Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
735 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move south into northern NC tonight, then
stall over central NC Monday. The front will then drift south
Tuesday and Tuesday night.

&&

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 735 PM Sunday...

The very large severe storms that produced tree and crop damage over
the Coastal Plain and SE Sandhills have organized and were currently
tracking ESE along the NC Coast. Widely scattered strong to isolated
pulse type storms continued to develop over central NC. It appears
a limited isolated severe threat (mainly a pulse type damaging wind
threat) will continue along the pre-frontal trough that stretched SW
to NE across the Piedmont, and the outflow tracking NW toward this
trough over the eastern Piedmont. These may enhance convergence and
lift through mid to late evening. We will maintain the 20-30 POP
this evening, then reduce to less than 20 overnight. Lows in the
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 410 PM Sunday...

Potential for a convectively active day Monday-Monday night. Some
model guidance suggest a MCV crossing eastern KY/northeast TN Monday
morning, passing overhead late Monday afternoon through Monday
evening. The atmosphere Monday afternoon projected to be moderately
to strongly unstable with MLCAPE 3000-3500 J/kg across the southern
counties, in vicinity of the stalled sfc front. One element Monday
that we are lacking today is shear. The latest NAM suggest bulk
shear on the order of 35-40kts over the region late Monday-Monday
evening. If this materializes, should see convection organize into a
decent bow or a QLCS capable of producing significant wind damage.
In addition, any storm/cell that intersects the sfc boundary will
have the potential to develop low level rotation, supportive of
short lived weak tornadoes. Plan to highlight the wind threat in the
HWO while the tornado threat appears too minimal to mention at this
time.

The convective scenario has the potential to evolve into a heavy
rain event as storms may train eastward along the stalled boundary
across the south well into the night Monday night. Due to recent dry
conditions across sections of the southern Piedmont and Sandhills,
do not anticipate a flood watch though would not be surprised if a
few urban/small stream flood advisories issued.

Temperatures Monday afternoon should average about a category cooler
most locations in anticipation of more cloud coverage and expected
convection. Highs should vary from 85-90 across the north, and 90-95
degrees across the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 344 PM Sunday...

Tuesday and Tuesday night: The forecast for this period still remain
quite uncertain, as much of it will depend on what happens with the
MCS tracking through the Midwest into the TN Valley today/tonight.
Though the models differ, there is an indication that the upper
level wave and embedded disturbances will swing through portions of
central NC Tuesday into Tuesday evening. How long, where, and how
intense the convection is when it does so are hard to get a handle
on and will depend greatly on the surface boundary as convection
will be focused along it. There is a potential things could still be
quite active Tuesday, especially across the south and east, thus
have increased rain and thunder chances during that time. Keep in
mind, should the boundary set up along the SC/NC border, much of
Central NC could remain convection free. Temperatures will also
depend on the convection and associated cloud cover and outflow, but
for now expect Tuesday to be the "coolest" day of the period, with
highs in the mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday through Sunday: Another, deeper, low will progress
eastward out of the Northern High Plains and into the Great Lakes on
Tuesday night/Wednesday. The trough will swing through the area on
Wednesday, pushing the previous low offshore and bringing another
round of convection into central NC. The upper level ridge will then
once again build east and northward over the region over the weekend
as the piedmont trough once again sets up. Convection during this
period, aside from mentioned above, will primarily be diurnal in
nature. Temperatures are expected to increase once again for the end
of the week into the weekend, with highs returning to the mid 90s
and lows in the mid 70s. Though it's a bit far out in time, heat
indices on Friday could once again approach/exceed heat advisory
criteria for points between the Triangle and Fayetteville.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM Sunday...

Generally VFR conditions outside of widely scattered storms this
evening, will become VFR after midnight.

A greater threat for scattered convection appears likely
Monday into Monday night as an upper disturbance dives sewd across
our region during prime heating. This system has the potential to
trigger scattered strong-severe storms with wind gusts 40-55kts
possible along with some hail. This convective threat appears
greatest in the 20Z Monday-04Z Tuesday time frame, with scattered,
weaker convection possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning,
especially in vicinity of KFAY.

