Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Raleigh, NC

577 
WWUS52 KRAH 221952
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
352 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NCC069-222000-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-180522T2030Z/
Franklin NC-
352 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved east of 
the county. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3648 7776 3649 7771 3648 7764 3645 7763
      3642 7759 3642 7756 3639 7754 3637 7755
      3634 7759 3630 7755 3631 7749 3629 7748
      3620 7801 3621 7805 3621 7811 3624 7813
      3626 7816 3633 7816 3651 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 250DEG 26KT 3629 7804 

$$

NCC083-185-222030-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-180522T2030Z/
Warren NC-Halifax NC-
352 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES...

At 350 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast
of Warrenton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Halifax, Littleton, Weldon, Arcola, Medoc Mountain
State Park, South Weldon, Airlie, Roanoke Rapids Lake and Rosemary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on or near Lake Gaston, get away from the water and move indoors 
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 15 miles 
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close 
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now!  Do not 
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to 
flash flooding, especially in low lying or urbanized areas. Do not 
drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7776 3649 7771 3648 7764 3645 7763
      3642 7759 3642 7756 3639 7754 3637 7755
      3634 7759 3630 7755 3631 7749 3629 7748
      3620 7801 3621 7805 3621 7811 3624 7813
      3626 7816 3633 7816 3651 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 250DEG 26KT 3629 7804 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MORROW

860 
WWUS52 KRAH 222014
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NCC185-222023-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-180522T2030Z/
Warren NC-
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3648 7776 3649 7772 3648 7768 3648 7764
      3645 7763 3642 7759 3642 7756 3639 7754
      3637 7755 3634 7759 3630 7755 3631 7749
      3629 7748 3620 7801 3630 7794 3637 7791
      3648 7791 3651 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 244DEG 28KT 3637 7784 

$$

NCC083-222030-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-180522T2030Z/
Halifax NC-
414 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTY...

At 413 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Littleton, or
11 miles southwest of Roanoke Rapids, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Halifax, Littleton, Weldon, Medoc Mountain State
Park, South Weldon, Airlie, Roanoke Rapids Lake, Rosemary and Lake
Gaston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of 
a building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to 
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 7776 3649 7772 3648 7768 3648 7764
      3645 7763 3642 7759 3642 7756 3639 7754
      3637 7755 3634 7759 3630 7755 3631 7749
      3629 7748 3620 7801 3630 7794 3637 7791
      3648 7791 3651 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 244DEG 28KT 3637 7784 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MORROW

078 
WWUS52 KRAH 222029
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
429 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NCC083-222039-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-180522T2030Z/
Halifax NC-
429 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Raleigh.

LAT...LON 3648 7776 3649 7772 3648 7768 3648 7764
      3645 7763 3642 7759 3642 7756 3639 7754
      3637 7755 3634 7759 3630 7755 3631 7749
      3629 7748 3620 7801 3630 7794 3637 7791
      3648 7791 3651 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 244DEG 28KT 3642 7771 

$$

MORROW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
235 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A lee trough will linger over the srn middle Atlantic states ahead
of a cold front that will settle southeastward into the area late
Wednesday and early Wednesday night. Following high pressure will
ridge south across the region on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1115 AM Tuesday...

WV imagery this morning depicts a mid-upr level shear axis
stretching from the ern GOM nnewd into s-cntl VA, with a couple of
embedded perturbations over w-cntl NC and s-cntl GA, respectively.
This shear axis and embedded perturbations will drift ewd to the sern
U.S. coast by this evening. Another shear/trough axis evident from
Lake Ontario swwd across the mid MS Valley and cntl Plains, and
immediately preceding band of (now) weak convection over the nrn
middle Atlantic and lwr OH Valley, will likewise move ewd to the lee
of cntl Appalachians by the same time.

At the surface, a cold front was analyzed from a 1014 mb low over
Lake Huron swwd across nrn IN and cntl IL/MO. This boundary will
move east to the srn New England coast swwd into MD and ern WV by
Wed morning. An Appalachian-lee trough will meanwhile remain quasi-
stationary over w-cntl NC.

The airmass is expected to become moderately unstable across cntl NC
today, as morning stratus lifts and erodes and allows sfc
temperatures to warm into the middle 80s on average through the
afternoon. The aforementioned perturbation drifting ewd from w-cntl
NC will result in the development of scattered, generally
disorganized/pulse-type showers and storms across cntl NC during
the next couple of hours. In fact, the latest satellite and radar
trends indicate convection initiation is already underway over ern
Wake, cntl Harnett, and nrn Hoke Counties, and also from srn
Alamance, cntl Randolph and nrn Stanly/Montgomery Counties. Strong
to isolated damaging wind gusts from precipitation loading, fueled
by an axis of 1.6-1.7 PW values over cntl NC, will pose the primary
threat from these storms, with generally sub-severe hail owing to
weak mid level lapse rates, pulse updrafts (short residence times),
and rising freezing levels into the 12-13 thousand ft range.

