Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Riverton, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
154 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Limited moisture and instability in northwest flow aloft will
bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the north
this evening with mainly dry and windy conditions across the
south where a red flag warning remains in effect until 8 p mdt
this evening in zones 222 and 279.  A cold front will move south
later tonight bringing more stability to the air mass with dry and
cooler conditions expected on Monday. Warming is expected on
Tuesday with dry conditions continuing.  Some limited moisture
and instability will drift into the west on Wednesday with some
showers and Isolated thunderstorms developing over the western
mountains and spreading east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Not a lot of change to the long range forecast today. Through
Thursday feature some monsoonal moisture moving into the area with a
chance of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms. The GFS and
European continue to differ on how substantial the coverage will be
with the GFS continuing to be the wetter model and the European
drier. It also looks like a majority of the activity will be West of
the Divide. We again kept POPS in the slight category until we can
better zero in on where the better chance is. Temperatures will be
fairly warm but largely seasonal for the latter part of July.

Most of the moisture should be pushed south and east by Friday and
Saturday. The rest will be warmer temperatures with relative
humidity beginning to lower once again. The main concern will be
possible elevated fire behavior. Relative humidity will fall into
the teens. The winds at this point look borderline however, but it
needs to be watched, especially on Friday. Temperatures will be
above normal with highs in the 90s across many of the lower
elevations East of the Divide.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue into the
evening for most of the terminals East of the Continental Divide
before ending from northwest to southeast with most activity over by
around 07Z. A gusty wind around KRKS will decrease this evening
after sunset and the wind decouples. High pressure will bring VFR
conditions and mainly light winds to all TAF sites on Monday.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 141 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Limited moisture and instability in northwest flow aloft will
bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the north
this evening with mainly dry and windy conditions across the
south where a red flag warning remains in effect until 8 p mdt
this evening in zones 222 and 279.  A cold front will move south
later tonight bringing more stability to the air mass with dry and
cooler conditions expected on Monday. Warming is expected on
Tuesday with dry conditions continuing.  Some limited moisture
and instability will drift into the west on Wednesday with some
showers and Isolated thunderstorms developing over the western
mountains and spreading east.  Mixing heights and transport winds
will combine for excellent smoke dispersal in the afternoons and
early evening hours.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ277-279.

&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Hattings
AVIATION...Hattings
FIRE WEATHER...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Riverton WY
203 AM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

WYZ001>020-022>030-301100-
Yellowstone National Park-Absaroka Mountains-Cody Foothills-
North Big Horn Basin-Southwest Big Horn Basin-
Southeast Big Horn Basin-Owl Creek and Bridger Mountains-
Bighorn Mountains West-Bighorn Mountains Southeast-
Northeast Johnson County-Southeast Johnson County-
Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains-Jackson Hole-
Wind River Mountains West-Wind River Mountains East-
Upper Wind River Basin-Wind River Basin-Lander Foothills-
Green Mountains and Rattlesnake Range-
Natrona County Lower Elevations-Casper Mountain-Star Valley-
Salt River and Wyoming Ranges-Upper Green River Basin Foothills-
Upper Green River Basin-South Lincoln County-
Rock Springs and Green River-Flaming Gorge-East Sweetwater County-
203 AM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sweetwater, Uinta, and Southern
Lincoln Counties today.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Western and Central Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, especially along and east of the
Continental Divide. Some of these storms will likely produce small
hail, locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong gusty
winds. There will be a few strong thunderstorms and even isolated
severe thunderstorms are possible.

Low relative humidity, very warm temperatures, and dry thunderstorms
producing strong wind gusts in southwest Wyoming will create erratic
fire behavior today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Tuesday through Thursday...Isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms, mainly over and near the northwest mountains.

Thursday and Friday...Warm and dry conditions with gusty west wind
will elevated fire weather conditions across southern Wyoming during
the afternoon and early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters urged to report wind gusts past 45 mph, hail size, and
rainfall amounts. Thank you.

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