though do expect some flurries/light
snow for a time early Monday morning, perhaps as far south as
the Kentucky counties. The warm front quickly shifts into
western Pennsylvania, allowing for a brief lull.

The upper level system and associated frontal boundary will
gradually pivot southeast Ohio heading into the afternoon,
allowing light snow to overspread that area. Used a blend of
NAM/GFS for qpf which yields 1 to 2 inches by 00Z across Perry
County with a few tenths across the remainder Ohio counties.
Elsewhere, expect a decent rebound in temps during the
afternoon, with upper 30s to perhaps lower 40s across the Coal
Fields and up along the I79 corridor.

Perry County may eventually need an advisory, but given how
marginal the amounts are and the fact most of the accumulation
would be Monday afternoon, elected to punt for this package.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

A cold front will push through the region Monday night and stall
just east of the area. This will leave moisture over the region
as a weak wave moves up the front. This will provide periods of
snow Monday night through Tuesday night with several inches
possible. Think that some winter weather advisories will be
needed, but concerned with how much the models moved the main
axis from Saturday's runs. Therefore will hold off for now.

Some upslope snow may linger into Wednesday behind the system,
but will battle the drier arctic air.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 455 PM Saturday...

A high pressure system will build in Wednesday night and
Thursday. As this high shifts eastward later in the week, expect
moderating temperatures.

A system will approach the area toward the end of the weekend,
with some rain showers possible in advance of this system.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PAM Sunday...
18Z Sunday through 18Z Monday...

The pesky stratocu is finally dissipating across KCRW, allowing
for areawide VFR conditions amid light flow.

VFR conditions continue tonight for all terminals amid intervals
of mid deck that will eventually lower into 4 to 6 thousand foot
cigs. A brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions may develop during
the predawn across southeast Ohio in light snow from an
advancing warm front.

A cold front will slowly approach southeast Ohio during the day
Monday, with developing MVFR/IFR conditions in light snow. VFR
conditions will hold for the terminals thru 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in snow Monday night into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30

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