Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface boundary will drift south overnight and stall across
northern South Carolina on Tuesday. The front will linger across
the Carolinas into Wednesday before beginning to dissipate as
another cold front approaches from the northwest on Thursday.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 800 PM Monday...

Per radar and satellite, MCV tracking SE across southern Guilford
and Randolph Counties as of 800 PM. The line of severe thunderstorms
associated with this feature has a history of wind damage across
western and into central NC. As this feature continues to track SE,
the most unstable air is located on the south and west side of the
feature. This would place areas west and south of Raleigh as the
favored areas for additional severe weather through midnight.
Outflows coming NW from the Sandhills and SE Coastal Plain storms
should collide with the outflows from the NW over our Southern
Piedmont, with the emphasis on Anson, Richmond, Scotland,
Montgomery, Moore, Lee, then possibly Harnett, Hoke, and Cumberland
for highest probability of severe weather.

Large trailing stratiform rain area noted just behind the MCV and
line of severe storms over the Northern Foothills and Northwest
Piedmont making wet evening there.

Categorical POP west ranging to chance in the NE. POP decreasing
overnight. Low stratus expected with areas of fog. Lows 65-72.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 PM Monday...

Difficult forecast with the dependent evolution of multiple
features likely to drive the sensible weather on Tuesday and
Tuesday night.

The upper air pattern will feature a ridge aloft centered over the
Gulf of Mexico with a weak northwest flow aloft. Multiple
convectively enhanced perturbations in the flow aloft will
transition across and toward central NC during the period. In
addition, a surface boundary noting a notable drop in dew points
will be positioned across northern SC at the start of the
period.

It appears the front should be established south of the RAH CWA on
Tuesday morning although its exact location will be dependent
on how the convection tonight evolves and the impact of a
convectively induced cold pool. NWP guidance is stubborn with
a northward retreat of the boundary during the day. The result
should be a cooler and more stable air mass across central NC
with a rather moist profile. With the addition of a couple of
disturbances in the flow aloft, expect some scattered showers in
the morning, mainly across the north that slide east and
northeast across the western and northern Piedmont northeast
toward the northern Coastal Plain. A midday lull appears likely
followed by an increase in showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening. The air mass on Tuesday afternoon is likely
to be weakly unstable, potentially moderately, near the SC border.
Still, several CAMs signal that convection in the central Plains
will generate an MCV that will rapidly move east, and support a band
of showers and storms that sweeps east across central NC between
late afternoon and mid evening. Rain chances decrease significantly
overnight.

With clouds and a cooler airmass, temperatures on Tuesday will
range in the 70s for most of the day with highs in the 79 to 86
range. Lows on Tuesday night will range in the upper 60s to lower
70s. -Blaes
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 155 PM Monday...

The upper pattern will be shifting in the mid week as a final short
wave moves east across the Great Lakes and its associated weakening
surface front moves slowly southeast and across the area Wednesday
into Wednesday night. A residual CAD airmass will be in place, with
cloudiness hindering the morning temperature rise, but erosion will
be quick as southwest flow deepens and strengthens ahead of the
front. Expect highs to reach 85 northwest to around 90 across the
south with 30-40 PoPs at this point, which could be on the low side.
The upper trof axis will be slow to move off the coast Thursday and
will maintain chance PoPs tied to the diurnal cycle in the coastal
Plain. Highs will be on the uptick with increased sun and warm air
advection...mostly lower 90s.

Late week through early next week will be dominated by strong high
pressure aloft building over the Mid Atlantic region, with weak
surface ridging down the coast. This will provide us with dry and
hot weather through the period, but the stacked ridging will not be
in a favored position to produce excessively hot temperatures as low
level flow will be predominantly northeasterly. The subsident
atmosphere will be unfavorable for convection, but the flow will
enhance inland progression of the sea breeze each day, so widely
scattered late day storms will be possible in the Coastal
Plain/Sandhills. Highs Friday through Monday will top out in the mid
90s after morning mins in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 800 PM Monday...

Storms this evening will affect areas south and west of KRWI with
gusty winds, heavy rain, and low CIGS. Low stratus is expected to
bring LIFR CIGS later tonight and Tuesday morning, possibly lifting
to MVFR CIGS Tuesday afternoon. Still a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms overnight and Tuesday.

Outlook after 00z/WEDNESDAY... Generally VFR conditions expected.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...BLAES
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...Badgett

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

NCZ038-039-073>077-083>086-088-089-260930-
Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Anson-Richmond-
Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. Hot and
humid conditions are anticipated for the later half of the week into
the weekend. Heat indices 100 to 105 degrees are expected during this
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through 10 PM EDT.

NCZ007>011-026>028-260930-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. Hot and
humid conditions are anticipated for the later half of the week into
the weekend. Heat indices around 100 degrees are expected during
this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ021>025-040>043-078-260930-
Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-
Wayne-
344 PM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are likely through early this evening.
The main severe weather hazard will be damaging straight line winds.
The threat for severe weather appears greatest between 4 PM and
10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. Hot and
humid conditions are anticipated for the later half of the week into
the weekend. Heat indices between 100 and 105 degrees are expected
during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through 10 PM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Raleigh NC
721 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

NCZ084-085-252345-
Scotland-Richmond-
721 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF Scotland and
southeastern Richmond Counties Until 745 PM EDT...

At 721 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR Laurinburg...MOVING east AT 25 MPH.

Hail up to the size of dimes AND Wind gusts up to 40 mph WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Laurinburg...Hamlet...Dobbins Heights...Gibson...East Laurinburg and
Laurel Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3480 7969 3481 7970 3493 7970
      3493 7940 3477 7936 3463 7946
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 261DEG 22KT 3485 7953

NP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
733 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEXINGTON               35.81N 80.26W
06/25/2018                   DAVIDSON           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            OFFICIALS HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF
            TREES BLOWN DOWN INTO RESIDENCES ACROSS THE
            COUNTY.

&&

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