Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
320 PM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface front will linger over the eastern half of the
Carolinas through Sunday. This boundary will provide a focus for the
development of mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms through
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Saturday...

Latest meso analysis suggest the greatest low level convergence in a
zone from the Raleigh-Durham area northeastward up into the northern
Coastal Plain. This region in a pocket of abundant moisture with
support from a weak mid level trough and modest upper divergence.
Thus, though 23Z, expect the greatest concentration of convection to
occur over this region, with scattered convection probable elsewhere
east of highway 1. Closer to the Yadkin/Pee Dee River, the
atmosphere is not as unstable and the forcing is notably weaker
compared to locations farther east. Thus, plan to graduate PoPs from
slight/low end chance in the far west to high end likely or
categorical in the northeast. The cluster of showers and storms may
lead to localized flooding since the atmosphere is well saturated
(PW values east of highway 1 hovering around 1.8 inches).

Outflow from the convection in the Coastal Plain will likely
initiate additional scattered convection over portions of the
Sandhills and eastern Piedmont this evening. This batch of
convection should gradually dissipate after midnight. For the
remainder of the overnight, expect a shower or two under varying
degrees of cloudiness. Similar to this morning, areas of low clouds
will materialize close to daybreak. Overnight temperatures will vary
from the upper 60s NW to near 70-lower 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Saturday...

The Bermuda high positioned to our east and a l/w trough over the
lower OH and TN Valleys to our west will maintain a plume of
abundant moisture over the Carolinas Sunday and Sunday night. A
persistent mid level shear axis immediately west of central NC will
maintain a sfc reflection in the form of a sfc trough over the
Piedmont. This set-up will lead to a decent chance for scattered-
numerous showers and storms. Similar to this afternoon, the clusters
will lead to localized flooding. Bulk shear values are projected to
be a little higher (25-30kts) which may lead to the convection to
organize into broken bands. If this materializes, the threat for
flooding will increase.

The mid level shear axis may become energized Sunday night as
another disturbance lifts nwd from the FL Atlantic coast. This
interaction may permit scattered convection to persist well into
Sunday night.  If so, will need to monitor for localized excessive
rainfall. This threat would be highest along any remnant outflow
boundaries from earlier convection.

Temperatures Sunday will be tempered a bit from abundant early
morning cloud coverage, and the onset of scattered convection by mid
afternoon. Highs Sunday 85-90. Lows Sunday night near 70-lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...

Forecast in the longer range remains on track with a very warm and
wet pattern likely across central North Carolina Monday through
Saturday.

A trough will translate across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday and
Wednesday and into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley Thursday before
weakening/lifting into New England.  Concurrently a strong sub-
tropical ridge will build across the western N. Atlantic. Confluent
deep layer flow between the two will direct a feed of both Atlantic
and Gulf moisture northward along the Appalachians and much of the
eastern U.S., with resultant above average probabilities of
convection and risk of excessive rainfall over central NC through at
least mid-week.  Latest model guidance suggests an increasing
influence of the western Atlantic ridge that may yield a slightly
drier regime by the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM Saturday...

The greatest threat for adverse aviation conditions will be in the
vicinity of heavy showers and thunderstorms that will occur through
this evening, roughly along and east of highway 1. These clusters of
convection may affect flight operations in/out of KRDU, KFAY and
KRWI. In proximity of the convection, anticipate low end MVFR or IFR
ceilings and visibilities. At the sfc, convective wind gusts should
be less than 30 kts. Otherwise, VFR conditions should occur with the
highest probability in vicinity of the Triad terminals.

The bulk of the convection will dissipate within a couple hours of
sunset. Overnight, areas of low clouds and fog will develop,
resulting in low end MVFR/IFR parameters, mainly due to ceilings,
primarily in vicinity of KRWI, KFAY, and possibly KRDU. The low
ceilings should lift by 15Z Sunday.

