Wind Chill Advisory 3, NWS Raleigh, NC

Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Cumberland County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Edgecombe County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Hoke County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Sampson County, NC, Scotland County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC, Wayne County, NC, Wilson County, NC

350 
WWUS42 KRAH 051455
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
955 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...Hazardous travel conditions and dangerous wind chill values
will continue to affect portions of central and eastern North
Carolina through Saturday morning...

NCZ007>011-022>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-052300-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180105T1500Z/
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180106T1200Z/
/O.CON.KRAH.WC.Y.0003.180106T0100Z-180106T1500Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-
Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-
Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl, 
Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney, Henderson, Norlina, Wise, 
Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston, Roanoke Rapids, Greensboro, 
Lake Townsend, High Point, Burlington, Graham, Chapel Hill, 
Carrboro, Bethesda, Durham, Research Triangle, Pilot, Ingleside, 
Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, 
Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Asheboro, Ulah, Archdale, Trinity, 
Hasty, Siler City, Bynum, Moncure, Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, 
Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma, Benson, Coats Crossroads, 
New Hope, Wilson, Albemarle, Plyler, Troy, Biscoe, Mount Gilead, 
Pekin, Badin Lake, Eldorado, Southern Pines, Pinehurst, Aberdeen,
Eagle Springs, Seven Lakes, Cumnock, Gum Springs, Sanford, 
Tramway, Dunn, Anderson Creek, Timberlake, Duncan, Erwin, Angier,
Lillington, Goldsboro, Wadesboro, Polkton, Rockingham, Hamlet, 
East Rockingham, Laurel Hill, Laurinburg, Antioch, 
Ashley Heights, Raeford, Rockfish, Silver City, Fayetteville, 
Fort Bragg, and Clinton
955 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Winter Weather Advisory for black ice. In addition, very
  cold wind chill values are expected again tonight, which can
  cause frostbite to exposed skin in as little as 20 to 30
  minutes. Minimum wind chill values will range around zero
  degrees tonight.

* WHERE...Most of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 7 AM EST 
  Saturday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 10 AM EST today 
  and again from 8 PM EST tonight through 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be particularly dangerous on
  shaded and hilly roadways, where black ice and solidified slush
  and snow cover will be most prevalent. The coldest wind chill
  values will likely occur tonight through early Saturday when 
  frost bite can occur in as little as 20 to 30 minutes to exposed
  skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for black ice means that travel will
remain hazardous due to ice and compacted snow on roadways.
Motorists are urged to use caution regardless of time of day
because temperatures will remain at or below freezing through the
daytime hours. The latest road conditions for North Carolina can
be found online at DriveNC.gov

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

NCZ021-038-052300-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180105T1500Z/
/O.CON.KRAH.WC.Y.0003.180106T0100Z-180106T1500Z/
Forsyth-Davidson-
Including the cities of Pfafftown, Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, 
Lexington, and Thomasville
955 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM 
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chill values are expected, which can 
  cause frostbite to exposed skin in as little as 20 to 30 
  minutes. Minimum wind chill values will range from five below 
  zero to five above zero.

* WHERE...Forsyth and Davidson Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST today and again from 8 PM EST tonight 
  through 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest wind chill values will likely 
  occur around sunrise through the morning rush today and then 
  again during the morning commute on Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

900 
WWUS42 KRAH 051921
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
221 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...Dangerous cold through the weekend for all areas, along with 
lingering hazardous travel issues due to ice and black ice over
portions of the region. 

NCZ022-023-039-073-074-083-060330-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180106T1200Z/
/O.CON.KRAH.WC.Y.0003.180106T0100Z-180106T1500Z/
Guilford-Alamance-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-
Including the cities of Greensboro, Lake Townsend, High Point, 
Burlington, Graham, Asheboro, Ulah, Archdale, Trinity, Albemarle,
Plyler, Troy, Biscoe, Mount Gilead, Pekin, Badin Lake, Eldorado, 
Wadesboro, and Polkton
221 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Winter Weather Advisory for black ice has been cancelled.
  However, bitterly cold temperatures with wind chill values of 5
  below to 5 above zero can be expected tonight into Saturday
  morning. This can cause frostbite to exposed skin in as little
  as 20 to 30 minutes. This is also a long duration extreme cold
  event. Check on the elderly and also ensure all heating sources
  are working properly. 

