Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Riverton, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
208 PM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...This evening through Thursday

Much cooler temperatures this afternoon, after last night cold
front. Also, skies are a bit hazy as smoke from fires in N CA and
S OR have infiltrated over the region as the upper level flow has
become more E-W orientated.

Thunderstorms could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening
over Hot Springs, Washakie, Fremont and Natrona counties. Cape
values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, bulk shear 30 to 40kt, sfc dewpoints
in the upper 40s to lower 50s and sfc winds from the northeast to
east are in place this afternoon. Otherwise, the storm threat will
subside by 06Z, with isolated showers trending northeast toward
12Z Thursday.

Temperatures will remain cooler Thursday, with isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms remaining confined to areas east of the
Divide. Some storms could be strong to severe again, as similar
conditions will once again be in place. Areas west of the Divide
will remain dry, while critical fire weather conditions could be
in place across southern zones. RH values will drop to the middle
teens, with wind gusts of 25 mph possible. A Red Flag Warning may
be needed and will let the next shift have another look, before
issuing any highlights.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Wednesday

Somewhat active weather looks to continue through the first period
of the longer range, followed by a quieter period. Convection
will be ongoing Thursday night, before becoming more isolated at
night. Like previous days, the main concentration will be across
northern and eastern portions of the county warning area with
gradually tapering POPs further south and west. Friday is also
looking rather active. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight
risk not too far east of the area. We will also have some extra
lift with a decent cold front that will be sliding across the
area. The best forcing and moisture will likely remain over
eastern Wyoming, but some could try to creep back westward,
especially into Natrona and Johnson County. Definitely something
to watch.

There will be one more day of the thunderstorms for Saturday, with a
shortwave sliding across the state. Again, the best chance will be
in northern Wyoming to the north of the divide with gradually
decreasing chances south and west. With less moisture over the area,
we should see a decrease in coverage of thunderstorms for Sunday,
especially if the GFS is right. For now, we kept some POPS over the
mountains but most areas should be rain free. Monday through
Wednesday at this point look seasonably warm to hot and mainly
dry, with ridging building over the state. There is some QPF over
the mountains, but this could be the models overdoing the
orographic lift. The best chance of any precipitation in this
period would likely be Tuesday as a weak shortwave could be moving
through, but timing of these features in questionable at best
this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday

Showers and thunderstorms will become isolated to widely scattered
by this evening, with showers ending over KCPR by 07z. A few
strong to severe storms (wind gusts over 40kts, hail, and brief
heavy rain) possible along a vicinity KDUB- KRIW- KCPR line
through 04z Thursday, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible.
Isolated showers will remain possible over NE portions 07z - 14z.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will remain east of the
Divide Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures tonight will mainly be slightly cooler. RH values
will also generally be higher, except far western zones, which
will be 5 to 15 percent lower. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms will be possible through 04Z east of the Divide.
Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms will end across the area by
07Z. Temperatures Thursday will once again be slightly cooler,
with RH values approaching critical values across the southern
zones. Thus, a Red Flag Warning may be needed for zones 277 and
279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LaVoie
LONG TERM...Hattings
AVIATION...LaVoie
FIRE WEATHER...LaVoie

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Riverton WY
200 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018

WYZ001>020-022>030-261100-
Yellowstone National Park-Absaroka Mountains-Cody Foothills-
North Big Horn Basin-Southwest Big Horn Basin-
Southeast Big Horn Basin-Owl Creek and Bridger Mountains-
Bighorn Mountains West-Bighorn Mountains Southeast-
Northeast Johnson County-Southeast Johnson County-
Teton and Gros Ventre Mountains-Jackson Hole-
Wind River Mountains West-Wind River Mountains East-
Upper Wind River Basin-Wind River Basin-Lander Foothills-
Green Mountains and Rattlesnake Range-
Natrona County Lower Elevations-Casper Mountain-Star Valley-
Salt River and Wyoming Ranges-Upper Green River Basin Foothills-
Upper Green River Basin-South Lincoln County-
Rock Springs and Green River-Flaming Gorge-East Sweetwater County-
200 AM MDT Wed Jul 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Western and Central Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated to locally scattered thunderstorms, especially along and
east of the Continental Divide in East Central Wyoming. Some
storms will likely contain small hail and wind gusts at and above
45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thursday afternoon through Saturday night...Scattered
thunderstorms, especially along and east of the Continental
Divide.

Sunday...Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms along and
east of the divide.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters urged to report wind gusts past 45 mph and hail size.
Thank you.

TEAM RIVERTON

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