Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Raleigh, NC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
250 PM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The center of Tropical Depression Florence will move northeast
across Pennsylvania this afternoon and off the Northeast coast by
Tuesday.  A trailing surface front will extend down through the
Appalachians through this evening, before pushing eastward across
the Carolinas tonight through Tuesday night. Drier air and warm
weather will follow for Wednesday into Friday as high pressure
builds over the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

As the center of Florence tracks through far southern OH into PA
this afternoon, a band of DPVA extending to its ESE will track
northward, bringing an end to the widespread heavy tropical rainfall
over central NC. A significant dry slot will punch in from the WSW
and shunt the highest PW to the E, as mid level winds veer around to
SSW. But low level flow will continue out of the SSE with steady
moisture transport, so will maintain high chance pops, especially N,
through the afternoon. Models depict high MUCAPE peaking at 2000-
3000 J/kg this afternoon (although this may be muted by subtle late-
day warming 700-600 mb), along with 25-30 kts of deep layer shear,
and a few strong to severe storms are not out of the question today,
with the greatest risk over the west half of the CWA, where the HREF
depicts a resurgence of decent updraft helicity maxima this
afternoon. Scattered convection is expected to spread east into the
E CWA this evening/tonight, and will retain chance pops in the east
through the night ahead of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Monday...

As the remnant Florence low heads into the Northeast, trailing
positively tilted mid level and surface troughs will cross central
NC. Scattered storms should develop once again, this time restricted
to eastern sections within marginal to moderate instability. Western
sections will become much more stable as winds aloft swing around to
westerly, and overall deep layer shear will lessen, which will limit
storm intensity in the afternoon. Much drier air will advect in Tue
evening behind the trough, leading to clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 AM Monday...

Much drier weather is expected Wednesday through Saturday. The next
chance of afternoon thunderstorms has been delayed until Sunday
(mainly in the NW-N zones). So, a much needed period to dry and
clean up. High pressure will be over the region Wednesday into
Friday and Saturday, then shift offshore Saturday night. Mostly
clear/mostly sunny weather is expected. By Sunday, a cold front is
expected to approach from the north bringing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Lows in the 60s will be
common through Saturday, with 65-70 Sunday. Highs generally in the
80s (82-88).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Monday...

24 Hour TAF period: Ceilings are trending toward VFR. Scattered
storms will develop and move east across the area later this
afternoon into early evening. Later tonight, VFR conditions will
extend through daybreak Tue morning over FAY, but elsewhere, IFR
cigs are expected to develop, with MVFR vsbys.

Looking beyond 18z Tue: A trough will sweep through the area during
the day, bringing a return to VFR conditions, with only a few storms
expected at RDU/RWI/FAY in the afternoon. VFR conditions will
dominate Wednesday through Sunday with high pressure over the
Southeast.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Hartfield/Franklin
SHORT TERM...Hartfield/Franklin
LONG TERM...Badgett
AVIATION...Hartfield/Franklin

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

NCZ021-022-038-042-043-073>078-083>086-088-089-181030-
Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-
Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and storms producing isolated tornadoes and heavy rainfall
remain possible through mid morning.

Additional scattered storms are expected this afternoon. A few of
these storms could become strong, with wind gusts over 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ007>011-023>028-039>041-181030-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham-
Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered storms are expected this afternoon. A few of these storms
could become strong, with wind gusts over 40 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
524 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCZ024-025-040-172215-
Chatham NC-Durham NC-Orange NC-
524 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...
NORTHEASTERN CHATHAM AND SOUTHWESTERN DURHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
EDT...

At 523 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pittsboro, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Durham, Chapel Hill, Pittsboro, Carrboro, Bynum, Parkwood,
Fearrington, Lake Jordan and Research Triangle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3604 7896 3590 7882 3587 7883 3587 7891
      3585 7891 3581 7893 3563 7930 3566 7936
      3576 7940 3585 7927 3584 7924 3585 7924
      3586 7925
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 233DEG 24KT 3574 7924

77

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
525 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W SURL                36.32N 78.94W
09/17/2018                   PERSON             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF TWO TREES DOWN IN THE AREA.

&&

TC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
529 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCZ075-077-084>086-088-172230-
Scotland NC-Richmond NC-Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Moore NC-Cumberland NC-
529 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MOORE...
SCOTLAND...SOUTHWESTERN HARNETT...RICHMOND...NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND
AND HOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 529 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles east of Southern
Pines to 9 miles north of Laurinburg to Cheraw State Park. Movement
was northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Laurinburg, Southern Pines, Rockingham, Raeford, Fort
Bragg, Pinehurst, Hamlet, Aberdeen and Hoffman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
45 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 7991 3490 7985 3492 7985
      3505 7979 3519 7941 3544 7883 3493 7899
      3495 7904 3488 7913 3484 7928 3484 7935
      3482 7936 3474 7960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 241DEG 17KT 3515 7923 3491 7944 3465 7987

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
559 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCZ009-010-172215-
Vance NC-Warren NC-
559 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN VANCE AND
NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Norlina, or 12 miles north of Henderson, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
John H Kerr Reservoir, Steele Creek Marina & Campground,
Bullocksville, Kerr Lake, Tungsten and Lake Gaston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Doppler radar has indicated weak rotation with this storm. If the
storm intensifies and rotation strengthens, a warning may need to be
issued.

&&

LAT...LON 3652 7806 3644 7841 3652 7849 3652 7847
      3654 7845 3654 7844 3655 7829 3654 7808
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 237DEG 19KT 3650 7837

77

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
633 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

NCZ077-084>086-088-172315-
Scotland NC-Richmond NC-Hoke NC-Harnett NC-Cumberland NC-
633 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SCOTLAND...HARNETT...
SOUTHEASTERN RICHMOND...NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND AND HOKE COUNTIES
UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 633 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from near Pope AFB to 8 miles
southeast of Hamlet. Movement was northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Heavy rain and minor flooding and deadly cloud to ground lightning
will also be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fayetteville, Raeford, Lillington, Fort Bragg, Dunn, Angier, Godwin,
Pope AFB, Antioch and Spring Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
50 mph are capable of knocking down small or weakened trees and
blowing around trash cans, potted plants, lawn furniture and other
light outdoor objects.

Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning, especially in urban areas where prolonged heavy rain
can quickly lead to flooding.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 7974 3521 7923 3517 7914
      3517 7910 3519 7910 3521 7915 3525 7917
      3555 7879 3549 7865 3540 7860 3534 7853
      3532 7854 3530 7858 3526 7860 3483 7921
      3484 7935 3481 7936 3477 7964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 245DEG 12KT 3525 7901 3477 7964

77

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