Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
331 PM MDT Wed Jul 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed Jul 11 2018

Satellite images show the upper low over southeast CO today.
Forecast models show this week upper trof remaining over eastern CO,
with the center shifting a bit northward on Thursday.

This evening, areas along the Continental Dvd and the Srn Sangre de
Cristo mtns are expected to be the most active areas with regards to
showers/tstms, but portions of the southeast plains are also
expected to continue seeing isolated to scattered showers/tstms with
circulation around the upper low bringing mstr over the plains. Most
if not all of the precip should end by midnight.

Precipitable water values are forecast to be even higher on
Thursday, and we should see fairly high chances for precip over and
near the mtns in the late morning thru the evening hours, with
isolated to scattered precip over the plains in the afternoon, but
probably increasing toward the evening hours.

Slow moving storms will be a problem this evening and again on Thu,
leading to a flash flooding risk on area burn scars, especially the
more recent burn scars.  With the slow storm movement, and the
increased moisture over the area on Thu, will leave the Flash Flood
Watch in effect. At this point, confidence is low on whether or not
the watch need to be expanded to also cover the Chateau burn scar.
Will let later shifts take a look at newer forecast models runs and
then make a decision.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed Jul 11 2018

...Slow moving thunderstorms and potential for burn scar flash
flooding Thursday and Friday...

Thursday night-Friday night...Current models still indicating a good
chance of showers and storms, especially over and near the higher
terrain, as monsoonal moisture plume is progged to be across the
state. PWATS continue to be progged from near an inch to 1.5 inches
from west to east across the area, which are at and above the 90th
percentile at both GJT and DNR for this time of year. In addition,
light flow aloft will lead to slow moving storms and the potential
for heavy rain and flash flooding, especially if storms develop or
move across the newer burn scars. Ongoing precipitation across the
higher terrain Thursday afternoon looks to spread east across the I-
25 Corridor and the southeast Plains Thursday evening, with the
minor embedded disturbance continuing to lift north and east across
the Plains. Friday continues to look wet, although an additional
trigger for thunderstorm development looks more diffuse than on
Thursday. At any rate, with the available moisture and solar
heating, should see storms developing over and near the higher
terrain late Friday morning through the early evening, with a few
storms possibly spreading across the Plains in the afternoon and
evening hours. Current Flash Flood Watch for the new burn scar areas
continues through Thursday evening, and may need another on for
Friday, however, will need to evaluate future model runs and
precipitation areas before issuing.

Saturday-Sunday...Models indicating some differences in available
moisture through this period, with the EC shunting the best moisture
south and west of the area with weak north to northeast flow aloft
and the upper high centered north and west of the area. The GFS is
keeping the high just south of the area with weak westerly flow and
moisture in place across the state. Hard to say which solution is
more correct at this time, and stayed close to a blended model
solution, with keeps isolated to scattered pops across the area both
days, with the best pops over the higher terrain. If the EC is more
correct, best chances Saturday and Sunday would be along and west of
the ContDvd, whereas the GFS has better coverage across all of the
higher terrain.

Monday-Wednesday...Models continue to indicate differences through
this period, with the EC now indicating the wetter solution, as flow
eastern Pacific energy moving across the Northern Tier shunts the
high south and opens the door to the moisture plume within more
westerly flow aloft. The GFS, however, has the eastern Pacific
energy moving across the area Sunday, and then repositions the upper
high across eastern Utah and keeps drier northerly flow aloft across
the area through Wedensday. Again, with alot of uncertainty in the
forecast, have stayed close to blended model solutions, keeping
isolated to scattered pops, most numerous across the higher terrain,
along with temperatures around seasonal levels through middle of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 331 PM MDT Wed Jul 11 2018

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS and KPUB the next 24 hrs,
unless a tstm with heavy rain moves over the forecast point. There
is a chance that the forecast sites could see tstms in the vicinity
this evening, but chances will be higher tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ072>075-079-080-087.

&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1113 AM MDT Wed Jul 11 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-121715-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1113 AM MDT Wed Jul 11 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Upper low pressure and monsoon moisture, will interact to bring
an uptick in thunderstorm activity today. The most widespread
activity will be over the southern and western mountain areas,
including the Spring Fire scar. Primary storm concerns today will
be lightning, wind gusts to around 40 mph and locally heavy rain.
Rainfall may be heavy enough to cause flash flooding on area burn
scars. This would include the Spring and Chateau burn scars as
well as older ones such as the Junkins and Hayden Pass scars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Monsoon moisture will continue to increase for Thursday and Friday
bringing the potential for heavy rainfall from slow moving
thunderstorms, across much of southern Colorado. This will bring
the risk for flash flooding on active and recent burn scars,
particularly Spring, Hayden Pass and Junkins. This threat may
spread northward to include the Chateau burn scar on Friday. A
moist pattern will continue into early next week with scattered
thunderstorms possible each day, particularly across the
mountains. Sunday may see another elevated flash flood threat for
area burn scars.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible this afternoon and evening in or near area burn scars.

28/28

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
215 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

COZ093-112045-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
215 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN OTERO COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM MDT...

At 215 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Timpas, or 11 miles southwest of La Junta, moving north at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Junta, North La Junta, Swink and Timpas.

LAT...LON 3770 10376 3774 10387 3785 10392 3794 10389
      3802 10380 3803 10362 3798 10349 3785 10345
      3777 10348 3769 10360
TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 164DEG 15KT 3784 10367

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
422 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

COZ093-094-097-112245-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
422 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...NORTHEASTERN
LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 422 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles north of Kim, or 35 miles south of North La Junta, moving north
at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee.

LAT...LON 3718 10327 3743 10347 3780 10356 3772 10311
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 191DEG 14KT 3748 10335

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
449 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

COZ093-094-097-099-112330-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
449 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...NORTHWESTERN
BACA...EAST CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM MDT...

At 449 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Kim, or 31 miles west of Springfield, moving north
at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kim and Higbee.

LAT...LON 3732 10310 3721 10350 3778 10349 3774 10296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 190DEG 27KT 3742 10320

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
507 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

COZ095>098-112330-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
507 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PROWERS...SOUTH
CENTRAL KIOWA AND NORTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MDT...

At 506 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wiley, or 7 miles north of Lamar, moving northwest at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Wiley, Neeoshe Reservoir, Neegronda Reservoir, Sweetwater
Reservoir and Queens Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3818 10249 3807 10267 3834 10300 3850 10273
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 142DEG 16KT 3819 10264

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
509 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

COZ081-082-085-112345-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-Pikes Peak above 11000 Ft CO-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
509 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TELLER AND WEST
CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 509 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southwestern Colorado Springs, moving west at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Colorado Springs, Manitou Springs, Green Mountain Falls, Pikes Peak,
Stratmoor, Chipita Park, Cascade, Fort Carson and Security-Widefield.

LAT...LON 3889 10472 3876 10476 3872 10504 3894 10504
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 103DEG 14KT 3883 10484

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
531 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

COZ095>098-120015-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
Western Kiowa County CO-Eastern Kiowa County CO-
531 PM MDT WED JUL 11 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PROWERS...CENTRAL
KIOWA AND NORTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 530 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lamar, moving north at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lamar, Eads, Wiley, Neeoshe Reservoir, Sweetwater Reservoir,
Neegronda Reservoir and Queens Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3810 10244 3803 10265 3847 10294 3857 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 157DEG 26KT 3814 10258

Hodanish