Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
323 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Currently...radar is becoming more active across the region with
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains.  Expect this
activity to expand across the I-25 corridor this afternoon based on
the latest high-res model data.  Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible along with flash flooding on area burn scars.  Temperatures
have warmed into the 80s with a few 90s out across the Plains.

Through tonight...high pressure aloft will continue to sit over
Nevada into  Utah while a shortwave trough drops southeast across
Wyoming this evening.  As the upper level disturbance moves across
the region, shower and thunderstorm activity will expand in coverage
through the evening hours.  High-res model solutions move
thunderstorms off the higher terrain, and across the Plains through
midnight before dissipating late.  Locally heavy rainfall will be
the main threat along with lightning.  As the storms move across the
Plains, hail to near one inch in diameter and wind gusts to near 60
mph will be possible.  Overnight lows will remain mild across the
region with 50s to lower 60s.

Wednesday...the high pressure to the west will remain nearly
stationary through the day while the upper disturbance passes into
the Central Plains.  Broad northwesterly flow aloft will usher in
drier air, while a cold front at the surface brings northerly flow
to the Plains, cutting off low level upslope flow.  Residual
moisture and daytime heating will lead to a few showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains, however, coverage looks very
limited at this time.  If one of these storms should hit a burn
scar, flash flooding will remain possible, but the threat will be
low.  Temperatures will start to warm again with highs reaching the
mid to upper 90s across the region.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Center of upper level high pressure slides eastward into Colorado
on Thursday, with dry air mass remaining in place across the
region. Might be just enough residual moisture for isolated
afternoon tsra over the mountains, though storm coverage/intensity
looks sparse/weak. As heights build and mid levels warm, max
temps Thu afternoon will continue a slow upward climb, with
readings 95-105f over the plains, and deep into the 80s across
many mountain/interior valley locations. Weak front drops south
through the plains Thu night into Fri, with deepening upslope and
moisture along/east of the mountains by late Fri afternoon. Mid
levels begin to moisten as well, as upper high drifts eastward
into the TX Panhandle by Fri evening. Should thus see at least a
modest uptick in convection over the area according to the GFS and
NAM, while ECMWF is slightly less aggressive with low level
moisture return and subsequent convection over the plains. Max
temps may drift downward just a degf or two as moisture increases
and high slides east, though most locations will still end up
somewhat above seasonal averages.

Upper high then wanders back westward into the desert sw from late
in the weekend into the middle of next week, with at least a
modest tap of mid level moisture continuing to drift across the
state through the period. Over the eastern mountains and plains,
moist air will make periodic southward/westward surges, with
perhaps a stronger push on Mon as upper wave moves into the nrn
Midwest and surface high builds southward through the plains.
Overall, expect sct afternoon tsra both Sat and Sun across the
mountains, with wly steering currents taking convection across the
I-25 corridor and onto the plains each evening. GFS and ECMWF
then point toward Mon/Tue as being particularly wet, as deepening
moisture interacts with weak upper energy rotating around the
ridge. Temps will continue a slow downward drift through the
weekend and into next week as moisture/clouds increase.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 241 PM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Thunderstorms will be possible through this evening at all three
terminal locations. Brief periods of reduced CIGS and VIS are
possible as they pass near or over the terminals. Erratic winds are
also possible with thunderstorm passage. Expect clearing conditions
by late evening as thunderstorms dissipate and move off to the east.
If KALS should receive rainfall, fog may be possible later tonight
into Wednesday morning.  Drier air will work into the area for
Wednesday with VFR conditions through the afternoon and no chances
for thunderstorms at the terminals.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-181745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1132 AM MDT Tue Jul 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Moderate to heavy rainfall will be capable of producing localized
flash flooding, especially in and near the newer burn scars,
including the Spring, Chateau, Hayden Pass and Junkins burn scars
as well as urban locations that have received heavy rainfall
during the past few days. Flash flooding on area burn scars can
generate dangerous debris flows along with unstable stream banks.

In addition, strong to marginally severe thunderstorms capable of
producing hail around one inch in diameter and wind gusts around 60
mph will be possible from this afternoon and evening, favoring
portions of El Paso, Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

On Wednesday and Thursday, isolated to scattered afternoon and
evening thunderstorms will mostly be confined to over and near the
mountains. With limited moisture, the main threats from these
storms will be gusty winds and lightning.

Starting Friday, atmospheric moisture will increase. Thunderstorms
will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours, which can
lead to flash flooding on recent burn scars. Storms are possible
over much of the region, and the best chances for storms will be
over and near the mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible through this evening over area burn scars and across
portions of the Eastern Plains.

88/88

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