Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Reno, NV

810 
WGUS75 KREV 202301
FFSREV

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
401 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2018

CAC051-NVC005-210015-
/O.CON.KREV.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180721T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mono CA-Douglas NV-
401 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM PDT FOR
NORTHERN MONO AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 357 PM PDT, automated weather observation equipment of the 
Slinkard Fire burn scar shows almost 0.80 inches of rain has fallen 
in the last hour. Additional rain is likely late this afternoon as 
thunderstorms continue to redevelop and lift north across the area. 

Any additional rain on the already wet slopes of the Slinkard Fire 
burn scar could cause debris flows that reach Highway 395. Debris 
flows can consist of rock, mud, vegetation and other loose materials.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Topaz Lake and Junction U.S 395 And CA 89. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move away from recently burned areas. Life-threatening flooding of 
creeks, roads and normally dry washes is likely. The heavy rains 
will likely trigger rockslides, mudslides and debris flows in steep 
terrain, especially in and around these areas.

&&

LAT...LON 3865 11961 3867 11961 3871 11958 3871 11954
      3863 11952 3861 11955

$$

914 
WGUS75 KREV 210009
FFSREV

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
509 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2018

CAC051-NVC005-210018-
/O.EXP.KREV.FF.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180721T0015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mono CA-Douglas NV-
509 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHERN MONO AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM PDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Runoff from the previous storms may still cause minor flows 
in a few of the drainages along Highway 395, but no significant 
debris flows are expected. 

LAT...LON 3865 11961 3867 11961 3871 11958 3871 11954
      3863 11952 3861 11955

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Reno NV
612 AM PDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.UPDATE...
A heavy smoke layer from the Ferguson Fire is sitting around
8-10000 feet ASL south of a Portola to Pyramid Lake line. This
layer is obscuring the mountain tops, but as the area warms
the smoke will be seen at the surface. Air quality will be much
poorer today as a result. HRRR smoke runs show it mixing out some
along with the west winds in the afternoon and evening. However,
the Sierra Crest south of Tahoe will likely remain smoked in.

Haze will be present for all areas. Smoke from the southern Oregon
fires will also create hazy conditions near the Oregon Border.
Updates out to increase the amount of smoke today. X

&&

.AVIATION...
Smoke from the Ferguson Fire may create some aviation impacts,
especially for KTRK-KTVL-KRNO-KCXP. The smoke layer is about 4000
feet AGL and will mix to the surface later this morning. Surface
vis likely to remain VFR, but slantwise visibility can be
restricted due to the reflectance of the particulates. X

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 225 AM PDT Fri Jul 20 2018/

SYNOPSIS...

High temperatures will lower a few degrees heading into the weekend
but will still remain hot and above average for mid July. Moisture
will be on the increase which will provide increasing chances for
thunderstorms. Storms may bring heavy rainfall with an increased
flash flooding potential. Hot weather returns from the middle to the
end of next week with a drying trend looking likely.

SHORT TERM...

The main focus in the short term will be an upper level ridge that
will begin to shift eastward and settle over the four corners
region. This will allow temperatures to decrease a few degrees but
hot nonetheless with mid to upper 90s expected into the weekend.

As the ridge slides eastward, increased moisture will filter into
the region which will increase chances and coverage for
thunderstorms this weekend. Coverage extends farther north today
with storms extending through the Tahoe Basin and roughly to Pyramid
Lake through about I-80 across the western Nevada Basin and Range.

Atmospheric moisture will be on the increase through the weekend so
storms will become quite wet and capable of producing heavy rainfall
and flash flooding concerns due to potential training storms, ample
moisture, and increased instability. Despite all this, dry lightning
strikes outside of the rain core could still potentially ignite new
fires but a widespread dry lightning outbreak is not expected.

Thunderstorm coverage is likely to increase Saturday into
Sunday with upper level waves potentially contributing to nocturnal
thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday night. Both Saturday and
Sunday look to be particularly active the the main threats being
flash flooding, hail, and abundant lightning.

Smoke and haze mainly from the Ferguson Fire in California will
continue to impact portions of the region, possibly through the
weekend particularly with copious amounts of smoke emitted yesterday.
Check with your county for the latest air quality. Fuentes

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
Made a few changes to the forecast for next week as the model suite
has shown some changes. The first was to expand coverage of
thunderstorms back to the Oregon border for Monday and show a slower
decrease in coverage through Wednesday. The high over Arizona/New
Mexico is still expected to move west, just a bit slower. This would
keep more of a south flow and enough moisture for more thunderstorms.

Then for next week, the high is expected to remain to our south and
east with a light southwest flow aloft. Heights are not as high as
previous runs, with the GFS, GEFS and EC ensemble showing the lower
heights. Temps will still be hot, but it's not looking near as hot
as this past week. Cooled temperatures a couple degrees, and more in
line with the latest guidance. The EC is the outlier right now with
the high centered more toward Nevada.

With the light southwest flow and warmer temps aloft with the ridge,
thunderstorm coverage will decrease. It will become limited to
Mono/Mineral Counties by Wednesday afternoon. X

AVIATION...

VFR through the weekend with light winds outside of thunderstorms.
TSRA continue to be the main issue with most storms today near and
south of Highway 50 once again. About a 30-40% chance of a direct
hit on the KMMH-KTVL-KCXP terminals. Further north, only a 15-20%
chance for KTRK-KRNO with minimal chances north of I-80. Tstorm
threats will be wind gusts to 45 kts along with brief heavy rain and
small hail. Best chance for storms 21-01Z today.

Better chances for storms Saturday and Sunday with a 30-40% chance
for any one terminal seeing a hit. The storm threats remain the
same, although with increased moisture gusts may not be as strong,
35-40 kts. X

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Reno NV
1131 AM PDT FRI JUL 20 2018

CAZ072-073-NVZ001-003-202130-
Greater Lake Tahoe Area CA-Mono CA-Greater Reno-Carson City-
Minden Area NV-Mineral and Southern Lyon Counties NV-
1131 AM PDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...

Thunderstorms are developing early this afternoon in Mono, Mineral
and southern Lyon counties. Storms are expected to become stronger
through the afternoon and spread north towards I-80.

Nickel size hail, frequent lightning, and wind gusts up to 50 mph
will be possible with these storms. Localized flash flooding will
also be possible, especially in steep terrain and over wildfire burn
scars.

Locations impacted include...
Mammoth Lakes, Bodie, Chalfant, Crowley Lake, Sonora Pass, Benton,
June Lake, Bridgeport, Lee Vining, Twin Lakes, Toms Place, Mono Lake,
Coleville, Topaz Lake, Hawthorne, Yerington, Wellington, Tioga Pass,
Smith and Oasis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

During a thunderstorm, seek shelter inside a sturdy structure and
stay away from windows. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. Hikers and campers should seek shelter in a vehicle if
possible.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 11885 3759 11903 3774 11913 3771 11923
      3775 11926 3779 11920 3788 11920 3795 11932
      3804 11931 3820 11963 3845 11968 3873 11999
      3909 11911 3810 11811 3789 11835 3789 11842
      3747 11783 3746 11784
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 240DEG 0KT 3887 11906

ZT