Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Reno, NV

935 
WWUS55 KREV 162011
SVSREV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
Issued by National Weather Service Elko NV
111 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

NVC021-162045-
/O.CON.KREV.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180516T2045Z/
Mineral NV-
111 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM PDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL MINERAL COUNTY...

At 111 PM PDT, Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable
of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was
located 10 miles northeast of Hawthorne, or 34 miles southwest of
Gabbs, moving north at 15 mph. nickel size hail may also accompany
the damaging winds.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of north
central Mineral County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds, destructive hail, deadly
lightning and very heavy rain. For your protection move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of your home or business. Heavy
rains flood roads quickly so do not drive into areas where water
covers the road.

&&

LAT...LON 3856 11842 3857 11855 3888 11864 3886 11830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2011Z 183DEG 13KT 3864 11848 

$$

JRM

203 
WWUS55 KREV 162036
SVSREV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
Issued by National Weather Service Elko NV
136 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

NVC021-162046-
/O.EXP.KREV.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180516T2045Z/
Mineral NV-
136 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL MINERAL COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 145 PM PDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire. However small hail,
gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Reno Nevada.

LAT...LON 3856 11842 3857 11855 3888 11864 3886 11830
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 183DEG 13KT 3872 11847 

$$

JRM

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
540 AM PDT Wed May 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Quick update to add thunderstorms to all areas this morning. A lot
of buildups seen this morning, and we have already seen a
thunderstorm develop over Galena Ridge west of Reno. The overall
forecast remains on track. While cloud cover may be an issue for
some areas this morning, there are many breaks currently. Some
strong storms will occur, and it still looks most likely from
Mineral County north into Pershing County where the most breaks
are this morning. There is also a noticeable break north of Reno
from Eastern Plumas and Lassen Counties into the Black Rock
Desert. If this lasts, strong storms are possible here as well.
Main threats will be gusty winds, and pea to marble hail.

With more breaks this morning, heavy rain could be more of an
issue this afternoon with stronger storms. Something to watch
for...X

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 AM PDT Wed May 16 2018/

SHORT TERM...

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected
throughout the region today. The main weather threats today will
be periods of heavy rain, possibility of accumulating small hail
(snow above ~8-8500'), and lightning. Ponding on roads, and low
visibility will likely be the biggest hazards for transportation
with the potential for isolated minor to moderate flash
flooding depending on just how much storms are able to develop.

Precipitation is expected to start in the late morning in the
Sierra and central western Nevada with a few hours of heavy rain
and high elevation snow, especially around the Tahoe Basin and
in the Reno/Carson City area. The area with the most persistent
signal for significant heavy rain potential and runoff concerns
is around Churchill and Pershing Counties during the late
afternoon and into the early evening. It's also possible the
northern Sierra and Lassen counties could be a heavy rain threat
later in the afternoon, but clouds will have a better chance of
inhibiting convection in that area.

The cut-off low pressure that has been spinning over the region
this last week is finally being pushed north of the Nevada border
this morning as another area of low pressure is currently moving
into the central California coast. This will create a wide area of
divergence aloft over the region and bring a new round of upper
level forcing. Clouds are expected to inhibit some storm
development today, but it currently looks like there will be
enough clearing and instability to get stronger storms to form,
especially around Mono/Mineral counties where the best chance for
clear skies will be this morning.

Model simulations are pointing towards the possibility of a
mesoscale complex of storms developing around Mineral county this
afternoon and moving into Churchill and Pershing counties later
in the day. This type of convective development is very difficult
to predict but most models are simulating a similar scenario with
the potential for 1-2 inches of precipitation if this feature
develops.

One question that persists today is how much cloud cover inhibits
surface heating that could add to the instability. The band of
light showers in the region overnight moved north faster than
models had forecast with current IR satellite observations showing
good clearing in the southern part of the CWA. It is really
difficult to say how much increasing cloud cover could hamper
storm development, but the latest guidance is pointing towards
some strong thunderstorm development today.

Lighter showers are expected on Thursday with only a slight chance
of thunderstorm development. By Friday it looks like the main
area of concern will be in the central and southern Sierra where
thunderstorms could develop with potential for heavy rain and high
elevation snow. -Zach

LONG TERM...Saturday into next week...

It is slowly becoming a bit clearer on the timing of the upper low,
with the models and ensembles in better agreement for the weekend.
They are also in better agreement with timing of the next low for
Monday into Tuesday, although the track is still hazy.

For the weekend, the GFS/EC have a weak wave moving through in light
west flow aloft between the upper lows. Instability is not overly
impressive, but will keep the slight chance to low chance for the
Sierra and adjacent eastern slopes. Sunday the low approaches, but
the southwest flow ahead of it will increase. For now, the track
appears to be toward the SF bay area which would put the best
forcing north of a KSVE-KLOL line, but this could change. With the
stronger SW flow, Sierra convection will be hard pressed to form
unless it's early in the afternoon. Have the best chances east of
there and then where the best forcing is for Sunday. SW winds will
make a decent appearance, with peak gusts of 25-30 mph. Keep in
mind, this is the best idea for now, but with the way the models
have been changing, this forecast may be way off.

