Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
314 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Currently...radar indicates one severe thunderstorms exiting
northern El Paso County, with more isolated weaker convection over
the mountains into the I-25 corridor. Temperatures across the
Plains are cool, with generally 70s so far for highs. Southeast
winds have ushered in higher dewpoint air, but instability has
been much weaker and the atmosphere somewhat capped. SPC still has
areas over the far southeast Plains under a slight risk of
thunderstorms. Any storms that do develop over the far southeast
Plains will be capable of producing greater than one inch in
diameter hail and 60 mph winds. Further west over the Eastern
Mountains, thunderstorms are also expected, with small hail,
locally heavy rainfall and lightning being the main threats. If
one of these storms can move over a burn scar, rain rates will
likely be high enough to produce flash flooding. The San Luis
valley is currently seeing Red Flag conditions with winds up to 40
mph expected and humidity values less than 15 percent.

Tonight...models in good agreement with a cold front dropping south
across the Plains by this evening.  Expect this front to help with
convection this evening, especially south along the New Mexico
border.  As the front moves south, expect showers and thunderstorms
to clear to the south and east by midnight.  Expect broad northwest
flow aloft to fill in behind a departing upper level low over
Nebraska.  This will usher in drier air across Colorado later
tonight with clearing skies and dry conditions heading into Monday
morning.

Monday...high pressure is forecast to build over Utah and continue
to bring drier air into Colorado under northwest flow.  Temperatures
will begin to warm across the region with 80s for highs across the
Plains.  Decreasing moisture and lack of instability will keep
shower and thunderstorm development from occurring across the
mountain areas, with dry conditions expected to prevail.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...Hot and dry...

Southwestern upper ridge builds through mid week as Pacific NW
trough drifts northward into Canada. Hottest days look to be on
Wed/Thu as heights/mid level temps peak with perhaps a boost from
increased swly flow on Thu as ridge axis begins to drift east.
Models develop some high based convection Wed afternoon/evening
as mid level moisture subtlety increases, though chances of
anything more than sprinkles look very low. May see some critical
fire weather conditions develop from Thu into the weekend as new
upper trough moves through the wrn U.S., with increasing swly
winds ahead of the system, especially Fri. Temps will begin to
drift back downward over the weekend as cold front moves through,
though little in the way of precip is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. West winds will be
gusty, to near 40 kts into this evening. Winds will subside
overnight with generally clear skies into Monday afternoon.

KCOS and KPUB...thunderstorms have developed north of KCOS and could
impact the terminal through this evening.  A few showers have also
developed near KPUB, but have had a hard time getting going.
Thunderstorms will remain possible at both terminals through this
evening with reduced CIGS and VIS the primary aviation concerns.  A
cold front will drop south this evening with gusts to near 25 kts
possible.  A return to VFR conditions is forecast after midnight
with generally clear skies and light winds heading into Monday
afternoon. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ224.

&&

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOZLEY

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 AM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-251745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1132 AM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along, and east of the Eastern Mountains early this afternoon,
and spread east across the Eastern Plains through this evening. A
few storms will be capable of becoming severe as they move across
the Plains this afternoon. These thunderstorms will be capable of
producing hail in excess of one inch in diameter and wind gusts to
60 mph. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, and burn scars
may see an increased flash flooding potential if a strong storm
moves over one.

There is an enhanced risk of severe storms over the far
southeastern Plains for this afternoon and evening, primarily
south and east of a Trinchera to La Junta line. This area will be
capable of seeing large hail, to two inches in diameter or larger
and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. An isolated tornado may also
be possible through this evening.

Across the San Luis Valley, gusty southwest winds, existing dry
conditions and low humidity values, will result in critical fire
weather conditions through this evening. Conditions will be
favorable for rapid rates of fire growth and spread.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday over the
mountains along the Continental Divide and over Teller county and
Pikes Peak. The main storm threats will be lightning and gusty
outflow winds.

High fire danger will be possible on Thursday, especially over the
high valleys and the far southeast plains, and will be possible
Friday, mainly from the I-25 corridor and westward. On Saturday,
there should be some localized fire weather concerns in the high
valley locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely along and east of the eastern mountains, east across the
Plains through this evening.

88/88

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