Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
548 PM MDT Thu Jun 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 PM MDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Updated to add isolated pops across northern El Paso County
through the early evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Not much convection across the area this afternoon, as only some
weak cells have formed in nern NM and west of KDEN as of 21z.
Mesoanalysis and HRRR suggest activity will remain sparse this
evening, with best chance of a storm from the NM border eastward
into Baca county. Could also see some virga/sprinkles drop south
across Teller and nrn El Paso counties early this evening before
activity dies toward sunset. Overnight, strengthening low level jet
may provide enough lift to keep a slight chance of tsra going
through the night along the CO/KS border, though better forcing
would appear to be just southeast of the area in the TX Panhandle.

On Friday, upper wave passes to the north of the region, with band
of stronger mid/upper level winds moving across srn CO during the
afternoon. Air mass looks dry enough to drop humidity below 15
percent over the mountains and along the srn I-25 corridor, and will
convert the Fire Wx Watch to a Red Flag Warning, plus add Teller
county/Pikes Peak, as drier air will spread eastward into the area
from Park county by afternoon. On the plains, low level moisture and
instability lurk along and just east of I-25 through the day, with
last couple runs of the NAM holding the moist air slightly farther
west than the GFS. Will certainly have enough CAPE (1000-2000 J/KG)
and shear (0-6km around 50 kts) for storms over the plains by
afternoon, though with upper support fairly far to the north, storm
initiation will be the main problem. Best guess is convergence along
the Palmer Divide and far east end of the Raton Mesa will be enough
to develop at least isolated convection, with storms potentially
intensifying as they reach the more unstable air near the KS border
toward 00z. Certainly a threat for large hail over the far east,
with SWODY2 slight risk covering much of the southeast plains
looking reasonable.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jun 21 2018

Models remain in good agreement through the extended period and
ensemble spreads remain low. This all leads to higher forecast
confidence through the extended period.

Friday night...strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to be
ongoing near the Kansas border Friday evening. These thunderstorms
will have developed along a dryline and will be making their way
east into western Kansas through the evening hours. Large hail
will be the primary threat along with lightning. Expect the severe
activity to push off into western Kansas by midnight. Behind the
departing convection, a cold front will drop south across the
Plains and shift flow northerly through Saturday morning.

Saturday...upper level high pressure will build across Colorado
for Saturday with generally dry conditions expected across the
region. There will likely be enough residual moisture around to
produce a couple of weak afternoon and evening thunderstorms over
the mountains. Temperatures will also likely warm into the lower
to mid 90s across the lower elevations.

Sunday into Monday...an upper level low pressure center will drop
south out of the Northern Rockies and across northern Colorado
Sunday into Monday. The main concerns for Sunday will be the
potential for dangerous fire weather concerns over western
Colorado, and severe weather across the Plains. Gusty westerly
winds and expected low humidity values will likely produce
dangerous fire weather conditions over the Continental Divide, San
Luis Valley and Eastern Mountains on Sunday afternoon. This will
need to be monitored closely. Further east, much will depend on
where the dryline will develop. Current model projections indicate
severe weather will be possible from the Palmer Divide, southeast
across the Plains to Baca County. Large hail and gusty outflow
winds will be the primary threat. Expect most thunderstorms
activity to shift east of the area through the overnight hours. By
Monday, the upper system will be slowly making its way into
Nebraska. Wrap around moisture and upslope flow across the Plains
will likely lead to shower and thunderstorm development on the
back side of the upper low. Expect cooler conditions Monday with
80s for highs.

Tuesday through Thursday...the upper level low will continue to
lift away from the area with broad high pressure developing over
the Desert Southwest. This will build northward across Colorado
through the middle of the week with warming temperatures. Embedded
disturbances rotating up and around the high pressure to the
south will bring diurnally driven afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms to the mountains. This activity will likely
spread east into the I-25 corridor before dissipating with sunset
each day.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Jun 21 2018

VFR conditions at all taf sites overnight and through 18z on Fri.
Slight chance of a tsra returns to both KPUB and KCOS beginning 18z-
20z Fri, before activity shifts eastward across the plains around
00z. Hail and strong winds will be possible with any storms that
form on Fri, with a period of IFR cigs/vis under any stronger
convection.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Friday for COZ220>225-229-
230.

&&

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
614 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2018

COZ084-085-220045-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below
7400 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
614 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM MDT...

At 614 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Black Forest, or 17 miles north of Colorado Springs, moving east at
45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monument, Calhan, Black Forest, Peyton, Gleneagle and Falcon.

LAT...LON 3906 10415 3880 10427 3900 10484 3913 10482
      3913 10458
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 288DEG 38KT 3907 10472

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
735 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2018

COZ089-095-220200-
Crowley County CO-Western Kiowa County CO-
735 PM MDT THU JUN 21 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN KIOWA AND NORTHEASTERN
CROWLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

At 735 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Forder, or 41 miles northwest of La Junta, moving
southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sugar City.

LAT...LON 3836 10341 3816 10364 3850 10403 3852 10400
      3852 10369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0135Z 312DEG 34KT 3852 10389

Hodanish

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