Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Riverton, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
110 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Moisture in west northwest flow aloft will continue to support
clouds and scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms over
the north decreasing to the south.  Temperatures will be cooler
with higher relative humidity in the north with warmer temperatures
and lower relative humidity in the south.  A Red Flag warning is
in effect until 8 pm mdt this evening and again from noon to 8 pm
mdt Saturday for zones 277 and 279.  very low relative humidity
with windy and gusty west winds will be over the south through 8
pm mdt this evening and again from noon to 8 pm mdt Saturday
afternoon. Moisture will decrease with warming aloft Sunday
and Monday with decreasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms,

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

With possible severe weather today, we did make a lot of changes to
the long term grids. A bit of monsoonal moisture may return to the
western mountains on Tuesday although the models are split with the
European the drier of the two. For now, we went with slight POPS
over and near the western mountains with dry conditions elsewhere.

With ridging building over the area, temperatures should be on the
upward swing with highs in the 90s likely returning for some
locations on Wednesday and into Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible each afternoon. But again, there is poor agreement
in the models as to the timing of individual  in the
flow that would increase coverage of convection. And like before,
the GFS is the wet model with the European largely dry. The truth,
as always, is probably somewhere in the middle like it usually is.
For now, we blended the models but kept POPs again in the slight
category for most locations until there is better model agreement.
One concern for Thursday is possible gusty winds developing that
could lead to elevated fire behavior across portions of the area,
especially across the southern half of Wyoming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
near most TAF sites with the exception of KJAC and possibly KPNA.
The expected thunderstorms around the Bighorn mountains and into
Johnson and Natrona counties could be severe, with large hail and
strong wind. VFR conditions generally expected, with MVFR conditions
likely under and around the showers and thunderstorms. Isolated
showers and storms will linger through 09Z Saturday. More showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday after 18Z Friday in
similar locations to Friday, although storms should not be quite as
strong.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 102 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Moisture in west northwest flow aloft will continue to support
clouds and scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms over
the north decreasing to the south.  Temperatures will be cooler
with higher relative humidity in the north with warmer temperatures
and lower relative humidity in the south.  A Red Flag warning is
in effect until 8 pm mdt this evening and again from noon to 8 pm
mdt Saturday for zones 277 and 279.  very low relative humidity
with windy and gusty west winds will be over the south through 8
pm mdt this evening and again from noon to 8 pm mdt Saturday
afternoon.  Mixing heights and transport winds will combine for
excellent smoke dispersal in the afternoons and early evening
hours.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ277-279.

&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Hattings
AVIATION...Hattings
FIRE WEATHER...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Riverton WY
257 AM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

WYZ001>020-022>030-281100-
Yellowstone National Park-Absaroka Mountains-Cody Foothills-
North Big Horn Basin-Southwest Big Horn Basin-
Southeast Big Horn Basin-Owl Creek and Bridger Mountains-
Bighorn Mountains West-Bighorn Mountains Southeast-
Northeast Johnson County-Southeast Johnson County-
Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains-Jackson Hole-
Wind River Mountains West-Wind River Mountains East-
Upper Wind River Basin-Wind River Basin-Lander Foothills-
Green Mountains and Rattlesnake Range-
Natrona County Lower Elevations-Casper Mountain-Star Valley-
Salt River and Wyoming Ranges-Upper Green River Basin Foothills-
Upper Green River Basin-South Lincoln County-
Rock Springs and Green River-Flaming Gorge-East Sweetwater County-
257 AM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sweetwater, Uinta, and
Southern Lincoln Counties today.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Western and Central Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, especially along and east of the
Continental Divide. Some of these storms will likely
produce small hail, locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning,
and strong gusty winds. There will be a few strong thunderstorms
and even isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

Low relative humidity, very warm temperatures, and dry
thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts in southwest Wyoming
will create erratic fire behavior today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Saturday afternoon and evening...Scattered thunderstorms,
especially along and east of the Continental Divide.

Sunday...Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms along and
east of the divide, mainly over and near mountain areas.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters urged to report wind gusts past 45 mph, hail size, and
rainfall amounts. Thank you.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
610 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             2 SE CROOKED CREEK NATU 44.96N 108.29W
07/27/2018  M1.25 INCH       BIG HORN           WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MCDONALD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Riverton WY
626 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

WYZ006-280100-
Southeast Big Horn Basin-
626 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHAKIE COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM MDT...

At 626 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles northwest of Winchester, or 20 miles west of Worland, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Washakie County, including the following locations... Washakie County
Fairgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4403 10796 4387 10824 4411 10848 4417 10836
      4417 10827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 314DEG 27KT 4410 10836

McDonald

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Riverton WY
632 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

WYZ004-008-280100-
North Big Horn Basin-Bighorn Mountains West-
632 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL BIG HORN COUNTY UNTIL 700
PM MDT...

At 631 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Medicine Wheel, or 19 miles east of Lovell, moving southeast at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Shell, Shell Canyon, and Shell Falls around 700 PM MDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Porcupine Campground
and Bald Mountain Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4487 10786 4482 10782 4479 10783 4477 10775
      4472 10775 4471 10768 4468 10767 4470 10762
      4466 10752 4464 10753 4463 10751 4464 10750
      4462 10748 4446 10777 4478 10812 4491 10785
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 313DEG 30KT 4478 10800

McDonald

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Riverton WY
651 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

WYZ006-280115-
Southeast Big Horn Basin-
651 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL WASHAKIE COUNTY
UNTIL 715 PM MDT...

At 650 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wyoming Boys School, or near Worland, moving southeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Worland Municipal Airport around 655 PM MDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Washakie County
Fairgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4397 10817 4409 10808 4401 10751 4374 10768
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 295DEG 39KT 4398 10804

McDonald

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
658 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             13 SSE BUFFALO          44.17N 106.62W
07/27/2018  M1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            WY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO WINDOWS BROKEN DUE TO HAIL AND WIND

&&

MCDONALD

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