Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Raleigh, NC

924 
WWUS52 KRAH 112138
SVSRAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
538 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

NCC085-105-112147-
/O.CAN.KRAH.SV.W.0213.000000T0000Z-180911T2200Z/
Harnett NC-Lee NC-
538 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HARNETT AND
SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Raleigh.

LAT...LON 3538 7919 3554 7899 3552 7897 3556 7894
      3535 7877 3523 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 135DEG 7KT 3539 7895 

$$

WSS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
335 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain quasi-stationary over the northwestern Piedmont
and Foothills of NC through early Wednesday, then dissipate.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Florence will move over the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the Bahamas through Wednesday,
and approach the coast of the Carolinas on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

A cold nearly stationary front lingers across the foothills, just to
the NW of the area and will become a focus for convection over
central NC later this afternoon and through the evening. Convection
has also developed along the sea breeze, from approximately
Elizabethtown to Virginia Beach, and is expected to drift
northwestward through the evening. As a result, expect a descent
chance for showers and thunderstorms across central NC through this
evening, with coverage and intensity decreasing after sunset. Expect
fog to develop once again tonight mainly along and on the cool side
of the boundary, with low stratus developing elsewhere, primarily in
locations where rainfall occurs. With the boundary lingering across
the Triad, highs will vary greatly from low 80s there to around 90
degrees in the far southeast. Expect overnight lows similar to last
night, upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT /...
As of 335 PM Tuesday...

The upper level ridge will continue to extend into central NC from
the east while the surface trough/front weakens in response to the
large-scale flow around Hurricane Florence creeps into the area.
Florence will still be over the Atlantic through Wednesday, while
the easterly and northeasterly winds around the circulation will
gradually increase as it approaches. Any convection that develops
ahead of the system will be along the remnants of the trough and any
potential outer rainband convection. Regardless, expect convection
to me moving in a south-southeasterly direction. Highs will be
similar to today, slightly warmer in the NW with the breakdown of
the front, generally mid 80s to low 90s. ~KCP

...No changes or expansion anticipated to current watches in
effect...

Wednesday night through Thursday night, attention shifts towards
Florence this period as it makes an approach toward the central-
southern coast of NC. Based on current timing per NHC, initial bands
may begin to affect our far eastern counties Thursday morning into
Thursday afternoon. Noted that 850mb winds increase from 15-20kts
early Thu to 40-50kts Thu afternoon. Thus, expect to see an
increasing threat for isolated tornadoes within the bands from late
morning into the evening hours. This isolated tornado threat appears
highest in an arc from Tarboro-Smithfield-Lillington-Raeford.

Based on a slightly slower timing, have adjusted PoPs west-to-east,
highlighting the highest PoPs in vicinity of the I-95 corridor
Thursday afternoon, and along and east of highway 1 Thursday night.
For the western and southern Piedmont, capped PoPs at chance for now
and this may be a little overdone as forcing appears weak or non-
existent, relying mostly on heating.

The forecast Friday through Saturday night will depend on the
movement of Florence. Unfortunately, model guidance has failed to
gain any consensus. Some models are advertising a scenario in which
Florence stalls in vicinity of the NC coast for 24-36 hours before
drifting westward. Thus, forecast confidence lower than normal as
far as timing, and placement of the axis of heavy/torrential
rainfall. That said, the potential still appears high on the
occurrence of strong, damaging winds, torrential/flooding rains over
a large portion of central NC, with a tornado risk Friday across the
eastern counties. Residents will need to remain vigilant weatherwise
through this period has changes on the forecast are likely.
The threat for damaging winds and heavy/torrential rainfall still
appears highest over the Coastal Plain and the Sandhills through
Friday, with possible expansion westward Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 335 PM Tuesday...

Sunday through Tuesday, low confidence in the forecast this period
as models display great variability as to where the remnants of
Florence will reside. Still, residual moisture leftover from
Florence and an expected steady sely fetch will maintain a
moderately moist air mass over the region. Heating of this air mass
along with any sfc boundaries to focus convergence will aid in the
development of scattered-numerous showers and storms each day. With
anticipation of relatively high precipitable water values, locally
heavy/excessive rainfall potential still appears high over central
NC. This will likely exacerbate any ongoing flooding issues in the
wake of Florence.

Will advertise temperatures at least a category above normal through
the period, with highs generally mid-upper 80s, and overnight
temperatures upper 60s to the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 138 PM Tuesday...