Convection should be less numerous from mid week and beyond as an
area of high pressure strengthens just north of our region. The
presence of this system should inhibit afternoon convective
development, especially across the northern counties, with isolated-
scattered convection possible late in the day-early evening across
the far south-southeast. Otherwise VFR parameters anticipated for
much of the remainder of the week.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett/mlm
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...BSD/WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
442 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

NCZ021>025-038>043-073>077-251000-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-
Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-
442 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday
afternoon into Monday evening. The main severe weather hazardous will
be locally damaging straightline winds and marginally large hail.
The severe weather threat appears greatest between 4 PM and 11 PM.
In addition, clusters of showers and thunderstorms late Monday night
will produce locally heavy rainfall, potentially leading to flooding
of streets and poor drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Monday afternoon into Monday
evening.

NCZ007>011-026>028-251000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
442 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ078-083>086-088-089-251000-
Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
442 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through 9
PM. The primary severe weather threat will be locally damaging
downburst winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday
afternoon through Monday evening. the primary severe weather hazards
will be damaging straightline winds and marginally large hail. The
severe weather threat appears greatest between 4 PM and 11 PM. Later
Monday night, clusters of showers and thunderstorms will produce
locally heavy rainfall, potentially leading to flooding of streets
and poor drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
702 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

NCZ008-025-026-041-242345-
Franklin NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Granville NC-
702 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN GRANVILLE...
NORTHEASTERN WAKE...SOUTHERN DURHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 701 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Durham, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Wake Forest, Rolesville, Youngsville, Falls Lake,
Gorman, and William B Umstead State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 7824 3580 7836 3593 7898 3611 7894
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 282DEG 40KT 3601 7887

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
723 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

NCZ022>024-250015-
Guilford NC-Alamance NC-Orange NC-
723 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALAMANCE...ORANGE AND
EAST CENTRAL GUILFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 723 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Elon College, or near Burlington, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chapel Hill, Burlington, Graham, Hillsborough, Carrboro, Mebane, Elon
College, Gibsonville, Haw River and Swepsonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 7898 3586 7904 3586 7908 3597 7959
      3615 7957
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 279DEG 24KT 3605 7950

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
729 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

NCZ075-077-086-088-250030-
Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Moore NC-Cumberland NC-
729 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MOORE...
SOUTHWESTERN HARNETT...NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND AND NORTHERN HOKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 729 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Southern Pines, moving east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Southern Pines, Fort Bragg, Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Pope
AFB, Spring Lake, Whispering Pines, Pinebluff and Foxfire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3513 7956 3529 7955 3527 7886 3504 7891
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 279DEG 24KT 3521 7942

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
730 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

NCZ073-074-250030-
Stanly NC-Montgomery NC-
730 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MONTGOMERY AND NORTHEASTERN
STANLY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM EDT...

At 730 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Albemarle, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Troy, Badin Lake, Biscoe, Plyler, Badin, Star, Richfield,
New London and Steeds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3548 7976 3539 7974 3521 7977
      3533 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 277DEG 24KT 3541 8023

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
826 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

NCZ040-250115-
Chatham NC-
826 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM COUNTY
UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 826 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Pittsboro, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsboro, Jordan Lake State Rec Area, Crosswinds Boating Center,
Bynum, Seaforth Boat Dock, Crosswinds Campground, Fearrington and
Lake Jordan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3586 7908 3587 7891 3563 7902 3578 7936
      3584 7933 3584 7924 3585 7924 3586 7925
      3588 7925
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 300DEG 12KT 3584 7924

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
845 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

NCZ041-250130-
Wake NC-
845 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL WAKE COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM
EDT...

At 845 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rdu International, or near Cary, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Cary, Garner, Rdu International, Morrisville, Knightdale,
Rolesville, Research Triangle, William B Umstead State Park and
Carpenter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 7835 3590 7834 3574 7840 3571 7847
      3567 7852 3581 7889 3587 7886 3587 7883
      3592 7881 3592 7876 3596 7872
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 283DEG 18KT 3587 7876

77