Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Riverton, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
110 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Moisture in west northwest flow aloft will continue to support
clouds and scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms over
the north decreasing to the south.  Temperatures will be cooler
with higher relative humidity in the north with warmer temperatures
and lower relative humidity in the south.  A Red Flag warning is
in effect until 8 pm mdt this evening and again from noon to 8 pm
mdt Saturday for zones 277 and 279.  very low relative humidity
with windy and gusty west winds will be over the south through 8
pm mdt this evening and again from noon to 8 pm mdt Saturday
afternoon. Moisture will decrease with warming aloft Sunday
and Monday with decreasing clouds, showers and thunderstorms,

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

With possible severe weather today, we did make a lot of changes to
the long term grids. A bit of monsoonal moisture may return to the
western mountains on Tuesday although the models are split with the
European the drier of the two. For now, we went with slight POPS
over and near the western mountains with dry conditions elsewhere.

With ridging building over the area, temperatures should be on the
upward swing with highs in the 90s likely returning for some
locations on Wednesday and into Thursday. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible each afternoon. But again, there is poor agreement
in the models as to the timing of individual  in the
flow that would increase coverage of convection. And like before,
the GFS is the wet model with the European largely dry. The truth,
as always, is probably somewhere in the middle like it usually is.
For now, we blended the models but kept POPs again in the slight
category for most locations until there is better model agreement.
One concern for Thursday is possible gusty winds developing that
could lead to elevated fire behavior across portions of the area,
especially across the southern half of Wyoming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
near most TAF sites with the exception of KJAC and possibly KPNA.
The expected thunderstorms around the Bighorn mountains and into
Johnson and Natrona counties could be severe, with large hail and
strong wind. VFR conditions generally expected, with MVFR conditions
likely under and around the showers and thunderstorms. Isolated
showers and storms will linger through 09Z Saturday. More showers
and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday after 18Z Friday in
similar locations to Friday, although storms should not be quite as
strong.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 102 PM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Moisture in west northwest flow aloft will continue to support
clouds and scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms over
the north decreasing to the south.  Temperatures will be cooler
with higher relative humidity in the north with warmer temperatures
and lower relative humidity in the south.  A Red Flag warning is
in effect until 8 pm mdt this evening and again from noon to 8 pm
mdt Saturday for zones 277 and 279.  very low relative humidity
with windy and gusty west winds will be over the south through 8
pm mdt this evening and again from noon to 8 pm mdt Saturday
afternoon.  Mixing heights and transport winds will combine for
excellent smoke dispersal in the afternoons and early evening
hours.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ277-279.

&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Hattings
AVIATION...Hattings
FIRE WEATHER...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Riverton WY
257 AM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

WYZ001>020-022>030-281100-
Yellowstone National Park-Absaroka Mountains-Cody Foothills-
North Big Horn Basin-Southwest Big Horn Basin-
Southeast Big Horn Basin-Owl Creek and Bridger Mountains-
Bighorn Mountains West-Bighorn Mountains Southeast-
Northeast Johnson County-Southeast Johnson County-
Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains-Jackson Hole-
Wind River Mountains West-Wind River Mountains East-
Upper Wind River Basin-Wind River Basin-Lander Foothills-
Green Mountains and Rattlesnake Range-
Natrona County Lower Elevations-Casper Mountain-Star Valley-
Salt River and Wyoming Ranges-Upper Green River Basin Foothills-
Upper Green River Basin-South Lincoln County-
Rock Springs and Green River-Flaming Gorge-East Sweetwater County-
257 AM MDT Fri Jul 27 2018

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sweetwater, Uinta, and
Southern Lincoln Counties today.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Western and Central Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, especially along and east of the
Continental Divide. Some of these storms will likely
produce small hail, locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning,
and strong gusty winds. There will be a few strong thunderstorms
and even isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

Low relative humidity, very warm temperatures, and dry
thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts in southwest Wyoming
will create erratic fire behavior today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Saturday afternoon and evening...Scattered thunderstorms,
especially along and east of the Continental Divide.

Sunday...Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms along and
east of the divide, mainly over and near mountain areas.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Isolated afternoon and evening
thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters urged to report wind gusts past 45 mph, hail size, and
rainfall amounts. Thank you.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Riverton WY
334 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

WYZ009-020-272215-
Bighorn Mountains Southeast-Natrona County Lower Elevations-
334 PM MDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL NATRONA COUNTY
UNTIL 415 PM MDT...

At 334 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Red Wall, or 23 miles southwest of Kaycee, moving east at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Natrona County, including the following locations... Willow Creek
School.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4337 10703 4349 10702 4349 10644 4323 10648
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 273DEG 25KT 4340 10683

Baker

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