24 hour TAF period: A front remains draped over NW portions of the
area, in the vicinity of KINT. As the front wavers northwestward
throughout the day, expect MVFR cigs to lift into the 2-3 kft range,
before scattering out later this aft/eve. KGSO will similarly bounce
between sct-bkn around 2kft for the next couple hours. Farther south
and east of the boundary, skies have scattered out and thunderstorms
have developed along the sea breeze, east and SE of KRWI and KFAY.
Additional showers and thunderstorm are expected along the front
later this aft/eve while the storms along the sea breeze may drift
northwestward. There is a chance storms could impact all terminals,
though confidence of exactly when and where is low. The usual
reduced visbys and gusty winds are expected with the storms.
Otherwise, sub-vfr cigs and visbys will be possible again late
tonight/Wednesday morning, similar to last night. -KC

Looking ahead: The front is forecast to continue to waver over w-
cntl NC, while also gradually weakening, and focus mainly scattered,
diurnal convection each day, with late night-early morning sub-VFR
conditions in low stratus and fog particularly on the cool side of
the front. The approach of Tropical Cyclone Florence, based on the
latest official NHC forecast, will likely result in extremely
hazardous aviation conditions by late Thu-Fri, possibly continuing
through the weekend and into early next week. -MWS

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC/WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...KC/MWS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-120900-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Hurricane Florence is forecast to be a very powerful, major
hurricane on its approach to the coast of the Southeast U.S. late
Wednesday through early Friday. The associated risk of life-
threatening impacts well inland into central North Carolina,
including damaging wind, tornadoes, and prolonged, extremely heavy
rainfall, is increasing.

Residents of central North Carolina are strongly encouraged to
take time now to put together emergency kits and an emergency plan
of how best to protect family and pets. Continue to closely monitor
the progress and latest forecasts of Hurricane Florence.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1139 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BISCOE                  35.37N 79.78W
09/10/2018                   MONTGOMERY         NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON PINE STREET IN BISCOE. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0504 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S TROY                35.31N 79.88W
09/10/2018                   MONTGOMERY         NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON 1814 HICKS RD. TIME ESTIMATED
            FROM RADAR.

0419 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 ESE ANSONVILLE        35.07N 80.00W
09/10/2018                   ANSON              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN ON GRASSY ISLAND RD. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE ANSONVILLE         35.06N 80.04W
09/10/2018                   ANSON              NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON POWER-LINE NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF PLEASANT GROVE CHURCH ROAD
            AND DENNIS ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

NCZ042-078-089-112000-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Wayne NC-
315 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN
SAMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 314 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Mount Olive, moving north at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Mount Olive, Princeton, Mar-Mac and Grantham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, and other light outdoor objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 7844 3550 7802 3518 7806 3518 7811
      3519 7816 3518 7817 3518 7829
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 179DEG 12KT 3526 7819

WSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
359 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

NCZ042-077-078-112100-
Johnston NC-Harnett NC-Wayne NC-
359 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
NORTHWESTERN WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN HARNETT AND JOHNSTON COUNTIES UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

At 358 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms near Princeville, moving northwest at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Smithfield, Clayton, Dunn, Benson, Micro, Selma, Erwin, Coats, Four
Oaks and Pine Level.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 7829 3529 7831 3526 7841 3526 7848
      3532 7854 3530 7858 3527 7858 3525 7861
      3544 7884 3575 7822 3573 7821 3573 7819
      3571 7816 3561 7813 3559 7807 3560 7805
      3540 7803
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 155DEG 12KT 3545 7828

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
442 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

NCZ026-027-112145-
Nash NC-Franklin NC-
442 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NASH AND
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 442 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms over Nashville, moving northwest at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rocky Mount, Nashville, Dortches, Bailey, Bunn, Red Oak, Sharpsburg,
Spring Hope, Middlesex and Whitakers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3625 7813 3621 7811 3621 7802 3618 7798
      3619 7797 3618 7795 3619 7792 3617 7792
      3614 7789 3614 7778 3616 7775 3613 7772
      3615 7770 3584 7785 3584 7790 3573 7819
      3576 7824 3587 7828 3593 7836 3625 7818
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 121DEG 13KT 3597 7795

Ellis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
502 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

NCZ075>077-084>086-112145-
Scotland NC-Richmond NC-Lee NC-Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Moore NC-
502 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MOORE...
NORTHERN SCOTLAND...SOUTHWESTERN HARNETT...EASTERN RICHMOND...LEE AND
NORTHERN HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 501 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles west of Lillington
to 8 miles south of Hoffman. Movement was northwest at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Southern Pines, Rockingham, Lillington, Carthage, Pinehurst,
Hamlet, Aberdeen, Hoffman and Whispering Pines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, and other light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 7989 3517 7967 3516 7962 3519 7965
      3558 7917 3539 7878 3521 7902 3519 7909
      3514 7911 3482 7953
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 121DEG 15KT 3539 7892 3491 7954

WSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
508 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

NCZ025-040-041-112200-
Chatham NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-
508 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WAKE...EAST CENTRAL
CHATHAM AND SOUTH CENTRAL DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

At 507 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Garner, or 7 miles south of Raleigh, moving northwest at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Garner, Rdu International, Apex, Holly
Springs, Morrisville, Crosswinds Boating Center and Crosswinds
Campground.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, and other light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3574 7851 3558 7863 3573 7903 3596 7886
TIME...MOT...LOC 2107Z 121DEG 15KT 3571 7865

WSS