The first part of the week will remain unsettled with greater than
normal probabilities for MVFR/IFR parameters due to ceilings and
scattered-numerous convection. A very moist air mass coupled with an
area of low pressure to our west will maintain the less than
favorable aviation conditions.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS/Franklin
AVIATION...WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1033 AM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083-084-290945-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-
Richmond-
1033 AM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

An unsettled and wetter than average pattern over the Appalachians
and eastern U.S. may result in episodes of heavy rainfall and
flooding in central NC Sunday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089-290945-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-
Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-
Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
1033 AM EDT Sat Jul 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A very moist and unstable air mass will provide an atmosphere ripe
for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon through this evening. Thanks to relatively light steering
winds, the heavier showers and storms will produce locally excessive
rainfall. Rainfall amounts of up to two inches in less than an hour may
occur with the stronger storms. This will lead to flooding of
streets and poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

An unsettled and wetter than average pattern over the Appalachians
and eastern U.S. may result in episodes of heavy rainfall and
flooding in central NC Sunday through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

NCZ041-042-281830-
Johnston NC-Wake NC-
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 203 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong slow moving
thunderstorm near Garner, or 9 miles southeast of Raleigh, moving
southeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, intermittent lightning strikes, and pockets
of heavy rainfall will be possible with this storm. Heavy rainfall
rates will likely reduce visibility on the roads, and may result in
ponding or flooding, especially in urban areas or poor drainage
areas. Use extra caution, especially if you are traveling.

Locations impacted include...
Garner and Clayton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3571 7863 3580 7844 3572 7832 3558 7853
      3569 7863
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 310DEG 8KT 3572 7855

MORROW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
217 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

NCZ086-088-281915-
Hoke NC-Cumberland NC-
217 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND AND
NORTHEASTERN HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 216 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong slow
moving thunderstorm near Fort Bragg, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, intermittent lightning strikes, and pockets
of heavy rainfall will be possible with this storm. Heavy rainfall
rates will, at times, reduce visibility, making travel hazardous.
Localized flooding will also be possible under the heaviest
downpours.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Fort Bragg, Pope AFB, Spring Lake, Eastover and Bonnie
Doone.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3501 7913 3505 7923 3514 7922 3517 7913
      3517 7912 3518 7911 3517 7910 3518 7910
      3521 7902 3523 7877 3498 7882
TIME...MOT...LOC 1816Z 274DEG 8KT 3512 7906

MORROW

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

NCZ028-043-282000-
Edgecombe NC-Wilson NC-
328 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...A DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
EDGECOMBE AND EAST CENTRAL WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 326 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Farmville, moving east at 5 mph.

Pea size hail, intermittent lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph, and
pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible with this storm. High
rainfall rates will cause dips in visibility and could lead to areas
of flooding. Use caution, especially if you're traveling.

Locations impacted include...
Macclesfield and Saratoga.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 7748 3576 7752 3563 7773 3565 7778
      3570 7778 3576 7765 3581 7743
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 270DEG 6KT 3567 7769

MORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
350 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     LIGHTNING        3 SW KNIGHTDALE         35.75N 78.52W
07/28/2018                   WAKE               NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 INJ ***
            A 41 YEAR OLD MALE WAS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING
            THIS AFTERNOON. HE HAS SINCE BEEN TAKEN TO
            THE HOSPITAL TO UNDERGO TREATMENT, AND HIS
            CONDITION IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

MORROW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
420 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

NCZ078-089-282045-
Sampson NC-Wayne NC-
420 PM EDT SAT JUL 28 2018

...A STRONG SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WAYNE
AND NORTHEASTERN SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a developing thunderstorm
11 miles west of Mount Olive, moving east at 10 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph, intermittent lightning, and heavy rainfall
will be possible with this storm. High rainfall rates will likely
lead to reduced visibilities and possibly localized flooding. Use
caution, especially if you are traveling.

Locations impacted include...
Hobbton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 7816 3518 7836 3524 7835 3525 7810
      3518 7810 3519 7816 3518 7817 3517 7816
      3512 7817 3509 7817 3508 7816
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 287DEG 7KT 3520 7828

MORROW