The aforementioned upstream convection and associated convectively-
enhanced shear axis will drift east into cntl NC, likely in a
weakening state owing to nocturnal stabilization, late this evening-
early tonight. As such, some showers and storms may linger primarily
over the nrn and nwrn Piedmont through the first half of the night,
before dissipating. Lows generally 65-70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Wednesday night/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

Expect scattered showers/storms across the W and N CWA Wed morning
in tandem with the sharpening surface lee trough and the DPVA
preceding the shortwave trough moving through the Northeast and
interior Mid Atlantic region. This initial shear axis will continue
moving ESE with strengthening and veering mid level flow, while the
surface cold front moves into the NE CWA late in the afternoon. In
addition to the strengthening deep layer shear from the WNW to 30-35
kts, models are indicating good destabilization during the mid to
late afternoon, primarily across the north half. Probably the
biggest question mark however is how quickly the morning convection
pushes E and S. If this activity departs by mid afternoon, there
could be enough recovery in the afternoon with residual low level
moisture and minor mid level drying/cooling, such that surface CAPE
values reach into moderate to strong instability categories. The NAM
Nest wind profile shows veering and strengthening with height
through 800 mb, with subtle backing 800-600 mb, and given the
expected CAPE, large hail along with damaging winds are possible,
mainly across the N Piedmont and N/C Coastal Plain. Again, though,
this is dependent upon there being sufficient recovery in the
afternoon. Will include a mention of possible severe storms across
the N and NE CWA Wed afternoon/early evening. The storms should
slowly decrease in intensity as they slide SE Wed night, with the
cold front dropping SSE through much of NC overnight. Expect highs
Wed in the mid 80s. Lows once again in the mid 60s to around 70,
with some cooler dewpoints starting to work into N NC late. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Tuesday...

Progressive high pressure over the Great Lakes will make a stab at
drying us out, pushing a front south of the area early on Thursday.
With the front along or south of the area, will have only small
chance PoPs along the southern tier counties Thursday into Thursday
night. Highs will be only mildly influenced by the front due to
strong insolation and should reach mostly mid 80s.

The high moves off the New England coast, with return flow beginning
to spread into the west Friday into Saturday. As such, chance
category PoPs in the west Friday taper off eastward, with all areas
in the low chance category on Saturday as we sit beneath an upper
ridge conducive to airmass thunderstorms in the resulting unstable,
but weakly forced environment. Highs both days will mostly reach mid
80s after mild morning lows in the mid and upper 60s.

The moisture transport from the south returns once again for the
late weekend aided by the Bermuda high and a developing low pressure
system in the Gulf of Mexico. The moisture return will increase
precip coverage Sunday and into early next week, and while there is
a lot of uncertainty as to the timing of forcing mechanisms driving
heavier convection, it will be diurnally influenced, and will
maintain high chance to likely PoPs Sunday through Tuesday. Highs
will show little variation from previous days, mostly mid 80s, with
morning mins in the soupier airmass closer to 70 each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday...

Scattered showers and storms, with associated brief sub-VFR
conditions and gusty winds, will focus in the RDU and RWI vicinity
this afternoon, in association with an upper level disturbance now
crossing that region. Another relative maximum in shower and storm
coverage will be possible at INT and GSO this evening, related to
the approach of a mid level trough and band of upstream convection
now over the cntl Appalachians. Storm coverage is otherwise expected
to remain isolated and/or of limited predictability (for inclusion
in the TAFs). Similar to Tue morning, IFR-MVFR ceilings will be
possible in the several hours centered around 12Z.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms will focus along a lee trough
Wed afternoon, then become more numerous with the arrival of a cold
front from the northwest late Wed and early Wed night. Sub-VFR
conditions and strong wind gusts will result where storms occur.
Otherwise, another round of sub-VFR ceilings will probably result
late Wed night-early Thu, owing to low level moisture convergence
along and ahead of the aforementioned frontal zone. After relatively
dry/VFR conditions Thu-Sat, moisture will increase by Sun-Mon, with
resultant increasing probabilities of convection and morning stratus
and/or fog during that time.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...MWS
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...mlm
AVIATION...MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
251 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-078-231000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Wayne-
251 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A few strong storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening
along and north of the Highway 70 corridor. Hail the size of quarters
and wind gusts over 60 mph are possible with storms in this area,
mainly in the late afternoon through early evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Wednesday.

NCZ073>077-083>086-088-089-231000-
Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
251 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1230 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 S MACON               36.38N 78.08W
05/21/2018                   WARREN             NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            WARRENTON/EMBRO RD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MLM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
242 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NCZ008-009-221915-
Vance NC-Granville NC-
242 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT VANCE AND
CENTRAL GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS
OF KERR LAKE...

At 241 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms over Oxford, moving east at 25 mph.

Locations impacted include...
Henderson, Oxford, Stovall, Middleburg, Gillburg, Steele Creek Marina
& Campground, Kerr Lake, South Henderson, Dabney and Tungsten.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Boaters on the open water and those camping outdoors are especially
vulnerable to the dangers of lightning. Seek harbor immediately and
find safe shelter in a nearby building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3632 7828 3630 7828 3626 7831 3621 7867
      3631 7872 3654 7853 3654 7832
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 248DEG 20KT 3629 7863

MORROW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
244 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NCZ026-221915-
Franklin NC-
244 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 244 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wake Forest, or 12 miles southwest of Louisburg, moving northeast at
20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Franklinton and Youngsville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 7826 3596 7841 3598 7843 3602 7853
      3605 7851 3616 7839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 231DEG 19KT 3600 7848

MORROW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
316 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

NCZ009>011-222015-
Vance NC-Warren NC-Halifax NC-
316 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN VANCE...WARREN AND
NORTHWESTERN HALIFAX COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT. THIS INCLUDES PARTS
OF LAKE GASTON...

At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Norlina, or near Warrenton, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pockets of heavy rainfall will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roanoke Rapids, Warrenton, Norlina, Littleton, Weldon, Middleburg,
Macon, Afton, Wise and Lake Gaston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near Lake Gaston, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3651 7790 3650 7782 3648 7776 3649 7773
      3648 7764 3645 7763 3642 7759 3642 7756
      3640 7754 3638 7755 3626 7825 3627 7830
      3647 7836 3654 7832 3654 7790
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 257DEG 31KT 3640 7824

MORROW