Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
331 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest this afternoon, and
then push southeast through central North Carolina tonight. This
front will settle across South Carolina Thursday through Friday, as
high pressure builds in from the northeast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

Mid afternoon meso analysis depicts a sfc boundary roughly west-to-
east just north of the VA/NC border. A moderately unstable
atmosphere lies south of this sfc feature with MLCAPE values 1500-
2000 J/kg across the region. Effective bulk shear on the order of 30-
35 kts confined to the far northeast quadrant of our forecast
region, with weaker shear noted elsewhere.

Convection developing along this sfc boundary, but also along a low
level trough between 925-850mb, stretching from the southern
Piedmont toward the Triangle region. Expect the showers and storms
to erupt shortly over the northern Coastal Plain where the better
shear and highest instability reside. Still appears the greatest
threat for an isolated severe storms will be roughly north and east
of Raleigh, with a slightly less chance over the remainder of the
Piedmont. Storms that are able to maintain an updraft of sufficient
depth for 15-20 minutes may produce hail. While current thinking is
that most of the hail will be small, some of the convective hail
parameters suggest hail to the size of quarters may occur northeast
of Raleigh. The damaging wind signal is not as strong, though
parameters suggest the wind threat will be highest across the far
northern Piedmont into the northern Coastal Plain.

Timing has not changed with the greatest coverage anticipated
through 9 PM, with a slow diminishing trend in coverage/intensity
thereafter. Still expect to see isolated/scattered showers occurring
overnight across the southern counties as the sfc front drapes
across this region.

Low level nely flow behind the boundary will advect moisture below
the developing frontal subsidence inversion to result in a layer of
stratus late overnight into early Thursday morning across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

Thursday and Thursday night, the sfc front should stall near or just
southwest of our southern counties. Moisture pooling in vicinity of
this feature should maintain mostly cloudy skies and a small threat
for showers and possibly a thunderstorms, most probable during the
afternoon hours. Otherwise northeast flow will temporarily usher a
drier low level air mass into at least the northeast third of
central NC. Potential for sfc dewpoints to lower into the upper
50s/around 60 from Raleigh north and east, and into the lower 60s in
the NW Piedmont and the central Coastal Plain around GSB. Though
afternoon temperatures will return to the mid 80s, the lower
dewpoints will result in comfortable humidity levels.

Much of the same Thursday night with more clouds SW and fewer NE.
Under clear skies and calm wind regime, some of the cooler spots
across the northern Coastal Plain into the northeast Piedmont should
dip into the upper 50s/around 60 for overnight low temperatures.
Elsewhere, min temps in the low and mid 60s will be common.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wednesday...

Within relatively slow, blocked flow aloft across the CONUS during
the medium range, the pattern over cntl NC will be dominated by a
broad, re-loading trough centered over the GOM/Gulf coast states,
and a downstream ridge extending across the top from the swrn N.
Atlantic and cntl/ern Caribbean Sea nwwd across the upr Midwest. The
(generally sly) flow between these two features will direct a plume
of tropical moisture characterized by precipitable water values of
1.75 to 2.5" from the nwrn Caribbean Sea nwwd across the sern U.S.,
especially by early next week.

At the surface, an initially cooler and drier continental air mass,
accompanying modifying surface high pressure off the srn middle
Atlantic coast, will extend wwd into NC on Fri. This ridge will then
drift east of Bermuda through the weekend, with progressively
modifying return flow throughout the sern U.S. through early next
week. (Possibly tropical) low pressure over the GOM this weekend
would likely meander slowly over the nrn GOM and Gulf coast states
through the period owing to the ridge downstream, and over the top.

Some "ring of fire" convection may skirt the wrn and srn Piedmont
late Fri-Fri night, in a developing warm/moist advection regime
directed there, with otherwise continued drier and more stable
conditions in closer proximity to the offshore (deep layer) ridging.
This regime will then likely edge ewd, with an associated good
chance of showers and storms across cntl NC, on Sat. There may be a
relative lull in convective probabilities/coverage, in briefly more
pronounced ridging aloft downstream of the GOM low pressure, on Sun.
It will then become increasingly unsettled, with high chance to
likely probabilities of showers/storms, maximized with diurnal
heating, Memorial Day through the middle of next week.

High temperatures are likely to be near to slightly above normal,
though modulated/hindered by convection/clouds especially early-mid
next week, while low temperatures are likely to be a category or
three above normal for the same reason.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM Wednesday...

 While VFR parameters will persist across central NC through
Thursday evening, there will be brief periods of MVFR/IFR ceilings.
Scattered convection this afternoon through early evening will
produce instance of sub VFR ceilings/visibilities. The threat for
convection appears highest in proximity of KRWI and KFAY, mainly
between 20Z through 24Z. In vicinity of the stronger convection,
wind gusts 30-35kts may occur along with small hail.

 After 06Z, areas of low stratus will develop in the NE low level
flow behind the departing sfc cold front. The threat for these low
ceilings appears greatest over all the region except the Triad
region, mainly between 09Z-14Z Thursday.

 A stable air mass will overspread the majority of the central NC
Thursday and Thursday night, maintaining the VFR conditions. The
only threat for isolated-scattered convection should be across the
southern Piedmont, well south of the Triad, and west of KFAY.

 The atmosphere is projected to become increasingly moist and
unstable from Friday and beyond, especially during the later half of
the holiday weekend. This should lead to extended periods of sub VFR
conditions, primarily related to ceilings.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
348 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078-240930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
348 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few strong to severe storms are possible through this evening over
roughly the northern half of central North Carolina, especially to
the north and east of Raleigh. Hail to the size of quarters and wind
gusts over 60 mph are possible. The severe weather threat will begin
to decrease shortly after sunset.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089-240930-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
348 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

An isolated strong thunderstorm with dime size hail and wind gusts
around 45 mph will be possible through 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
526 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

NCZ026-232215-
Franklin NC-
526 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 526 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Louisburg, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Pea size hail, heavy rain, and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Centerville and Ingleside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7821 3617 7803 3599 7815 3612 7829
      3619 7832 3626 7822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 310DEG 8KT 3618 7826

MORROW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
533 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

NCZ086-088-232215-
Hoke NC-Cumberland NC-
533 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND AND
SOUTHEASTERN HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 533 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Raeford, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raeford, Hope Mills, Silver City and Rockfish.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, and other light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 7893 3487 7892 3490 7894 3495 7903
      3486 7915 3497 7927 3510 7911 3485 7877
      3485 7883 3483 7890
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 303DEG 10KT 3501 7916

WSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
541 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

NCZ009-026-232215-
Franklin NC-Vance NC-
541 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN VANCE AND NORTH CENTRAL
FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 541 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kittrell, or 8 miles northwest of Louisburg, moving southeast at 15
mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Kittrell, South Henderson and Gillburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3628 7829 3627 7831 3626 7823 3619 7832
      3612 7829 3620 7851 3635 7851
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 304DEG 13KT 3620 7838

MORROW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
555 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

NCZ011-232300-
Halifax NC-
555 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN HALIFAX COUNTY
UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 555 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Scotland Neck, or 9 miles southeast of Halifax, moving southeast at
15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scotland Neck, Hobgood and Tillery.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 7731 3601 7740 3600 7743 3603 7746
      3604 7751 3608 7754 3609 7753 3610 7755
      3622 7764 3629 7741 3626 7741 3624 7738
      3621 7738 3619 7735 3619 7733 3617 7731
      3616 7727 3612 7724 3612 7725 3610 7723
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 335DEG 12KT 3622 7746

MORROW