Monday into Tuesday, the area will be affected by the upper low.
Where it tracks will determine best chances. It could end up being
similar to what we see tomorrow, or just generic thunderstorms. Will
keep the chance pops going both days area-wide with a decrease
Wednesday as the low pulls away. Temperatures will be near average
through the period, although Monday could be cooler depending on
track of the low. X

AVIATION...
FG will continue around the Tahoe terminals and Sierra Valleys this
morning with LIFR conditions. Expect it to burn off between 15=16Z.

The upper low will move in today with High chances of SHRA and
embedded TSRA for Reno-Tahoe area 17-23Z, about 80-90% for each
terminal. Some small hail is also likely to occur with MVFR to
local IFR conditions and mtn obscuration in the showers/storms.
These showers and storms will move north and east during the
evening. 70-90% chances for periods of MVFR CIGS/VIS at
KSVE/KLOL/KNFL 23-06Z this evening. KMMH/KHTH will still see storms
around, but chances of those terminals being affected are less, 40-
50% and 18-23Z. Winds will be light outside of thunderstorms, where
peak gusts could approach 35-40 kts.

More thunderstorms Thursday, but not as widespread with chances 40-
50% for any terminal. Wind gusts to 40kts and small hail primary
threats. Thunderstorm threat a little less Friday into Saturday
before possibly increasing again early next week with another upper
low. X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
Issued by National Weather Service Elko NV
1137 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

NVZ004-161900-
Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake NV-
1137 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CHURCHILL COUNTY
UNTIL NOON PDT...

At 1136 AM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of New Pass Summit, moving north at 5 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Churchill County.

LAT...LON 3948 11764 3946 11769 3955 11780 3959 11759
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 163DEG 6KT 3952 11768

86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
Issued by National Weather Service Elko NV
1153 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

NVZ003-161930-
Greater Reno-Carson City-Minden Area NV-
1153 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL WASHOE COUNTY UNTIL
1230 PM PDT...

At 1153 AM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wingfield Springs, or 13 miles northeast of Reno, moving northwest at
5 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts 30 to 40 mph will be possible with
this storm along with brief heavy rain.

Locations impacted include...
Spanish Springs.

LAT...LON 3965 11957 3962 11962 3969 11973 3974 11958
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 151DEG 6KT 3968 11963

86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
Issued by National Weather Service Elko NV
1214 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

NVZ004-161945-
Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake NV-
1214 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL CHURCHILL COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 PM PDT...

At 1214 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of New Pass Summit, moving north at 20 mph.

Wind gusts 30 to 40 mph, pea sized hail, and moderate rain will be
possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Churchill County.

LAT...LON 3960 11748 3958 11747 3953 11750 3954 11752
      3950 11761 3972 11781 3975 11749 3972 11749
      3968 11746 3964 11748 3962 11746
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 168DEG 19KT 3960 11760

86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
Issued by National Weather Service Elko NV
1216 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

NVZ004-161945-
Western Nevada Basin and Range including Pyramid Lake NV-
1216 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PERSHING COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 PM PDT...

At 1216 PM PDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 29
miles east of Gerlach, moving northwest at 5 mph.

Wind gusts 30 to 40 mph, pea sized hail, and moderate rain will be
possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Pershing County.

LAT...LON 4060 11875 4058 11879 4062 11887 4067 11876
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 147DEG 5KT 4061 11879

86

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
Issued by National Weather Service Elko NV
1224 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

CAZ071-NVZ003>005-162115-
Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties-Western Nevada Basin
and Range including Pyramid Lake-Northern Washoe County-Greater
Reno-Carson City-Minden Area-
1224 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN PLUMAS...
SOUTHEASTERN LASSEN...NORTHWESTERN CHURCHILL...NORTHEASTERN STOREY...
WASHOE...WESTERN PERSHING AND NORTH CENTRAL LYON COUNTIES...

At 1221 PM PDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 28 miles northwest of Imlay to near
Derby Dam. Movement was northwest at 30 mph. This line of showers
and thunderstorms are moving toward Pyramid Lake.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Pyramid Lake, Doyle, Herlong, Gerlach, Sparks, Fernley, Silver
Springs, Frenchman Lake, Sutcliffe, Nixon, Hallelujah Junction,
Spanish Springs, Chilcoot-Vinton, Lemmon Valley-Golden Valley, State
Line Peak, Juniper Mountain and Frenchman Campground.

If you are on or near Pyramid Lake, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4156 11963 4135 11930 4096 11933 4096 11879
      4085 11878 4085 11855 3940 11921 4002 12058
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 126DEG 26KT 4083 11864 3955 11945

JRM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
Issued by National Weather Service Elko NV
1230 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

NVZ001-162015-
Mineral and Southern Lyon Counties-
1230 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MINERAL COUNTY...

At 1229 PM PDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hawthorne, or
31 miles northeast of Bodie, moving north at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hawthorne and Hawthorne Industrial Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3843 11838 3840 11858 3865 11878 3872 11836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 165DEG 13KT 3849 11855

JRM