Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
300 PM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled surface front across central North Carolina coupled with a
moisture rich air mass will cause unsettled weather conditions
across the region through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

Convectively active weather pattern for much of central NC
anticipated for tonight. Latest meso analysis depicts the maxima
instability axis along our southern tier, then extending newd into
the central Coastal Plain. This axis in conjunction with a low level
trough aligned in similar fashion. Weak confluence along this
feature should be sufficient to initiate/sustain scattered
convection through the early evening hours. Steering flow rather
weak (~10-15mph). The slow movement coupled with the abundant
moisture in place will lead to localized excessive rainfall, with
amounts of one-two inches falling in less than an hour.

Across portions of the western and northern Piedmont, a slightly
more stable/drier air mass will inhibit convective development due
to the lack of a low level focus. Will likely need outflow
boundaries from the the convection farther to the south to aid in
the initiation of convection over this region late this afternoon or
not until early evening.

Later tonight, a series of weak perturbations in the sw flow aloft
interacting with the moisture rich air mass will be enough to
trigger scattered showers/isolated t-storms late this evening into
the overnight. The convection may become more concentrated over the
southeast counties well after midnight, in response to a stronger
perturbation lifting nwd along the GA/SC coast.

Overnight temperatures near 70-lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

The approach of a s/w, currently crossing/exiting the MO Ozarks this
afternoon, will serve to strengthen/enhance the mid level flow over
eastern NC after 12Z. This increased lift through the moist
atmosphere should produce scattered-numerous showers and storms over
central NC, with most of the showers/storms concentrated along and
east of I-95. If later model runs continue to advertise this set-up,
a Flash Flood Watch may be necessary for that portion of the
forecast area, especially if heavy rain falls over this section late
this afternoon/tonight.

Expect convective coverage to decrease temporary lull in the e
Monday night as mid/upper level support wanes. Still, enough
instability and weak confluence along weakening outflow boundaries
will sustain a few convective cells into the late night hours. Min
temps near 70-lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

No changes to longer range forecast as a trough to our west and a
subtropical ridge to our east keeps central NC in a south to
southwest flow from Tuesday through Sunday. Convection may produce
torrential rainfall each afternoon and evening with potential for
flash flooding.

Waves of energy in the flow around the trough to our west will lift
by to our north, with central NC under the right entrance region of
each jet steak.  Consequently, the combination of the moist flow,
low level convergence, and occasional upper support will result in
daily rain chances for our area during the long term period.  Highs
generally will be around normal, but will also depend on timing and
location of rain and cloud cover. Near normal low temps each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 740 AM Sunday...

Areas of fog and stratus, in northeasterly low level flow down the
srn middle Atlantic coast and into e-cntl NC, will gradually
disperse/mix out through 14Z. Thereafter, a short period of MVFR
ceilings will be possible, as that moisture is heated and cumulus
cloud bases develop between 14-17Z. Additionally, the continued
presence, and strengthening this morning of a surface front --and
associated convergence-- will force the development of scattered to
numerous showers and storms throughout the TAF period, but with
greatest coverage and intensity between 19Z this afternoon and 03Z
this evening. Areas of IFR-MVFR stratus, and perhaps patchy fog,
will redevelop throughout cntl NC tonight, with some lingering MVFR
ceilings through 15-16Z Mon.

Outlook: The regime of late night-early morning low clouds and fog,
and an above average probability of showers and storms maximized
each afternoon-evening, will persist through at least mid-week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KFAY ASOS is without power and will be out of service until power is
restored.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...FRANKLIN
AVIATION...MWS
EQUIPMENT...RAH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-300800-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
400 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

An unsettled and wetter than average pattern over the Appalachians
and eastern U.S. will result in episodes of heavy rainfall and a risk
of flooding in central NC each day next week, with the greatest risk
Tuesday and Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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