Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Raleigh, NC

791 
WGUS72 KRAH 212104
FFSRAH

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
504 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

NCC037-063-183-212113-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180521T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wake NC-Chatham NC-Durham NC-
504 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL WAKE...NORTHEASTERN
CHATHAM AND SOUTH CENTRAL DURHAM COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3592 7877 3577 7886 3578 7901 3580 7900
      3593 7894

$$

77

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
315 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist and slightly unstable air mass will remain entrenched across
central NC through the middle of the week. A cold front will move
through the area on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 PM Monday...

Latest sfc analysis shows a weak backdoor front stretching across
the northern portion of the state, just south of the VA border.
Radar shows scattered showers and tstms developing invof of this
boundary.  The latest HRRR shows this area of shower/tstm activity
expanding as the afternoon progresses. While not every area will see
rain, the best chance for rain will be north of the line from
Albemarle to Clinton, this afternoon through the evening.

The latest mesoanalysis shows that the best instability is located
north and east of Raleigh.  While there is also an area of elevated
DCAPE north and east of Raleigh, deep layer shear is rather modest.
This suggests that the main concern will be wet downbursts for any
cells with elevated cores.  Also modest mid-level winds in this
mornings soundings suggest that slow-moving storms could produce
locally higher rainfall amounts.

Look for the storms and subsequent rain this evening to gradually
diminish as the night goes on.  Despite mostly cloudy conditions
tonight, given the light winds and high dwpts, there could be a few
patches of fog late tonight, esp areas that see the rain this
evening.  Low in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Tuesday night/...
As of 315 PM Monday...

The boundary that's currently over our area is expected to lift back
to the north by 12Z Tuesday.  However, there is some indication in
models that a weak mid-level short wave moving up from the south
could prolong the risk for showers across our north/northeast zones
between daybreak and noon Tuesday. However, once this feature
passes, a pocket of dryer air in its wake should give us a brief
break in rain chances during the afternoon, esp across across the
eastern half of our CWA.

By Tuesday evening and night, we'll turn our attention to a cold
front approaching from the northwest (the system currently across
the northern/central Plains).  Models suggest that pre-frontal
shower and thunderstorm activity will begin approaching our western
zones as early as Tuesday evening, with best chances for rain across
our western and central zones overnight into Wednesday morning.

With little change in the airmass, expect highs Tuesday again in the
low-mid 80s and lows Tuesday night in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 235 PM Monday...

The subtropical ridge off the Southeast coast will keep central
North Carolina in a tropical airmass on Wednesday.  A frontal zone
dropping southward from the Mid Atlantic will enter northern parts
of the region Wednesday night and become stationary close to the
NC/SC border on Thursday.  The tropical airmass will be suppressed to
the south of the boundary Thursday and Friday before returning
northward into central North Carolina over the holiday weekend. In
addition, a tropical low is forecast to move northward across Cuba
and the Gulf of Mexico/Florida over the holiday weekend and early
next week.

Diurnal heating combined with the frontal boundary will generate
scattered convection Wednesday afternoon and evening. Scattered
convection Thursday and Friday should be limited to locations near
the NC/SC border and western Piedmont. Convection will overspread
the entire region over the 3-day holiday weekend with the return of
a tropical airmass and close proximity of the tropical low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 PM Monday...

Latest satellite and obs shows VFR conditions with cigs mostly abv
15k AGL.  The exception is in and near scattered shower/tstm
activity, where flight conditions will briefly lower to low-MVFR or
IFR cigs.  These conditions will continue through the afternoon,
although rain and low-MVFR cigs may become a bit more widespread
along and north of a line from KINT-KGSB after 22/01Z.  After 22/05z
through about 22/11z , forecast soundings suggest patchy IFR
conditions may develop across the eastern Piedmont and Coastal
Plain, including KRWI, KRDU, and KFAY, in low cigs and some fog.
After 22/11Z, look for improving conditions as any low cigs begin to
lift with heating.

Looking beyond 18z Tue...and unsettled and moist week will provide
occasional opportunities for showers and tstms, and early morning
low cigs, through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Franklin
AVIATION...np

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
356 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

NCZ083>086-088-222000-
Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-
356 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-089-222000-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Sampson-
356 PM EDT Mon May 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours are
possible this afternoon and evening. If the showers and storms train
across the same location, 1 to 2 inches of rain could occur in less
than a couple of hours, leading to localized flooding of streets and
swollen creeks. Small hail and brief strong wind gusts are also
possible with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated severe storms are possible on Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
351 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

NCZ007-212015-
Person NC-
351 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN PERSON COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM EDT...

At 351 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Roxboro, moving northwest at 5 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roxboro and Bushy Fork.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

&&

LAT...LON 3642 7897 3624 7891 3624 7915 3639 7915
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 145DEG 6KT 3630 7904

MORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
401 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0309 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W ARCADIA             35.95N 80.37W
05/21/2018                   DAVIDSON           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON HAMPTON RD IN ARCADIA.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
408 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             3 SSE BUSHY FORK        36.27N 79.06W
05/21/2018  E0.75 INCH       PERSON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY-SIZED HAIL ON UNION GROVE CHURCH RD
            AND CHARLIE LONG RD IN HURDLE MILLS.

&&

JFD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
414 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

NCZ025-041-212100-
Durham NC-Wake NC-
414 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...A STRONG NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL
WAKE AND SOUTHEASTERN DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 413 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rdu International, or 7 miles south of Durham, moving northeast at 5
mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Rdu International, Morrisville, Research
Triangle, Parkwood, William B Umstead State Park, Bethesda and
Carpenter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Very heavy rain can be expected due to the slow movement of this
storm. Prolonged heavy rain will result in ponding of water on
roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and minor flooding of
creeks and streams. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra
caution to avoid hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 7868 3579 7889 3582 7892 3585 7891
      3587 7891 3586 7896 3587 7897 3599 7882
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 229DEG 6KT 3588 7888

MORROW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
417 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

NCZ022-039-212100-
Guilford NC-Randolph NC-
417 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RANDOLPH AND SOUTHEASTERN GUILFORD COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 416 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of showers and
strong thunderstorms near Randleman, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Pleasant Garden, Randleman Regional Reservior Marina,
Climax and Forest Oaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other light outdoor
objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Very heavy rain can be expected due to the slow movement of this
storm. Prolonged heavy rain will result in ponding of water on
roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and minor flooding of
creeks and streams. Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra
caution to avoid hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 7967 3588 7990 3603 7979 3596 7955
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 203DEG 7KT 3588 7971

MORROW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
418 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             1 WNW RESEARCH TRIANGLE 35.88N 78.86W
05/21/2018  E0.75 INCH       DURHAM             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY-SIZED HAIL AT DAVIS DR AND HOPSON RD
            IN MORRISVILLE.

&&

JFD