* WHERE...the Western Piedmont of North Carolina. 

* WHEN...Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM EST tonight through 10 AM 
  EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest wind chill values will likely 
  occur tonight through early Saturday when frost bite can occur 
  in as little as 20 to 30 minutes to exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves, and dress in layers. Check to ensure all heating sources 
are working properly. Check on your elderly neighbors.

$$

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-060330-
/O.EXT.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180106T1700Z/
/O.CON.KRAH.WC.Y.0003.180106T0100Z-180106T1500Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-
Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl, 
Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney, Henderson, Norlina, Wise, 
Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston, Roanoke Rapids, Chapel Hill, 
Carrboro, Bethesda, Durham, Research Triangle, Pilot, Ingleside, 
Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, 
Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Hasty, Siler City, Bynum, Moncure, 
Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma, 
Benson, Coats Crossroads, New Hope, Wilson, Southern Pines, 
Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Eagle Springs, Seven Lakes, Cumnock, 
Gum Springs, Sanford, Tramway, Dunn, Anderson Creek, Timberlake, 
Duncan, Erwin, Angier, Lillington, Goldsboro, Rockingham, Hamlet,
East Rockingham, Laurel Hill, Laurinburg, Antioch, 
Ashley Heights, Raeford, Rockfish, Silver City, Fayetteville, 
Fort Bragg, and Clinton
221 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
SATURDAY...

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Winter Weather Advisory for black ice, along with
  residual snow and ice on rural roads and in neighborhoods. In
  addition, bitterly cold wind chill values are expected again
  tonight, which can cause frostbite to exposed skin in as little
  as 20 to 30 minutes. Minimum wind chill values will range around
  zero degrees tonight, possibly as low as 5 below zero. This is
  also a long duration extreme cold event. Check to ensure all
  heating sources are working properly. Check on the elderly.  

* WHERE...Most of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until Noon EST Saturday.
  For the Wind Chill Advisory, from 8 PM EST tonight through 10 
  AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be particularly dangerous on
  shaded and hilly rural routes, neighborhoods, and hilly terrain.
  This is where residual snow and ice cover along with some black
  ice will create hazardous travel conditions. The coldest wind
  chill values will likely occur tonight through early Saturday
  when frost bite can occur in as little as 20 to 30 minutes to
  exposed skin. 
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Weather Advisory
for black ice means that travel will remain hazardous due to ice 
and compacted snow on roadways. Motorists are urged to use caution
regardless of time of day because temperatures will remain at or 
below freezing through the daytime hours. The latest road 
conditions for North Carolina can be found online at DriveNC.gov

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will 
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can 
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and 
gloves, and dress in layers. Check to ensure all heating sources 
are working properly. Check on your elderly neighbors.

$$

NCZ021-038-060330-
/O.CON.KRAH.WC.Y.0003.180106T0100Z-180106T1500Z/
Forsyth-Davidson-
Including the cities of Pfafftown, Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, 
Lexington, and Thomasville
221 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chill values are expected, which can cause
  frostbite to exposed skin in as little as 20 to 30 minutes.
  Minimum wind chill values will range from five below zero to
  five above zero. This is also a long duration extreme cold
  event. Check to ensure all heating sources are working properly.
  Check on your elderly neighbors. 
 
* WHERE...Forsyth and Davidson Counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM EST tonight through 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest wind chill values will likely
  occur tonight through early Saturday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves. Check to ensure all heating sources are working properly.
Check on your elderly neighbors.

$$

Badgett

742 
WWUS42 KRAH 060302
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1002 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...A fresh batch of arctic air will cause dangerously cold 
temperatures across central NC through Sunday. In addition, 
lingering hazardous travel issues will exists over portions of 
central NC due to snow packed secondary roads and black ice.


NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-061500-
/O.CON.KRAH.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180106T1500Z/
/O.CON.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180106T1700Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-
Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl, 
Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney, Henderson, Norlina, Wise, 
Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston, Roanoke Rapids, Chapel Hill, 
Carrboro, Bethesda, Durham, Research Triangle, Pilot, Ingleside, 
Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, 
Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Hasty, Siler City, Bynum, Moncure, 
Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma, 
Benson, Coats Crossroads, New Hope, Wilson, Southern Pines, 
Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Eagle Springs, Seven Lakes, Cumnock, 
Gum Springs, Sanford, Tramway, Dunn, Anderson Creek, Timberlake, 
Duncan, Erwin, Angier, Lillington, Goldsboro, Rockingham, Hamlet,
East Rockingham, Laurel Hill, Laurinburg, Antioch, 
Ashley Heights, Raeford, Rockfish, Silver City, Fayetteville, 
Fort Bragg, and Clinton
1002 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Winter Weather Advisory for black ice. In addition, very
  cold wind chill values are expected, ranging from 5 above zero
  to 5 below zero. 

* WHERE...Portions of central North Carolina.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until noon EST 
  Saturday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until 10 AM EST 
  Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be hazardous on shaded and 
  hilly roadways where black ice and compacted snow will be most 
  prevalent. The coldest wind chill values will occur overnight 
  through early Saturday morning when frostbite can occur in as 
  little as 20 to 30 minutes to exposed skin.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for black ice means that travel will
remain hazardous due to ice and compacted snow on roadways.
Motorists are urged to use caution regardless of time of day 
because temperatures will remain at or below freezing through the 
daytime hours. The latest road conditions for North Carolina can 
be found online at DriveNC.gov

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083-061500-
/O.CON.KRAH.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180106T1500Z/
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-
Anson-
Including the cities of Pfafftown, Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, 
Greensboro, Lake Townsend, High Point, Burlington, Graham, 
Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Ulah, Archdale, Trinity, 
Albemarle, Plyler, Troy, Biscoe, Mount Gilead, Pekin, Badin Lake,
Eldorado, Wadesboro, and Polkton
1002 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills between 5 above zero and 5 below
  zero.

* WHERE...Portions of the western Piedmont of central North 
  Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest wind chills will occur
  overnight through early Saturday morning. These cold wind chills
  will cause frostbite in as little as 20 to 30 minutes to 
  exposed skin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frost bite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

$$

524 
WWUS42 KRAH 061459
WSWRAH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
959 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018

...The Wind Chill Advisory and the Remaining Winter Weather 
Advisory for Black Ice Have Been Cancelled... 

.Moderating temperatures, diminishing snow cover and increased 
awareness will allow the Wind Chill Advisory and the remaining 
Winter Weather Advisory for Black Ice to be cancelled this morning...


NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-061600-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180106T1500Z/
/O.CAN.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180106T1700Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-
Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
Including the cities of Bushy Fork, Concord, Roxboro, Surl, 
Oxford, Butner, Creedmoor, Dabney, Henderson, Norlina, Wise, 
Afton, Warrenton, Lake Gaston, Roanoke Rapids, Chapel Hill, 
Carrboro, Bethesda, Durham, Research Triangle, Pilot, Ingleside, 
Louisburg, Franklinton, Nashville, Aventon, Red Oak, Sharpsburg, 
Spring Hope, Rocky Mount, Hasty, Siler City, Bynum, Moncure, 
Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary, Smithfield, Clayton, Flowers, Selma, 
Benson, Coats Crossroads, New Hope, Wilson, Southern Pines, 
Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Eagle Springs, Seven Lakes, Cumnock, 
Gum Springs, Sanford, Tramway, Dunn, Anderson Creek, Timberlake, 
Duncan, Erwin, Angier, Lillington, Goldsboro, Rockingham, Hamlet,
East Rockingham, Laurel Hill, Laurinburg, Antioch, 
Ashley Heights, Raeford, Rockfish, Silver City, Fayetteville, 
Fort Bragg, and Clinton
959 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind chill values ranging in the single digits this morning will
continue to moderate above advisory criteria into the teens and 
20s this afternoon. Therefore, the Wind Chill Advisory will be 
cancelled. 

