Special Weather Statement, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
245 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move southeastward through the area tonight,
before dissipating on Friday. Bermuda high pressure will build in
from the east over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Thursday...

Little change from previous discussion. Leading edge of shortwave
trough and associated convection is starting to come into and across
the central and southern Appalachians. Satellite trends across the
region show cloud tops expanding and cooling east of the mtns.
Expect convective rain chances to increase late this afternoon and
into the evening as these advance east across the area, with the
strongest cells capable of producing hail and damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts.

Previous discussion... A shortwave across the eastern Great Lakes
this morning will become increasing sheared as it progresses
eastward into New England and the Northeast US today. Central NC
will find itself on the southern periphery of this wave with
attendant weak surface trough/front crossing the area late this
afternoon and evening.

Well removed from the better upper dynamics/forcing and shear
that will move through the NE US this afternoon and evening,
forcing across central NC will be rather weak, limited to mainly
weak near sfc convergence, as the surface trough crosses the area.
However, strong daytime heating, featuring afternoon temps in the
mid 80s, will result in steep low-level lapse rates. These steep low-
level rates when coupled with with BL dewpoints in the lower 60s,
will fuel moderate instability of 1500-2000 J/Kg that extends well
into the mixed phased region. Despite the deep westerly flow in
place, majority of the CAMS indicate a fairly congealed multi-cell
line segment crossing the area between 18z to 03z. Given 20 to 25
kts of deep layer shear, some of the strongest updrafts will have
the potential to produce severe weather, including, hail and
damaging wind gusts.

Plans with the late morning update is to increase to pops to
likely this afternoon through this evening.

In the wake of the convection, expect skies to clear late
evening/overnight with the potential for patchy late, especially in
areas where the heaviest rain occurs. Lows Friday morning
60-65.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1250 PM Thursday...

Central NC will be in a transitory weather pattern on Friday as the
front moves east of the area and surface high pressure begins to
build over the Atlantic. To the west, some shortwave energy over the
mountains may trigger some afternoon showers and thunderstorms, but
they are expected to stay confined to the west, leaving central NC
dry and warm as winds keep a westerly component for much of the day
before backing to southwesterly by evening. Expect the most cloud
cover to be in the northwest with sunnier skies to the east. Highs
will rise into the upper 80s to low 90s with highest temps in the
southwest Piedmont and Sandhills. Lows on Friday night in the low to
mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1250 PM Thursday...

No big changes for the weekend forecast as the Bermuda high will
dominate the weather pattern bringing southwesterly flow to central
NC and with it, an increase in temperature. While moisture will
increase somewhat, the bulk of the wetter airmass will remain
confined across south Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Expect
plenty of sunshine but be aware of a chance of an isolated or
scattered shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. Highs
in the low 90s each day with overnight lows very mild in the upper
60s. Despite highs in the 90s, afternoon dewpoints will top out in
the low to mid 60s. Therefore these won't be overly oppressive days
as far as humidity is concerned, but considering we are likely to
see the warmest temps of the year so far, it will certainly feel
more hot and humid then we are used to.

The real forecast changes come early next week as the frontal system
that was supposed to be dropping south into the area, will be held
up north of the area and both models now indicating a possibility
that this feature will never make it into NC, or maybe just into the
very northern reaches of the forecast area. At the same time,
moisture from the south is not scheduled to arrive until midweek.
This significantly dries out the forecast for Monday and Tuesday.
Again, there remains the possibility for afternoon convection across
the north these days but southern portions of the forecast area
should remain dry. No real change to temperatures from the weekend,
especially on Monday with perhaps some lowering of temps for Tuesday
as clouds encroach from the north.

By Wednesday, a much wetter pattern will emerge as a low pressure
system over the Gulf of Mexico will move northward, bringing a large
amount of moisture with it. Therefore expect rain chances to
increase significantly for Wednesday and beyond as this feature is
expected to continue to keep conditions wet through the end of next
week and possibly beyond as a reinforcing low emerges out of the
Gulf of Mexico late next week. Cooler temps with significant cloud
cover, lower 80s will be the likely highs with continued upper 60s
at night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

A weak shortwave and attendant surface front/trough will move NW to
SE across the area this afternoon and evening. A broken line of
showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. A brief
period of sub-VFR conditions is possible with the stronger
storms. Storms are expected to exit eastern areas aoa 03z,
with skies clearing out overnight. Due to the clear skies and
light winds, patchy fog could develop in areas that
receive heavy rainfall. Any fog that develops, will quickly
dissipate Friday after sunrise Friday with VFR conditions
expected on Friday. The exception will be across the far NW Piedmont
where an upper level disturbance crossing the mtns could produce
an isolated/scattered showers/tstms.

Aside from early morning fog each day, VFR parameters are expected
through Monday. Rain chances are expected to increase late Tuesday
and into Wednesday as an upper level low over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico moves north into the SE US states.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KCP
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...Ellis
LONG TERM...Ellis
AVIATION...CBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
432 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018

NCZ007>011-022>028-038>043-073>077-083-084-112045-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-
Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-
432 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 80 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ078-085-086-088-089-112045-
Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
432 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021-112045-
Forsyth-
432 PM EDT Thu May 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

An isolated strong to severe storm is possible through this evening.
Damaging thunderstorm wind gust and hail are the main severe threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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