Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
304 PM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Currently...

Monsoon moisture has returned as quite a few showers have developed
over the mtns. Over the plains, a boundary extending east-west over
the north face of the Raton Mesa has initiated convection which is
moving slowly north. A time lapse of regional radar imagery at 2 pm
clearly shows a circulation over the high plains, with the center in
the vicinity of eastern Kiowa county. Temperature over the area were
running about 100F across the lower Arkansas river valley with
90s over the rest of the plains. Valleys were in the upper 80s to
around 90F. Interestingly, PUB is 101 and we are holding a dwpt of
51F.

Rest of this afternoon and into tonight...

Main concern will be over the far eastern plains in the greater
Kiowa county region. Latest guidance continues to indicate boundary
will continue to move north. CAPE values over W KS were 2000 J/KG
and this instability was advecting westward. Given the boundary and
plenty of CAPE, along with the circulation discussed above, the
potential for strong storms with heavy rain will be possible over
this area mainly during the late afternoon through mid evening time
period. Overall, the best chance for strong storms and heavy rain
will generally be north of US50 and east of La junta. The main
severe threat will be strong winds.

By late this evening skies and precip should come to an end with
generally partly to mostly cloudy skies.

In the mountain, scattered shower and thunderstorms will continue,
with decreasing activity later this evening.

Tomorrow...

Nearly all of the activity through 6 pm tomorrow will be over the
mountains with showers and storms developing over the greater El
Paso county region late in the afternoon. Guidance continues to
indicate sufficient monsoon moisture over the region and low level
moisture advecting in from KS. Locally heavy rain will be possible
in the mountains, with the guidance indicating the best potential
over the greater Pikes Peak region. Given this pattern, burn scars
and chalk bluff will have to be monitored for flash flood potential.

Max temps tomorrow will be a bit cooler than the last several days,
although temps will still be several degrees above normal. \/HOdanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

...Active week ahead for thunderstorms across southern CO...

Upper high over the Rockies will continue to circulate monsoon
moisture across CO with weak embedded disturbances in the flow.
Saturday evening looks relatively active across the plains with
easterly flow at the surface beneath modest northwest flow aloft
yielding deep layer shears of around 35 kts. Dew points will stay
in the 50s and even some lower 60s across the eastern plains
which will yield CAPE values of 1500+ J/kg. So another round of
strong to marginally severe storms look possible across northern
and eastern portions of the southeast plains. Drying working
northward from the Raton Mesa region through the evening should
limit convection for southern areas of the plains...though
inverted V soundings in this area would suggest possibility of
strong thunderstorm outflow winds.

Upper trough glancing through the northern U.S. Rockies will send
a cold front through southeast CO on Sunday. Initially
thunderstorms will develop across the mountains during the
afternoon within the monsoon plume aloft. Surface dew points
across the plains will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday
afternoon which puts CAPE values of up to 1000 j/kg. However a
secondary surge makes its push into southeast CO Sunday evening
which increases low level moisture and ramps up thunderstorm
chances for the evening and overnight hours due to lift over the
front. Question will be if this activity stays focused along the
southeast mountains through the night where vulnerable burn scars
are located. H7 winds are advertised to shift out of the northeast
which would provide a favorable upslope component...however 12z
NAM shifts activity southeastward across the plains as cooler air
behind the front deepens. GFS suggests a slower eastward
progression and a potentially wetter solution for the southeast
mountains/southern I-25 corridor through the night. Bottom
line...we may end up needing Flash Flood Watches for Sunday night
for the vulnerable burn scars in the Wets and Sangre de Cristo
mountains (Junkins and Spring)...though its too soon just yet to
hone down these details. Hopefully high res models will provide
some clarity as event ticks closer.

Monday looks like another potentially active day for thunderstorms,
particularly for the southeast mountains and plains as moist post
frontal upslope flow triggers another round of afternoon convection.
Conceptually, Flash Flood watches may be needed this day as well for
the Junkins, Hayden Pass and Spring burn scars. Monday looks
quite a bit cooler with temperatures across the plains staying
primarily in the 80s (instead of the upper 90s to the around 100
degree readings of late).

The upper high pulls westward across the desert southwest through
the remainder of the extended which continues to keep south central
and southeast CO under north to northeast flow aloft.  This will
allow for periodic cold fronts to penetrate through the plains
bringing rounds of upslope and daily thunderstorm chances to the the
southeast mountains and plains. Although main monsoon moisture tap
shifts westward with time, there is still sufficient moisture
recirculating in the upper high to keep daily thunderstorm chances
across the mountains and valleys as well. Certainly though the more
active areas appear to be the southeast mountains and plains and
burn scars will remain vulnerable to flash flooding through this
potentially wet period. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 248 PM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Thunderstorms/outflow gust could occur at each of the 3 taf sites
late this afternoon/early evening with best chance over KPUB.

For tomorrow afternoon, best chance for TSRA through 00 UTC Sunday
will be KCOS, followed by KALS then KPUB.

Otherwise expect VFR conditions with diurnal wind flow. Temps
tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler over the taf sites than the
last several days.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1109 AM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-211715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1109 AM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Isolated to scattered afternoon and early evening thunderstorms will
develop over the mountains. These storms will be capable of
producing locally heavy downpours, which could cause flash flooding
on the recent burn scars. The storms could also produce gusty winds
and cloud to ground lightning.

Later in the afternoon and into the evening, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop over the Interstate 25 corridor and the
eastern plains. Low level moisture will be more abundant east of the
Interstate 25 corridor, where a few storms could be strong to
severe. The best chances for severe storms will be in Crowley,
Otero, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers Counties. The main threats from these
severe storms will be hail around 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts
to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Monsoonal moisture is expected to increase across the area into
early next week, leading to increasing coverage and intensity of
daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across South
Central and Southeast Colorado. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms can be expected across the area Sunday and Monday, with
isolated to scattered storms expected on Saturday, and again
Tuesday through Thursday. The main threats from thunderstorms will
be lightning, locally heavy rain and gusty outflow winds of up to
40 mph. Small hail will also be possible with a few of the
strongest storms. With the increasing moisture and potential for
heavy rainfall, flash flooding concerns will also be on the
increase across the area, especially if locally heavy downpours
occur over a recent burn scar.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible from this afternoon into this evening over the recent burn
scars as well as portions of the eastern plains.

Hodanish

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
348 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2018

COZ086-202215-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
348 PM MDT FRI JUL 20 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 348 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Boone, or 23 miles east of Pueblo. This storm was
nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central Pueblo
County.

LAT...LON 3803 10422 3806 10432 3813 10435 3821 10432
      3825 10423 3824 10411 3819 10407 3808 10407
      3804 10412
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 218DEG 3KT 3814 10421

KTS