It still will be very cold today and residents should dress
appropriately for the weather. In addition, given the prolonged
cold period, please check on neighbors and ensure pets are cared 
for.

In addition, the decreasing snow and ice cover along with another
day of melting and drying will reduce the threat of back ice.
While melt water will once again refreeze after the sun sets, the
extent of the threat and the increased awareness will allow the 
Winter Weather Advisory for Black Ice to be cancelled.

$$

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083-061600-
/O.CAN.KRAH.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180106T1500Z/
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-
Anson-
Including the cities of Pfafftown, Stanleyville, Winston-Salem, 
Greensboro, Lake Townsend, High Point, Burlington, Graham, 
Lexington, Thomasville, Asheboro, Ulah, Archdale, Trinity, 
Albemarle, Plyler, Troy, Biscoe, Mount Gilead, Pekin, Badin Lake,
Eldorado, Wadesboro, and Polkton
959 AM EST Sat Jan 6 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Wind chill values ranging in the single digits this morning will
moderate above advisory criteria into the teens and 20s this 
afternoon. Therefore, the Wind Chill Advisory will be cancelled. 

It still will be very cold today and residents should dress
appropriately for the weather. In addition, given the prolonged
cold period, please check on neighbors and ensure pets are cared 
for.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
352 AM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple of perturbations in northwesterly flow aloft will amplify
across the southern and central Appalachians through this morning.
Arctic high pressure will otherwise expand across the eastern U.S.
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM Friday...

...Wind Chill Advisory through 1000 AM this morning for all of
central NC for minimum wind chill readings of five below zero to
five above...

...Winter Weather Advisory for black ice and snow-covered roads for
all but Forsyth and Davidson Co. through Saturday morning...

Arctic airmass in place as a longwave upper trough remains over the
eastern portion of the CONUS. Main story for today will be
temperatures and winds as gusting up to 20 kts will be possible
today with high temperatures only in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Therefore we have a wind chill advisory in place until 15z today and
then will have another beginning at 1z Saturday as wind chills drop
to near or slightly below 0 degrees. In addition to the wind chill
advisory, we also have an ongoing winter weather advisory in effect
for black ice until 12z Saturday. Expect lows tonight to plunge once
again to 10 degrees, plus or minus a couple of degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Sunday night/...
As of 350 AM Friday...

Saturday and Saturday night: Saturday will feature the upper trough
trying to relax a little during the day before becoming much more
zonal by overnight Saturday. At the surface, the pressure gradient
will begin to relax which will help winds to back off from previous
days. With the surface high moving more directly overhead, expect
clear skies but the cold airmass will remain anchored in place and
temperatures will not change all that much from previous days with
highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and lows Saturday night back down
around 10 degrees. With the drop off in wind, it is unclear whether
or not a wind chill advisory will be needed for Saturday night into
Sunday morning. Regardless, wind chills will be in the single
digits. -Ellis

Sunday and Sunday night: Expect continued chilly and dry weather
through Sun night, but with an increase in both clouds and low level
moisture. The cold surface high over the Mid Atlantic Sun morning
shifts offshore during the day, yet leaves a smaller and modified
(but still cool) mesohigh/stable pool over central/E NC through Sun
night. Mid level troughing approaching from the west will lead to a
gradual increase/thickening of clouds, especially late Sun through
Sun night. Consensus of models keeps us dry through Sun night. The
low level thermal rebound begins in earnest, however thicknesses
will still start the day about 50 m below normal, with high
stability and anomalously cold near-ground air. Expect highs Sun
from the upper 20s to around 30 NE to the mid-upper 30s W. Lows from
the upper teens E to low-mid 20s W. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 320 AM Friday...

