Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
105 AM EDT Mon Jul 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure across the Ohio Valley will move slowly
south across the southern Appalachians into the middle of the work
week. A deep, moist, southerly flow will extend across the
Carolinas through much of the work week, then lift out to the NE
and weaken Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1055 PM Sunday...

It's been a very active afternoon and evening across central NC
with numerous thunderstorms producing severe weather and some
flash flooding. The upper-level disturbance associated with the
main area of convection that impacted central NC earlier today is
lifting into southwestern VA. The upper-level low centered over
southern OH and northeast KY and the associated 35 to 30 kts of
flow at 500 hPa will rotate additional disturbances across the
Southeast overnight. Fortunately, most of these disturbances
will not impact most of central NC overnight but they are noted
in regional GOES-east water vapor imagery and on the 1.5 PVU
surface across western NC/VA, southeast GA, and off the Carolina
coast. With a reduced amount of forcing compared to last night,
expect fewer showers and thunderstorms. However, convection
allowing models continue to indicate numerous showers and
thunderstorms will spread across the coastal region overnight,
perhaps extending westward into the Coastal Plain. The air mass
in the Coastal Plain eastward remains moderately unstable with
MLCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg which with some forcing
should support the development of showers and storms, especially
after 1 or 2 AM. The vast majority of this convection should
exit the RAH CWA by 12Z Monday. Lows tonight will again range in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. -Blaes

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

Additional rounds/bands of scattered showers and tstms are expected
to develop and move northward across our area during the short term
period, thanks to deep moist southerly flow around the north-to-
south elongated closed low extending from the Great Lakes to the
Deep South.  Several short waves embedded within the larger
circulation will help trigger and focus these rounds of activity.
The main concern given this situation will be the risk for
repetitive moderate to heavy downpours, which could lead to
localized flooding. Right now, it's difficult to pin down which
areas in our CWA will see these bands of rain set up, but for now we
expect a general 1-2 inches of rain across central NC, with spots
that see training cells receiving well more than 2 inches of rain.
Highs on Monday will be dependent on rain and cloud cover, but in
general expecting highs in the 80s.  Lows Monday night in the low
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sunday...

The active/wet pattern is likely to continue through most/if not all
of the long term period as the area finds itself sandwiched between
a stalled mid/upper-level trough (west) and a sub-tropical Atlantic
High (east). This will exacerbate southerly/southwesterly fetch
across central NC, providing an airmass characterized by high PWAT
values (consistently in the 1.75 to 2.5 inch range) and persistent
diurnal shower/thunder chances. The airmass attempts to wash-out a
bit toward the end of the period as a frontal boundary approaches
the area from the northwest, however, models tend to agree with this
boundary stalling near/slightly north of the VA/NC border, keeping
us in the warm/humid/stormy airmass for the foreseeable future.

QPF amounts are going to be highly difficult to nail down due to the
convective nature of the precipitation. As an area average, expect
generally 1 to 3 inches of precipitation during this period. Higher
amounts will likely be located across the coastal plain with the
best moisture profile, and across the Piedmont/Triad region which
could see greater coverage thanks to mountain aided development each
afternoon. Flooding concerns will generally be locally dependent on
high rainfall rates and/or training storms across a particular area.
Currently, not a strong signal for potential river flooding
according to MMEFS, but with high QPF amounts expected across the
headwaters region in VA/western NC over the next 7 days, it could
easily transition into more of a concern eventually.

With boundary layer moisture ample through the period, thicknesses
are expected to remain generally near to slightly below normal,
thanks in a large part to persistent cloud cover and/or shower
development during prime daytime heating hours. Expect temperatures
generally in the low to mid 80s to begin the period, with a few
places touching 90 late week as the mid level flow flattens a bit,
and a mid to upper-level low is forecast to transverse through the
Great Lakes region by Friday/Saturday. Lows will generally settle a
bit warmer than normal, in the low to mid 70s during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 105 AM Monday...

Aided by upper support this morning, showers and thunderstorms
are expected in the eastern part of NC, as far west as KFAY and
KRDU. MVFR to IFR CIGS and VSBYS will accompany the showers/storms.
Low stratus is expected to reduce CIGS to LIFR in the KGSO/KINT
areas with MVFR VSBYS in fog through 14z.

A general return to VFR conditions is expected between 14z and
17z, then showers/storms are again expected to develop with
associated MVFR CIGS and VSYBS through this evening.

Beyond 06Z Tuesday...A deep southerly flow of moist and unstable
air will result in an unsettled period through the work week.
Showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon and
evening, combined with periods of low clouds and fog around daybreak
will result in a prolonged threat of adverse aviation conditions
through the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BLAES
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...BADGETT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1034 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

NCZ011-027-028-042-043-078-088-089-240245-
Halifax-Nash-Edgecombe-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-Cumberland-Sampson-
1034 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight. An
area of more widespread and significant storms may skirt the Coastal
Plain, especially east of Interstate 95, after midnight through
daybreak. Some of these storms will be capable of producing very
heavy rain, gusty winds in excess of 50 mph and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall during the work week. The greatest threat for
thunderstorms with heavy rain will be during the afternoon and
evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>077-083>086-240245-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-
Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
1034 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight. A
few storms could produce very heavy rain, gusty winds in excess of 50
mph and frequent lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall during the work week. The greatest threat for
thunderstorms with heavy rain will be during the afternoon and
evening hours each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1043 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N RAMSEUR             35.79N 79.64W
07/22/2018                   RANDOLPH           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON WHITES CHAPEL
            ROAD NEAR LOW BRIDGE ROAD.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1047 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW RANDLEMAN          35.78N 79.87W
07/22/2018                   RANDOLPH           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON EDEN FOREST DR
            NEAR PLAINFIELD ROAD.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1054 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE CONCORD           36.43N 79.04W
07/22/2018                   PERSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES WERE REPORTED DOWN NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF JACK HAMBRICK ROAD AND
            MORTON PULLIAM ROAD.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1059 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE RAMSEUR           35.74N 79.64W
07/22/2018                   RANDOLPH           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE WAS REPORTED DOWN ON REED CREEK RD
            NEAR JORDAN ROAD.

&&

BSD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1217 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

NCZ042-043-078-089-230515-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Wayne NC-Wilson NC-
1217 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN
SAMPSON...SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON AND WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM
EDT...

At 1217 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Walnut
Creek to Warsaw. Movement was north at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Smithfield, Wilson, Mount Olive, Fremont, Walnut Creek,
Micro, Selma, Pine Level and Kenly.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 7838 3582 7775 3573 7772 3568 7766
      3557 7782 3543 7783 3538 7780 3534 7782
      3518 7783 3515 7789 3517 7793 3516 7797
      3519 7802 3518 7807 3519 7816 3490 7815
      3487 7817
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 175DEG 34KT 3520 7792 3499 7812

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
121 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

NCZ040-041-076-077-088-230615-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-Cumberland NC-
121 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HARNETT...
NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...NORTHEASTERN LEE...SOUTHWESTERN WAKE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM EDT...

At 120 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles west of Lillington
to near Fort Bragg. Movement was north at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Lillington, Fort Bragg, Fuquay-Varina, Pope AFB, Apex,
Holly Springs, Spring Lake, Broadway and New Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
45 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3509 7909 3512 7911 3515 7911 3517 7910
      3519 7910 3520 7911 3573 7909 3570 7879
      3516 7886 3505 7909
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 184DEG 19KT 3539 7897 3514 7905

77