Mon-Tue: What looked like a pretty straightforward forecast
yesterday has started to go off the rails. The latest ECMWF, with
support from both the GEFS mean (and its trend) and the later hours
of the NAM, shows the full-latitude trough from Ontario to the NW
Gulf splitting, with a deepening southern portion which closes off
and drops SE into the Gulf through mid week. This results in a much
weaker and disorganized frontal system, with the polar stream
portion of the trough and its cold front sweeping quickly east
through the Northeast, while the N Gulf low and is associated
surface low hold well to our SW, leaving NC in a regime of poor low-
level moisture influx, a weaker wind field through the column
(including a broad weak mid level shear axis through the area),
limited to absent forcing for ascent. The ECMWF has been trending in
this direction for the last few runs, and the support of the GEFS
boosts confidence in a downward trend in precip chances. Still
expect mostly cloudy skies Mon/Tue, but have trimmed pops back from
likely to chance (20-40%) throughout the event, with pops arriving
in the W CWA Mon morning before expanding across the rest of the
area Mon afternoon/night, ending with just a slight chance pop Tue.
The ECMWF depicts a mild surface high building in from the NW Tue,
with possible easterly low level flow indicating at least some
cloudiness. Highs 39-48 Mon increasing to 48-55 Tue as the thickness
surge continues.

Wed-Thu: The recent model trends lead to reduced confidence in the
Wed/Thu forecast, but at this time, following the ECMWF, it appears
that the aforementioned surface high will move to a center position
over the Northeast Wed, as it ridges SSW through NC in a wedge-like
fashion. This high should then be progressive and shift offshore,
allowing for a southeasterly low level feed of Atlantic moisture
into the area. Will bring in low chance pops for Thu. With expected
partly to mostly cloudy skies balanced with the lack of a polar air
source, expect temps to be fairly close to normal, perhaps above
normal on Thu as another mid level trough shifts into the Plains,
inducing downstream ridging over the Carolinas. Again, though,
confidence in the details here is lower than usual. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1250 AM Friday...

24 Hour TAF Period: Wind will be the main story for the aviation
forecast this morning as some sporadic gusts overnight of up to 20
kts can be expected. These gusts will become more common after
sunrise through much of the day today. Indications of some
orographic cirrus starting to develop over upstate South Carolina
and this could spread northward throughout the evening possibly
bringing some high ceilings to central NC but with little
consequence to aviation.

Long term: VFR conditions can be expected through Monday when the
next frontal system is expected to move in from the west.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RDU Records:

Date     |  Low  Year  |  Low Max  Year
------------------------------------------
01/05    |   6   1981  |    27     1959
01/06    |   7   1924  |    24     1924
01/07    |   9   2014  |    21     1988
01/08    |   7   1970  |    20     1970
01/09    |   0   1970  |    20     1970

GSO Records:

Date     |  Low  Year  |  Low Max  Year
------------------------------------------
01/05    |   3   1918  |    22     1919
01/06    |   5   1924  |    27     1988
01/07    |   5   2014  |    21     1988
01/08    |   6   2015  |    19     1970
01/09    |   2   1970  |    20     1970

FAY Records:

Date     |  Low  Year  |  Low Max  Year
------------------------------------------
01/05    |  10   1920  |    32     1920
01/06    |   8   1924  |    27     1912
01/07    |  12   2014  |    28     2014
01/08    |  13   2015  |    28     2017
01/09    |   9   1970  |    25     1973

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ007>011-
022>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089.
Wind Chill Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Saturday for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-
089.

&&

$$ SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...Ellis
SHORT TERM...Ellis/Hartfield
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Ellis
CLIMATE...KCP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
923 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

NCZ007>011-022>028-039>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-060230-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-
Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
923 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Chill Advisory.

Continued frigid and dangerously cold conditions will remain in
central NC through Monday morning.

NCZ021-038-060230-
Forsyth-Davidson-
923 PM EST Thu Jan 4 2018

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Chill Advisory.

Continued frigid and dangerously cold conditions will remain in
central NC through Monday morning.