Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Currently...GOES-16 water vapor imagery reveals a broad upper low
centered over the northern Rockies with its southern lobe
rotating through Colorado. An upper level jet associated with this
trough is poking into southwest Colorado, its left exit region
over eastern Colorado. The strong large-scale forcing combined
with favorable low level moisture has led to the development of
thunderstorms, mainly along the I-25 corridor north of EL Paso
County and in Las Animas and Baca Counties. SPC mesoanalysis
indicates MLCAPE generally between 1500 j/kg and 2000 j/kg, with
deep layer sheer of 40-50 knots. Cumulus clouds have developed
across the eastern and central mountains. Winds across the San
Luis Valley are gusting over 30 mph, and with low RH, is causing
brief period of critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures
across the plains span the mid 80s to low 90s, while the high
valleys are into the low 80s.

Tonight...Thunderstorm activity will persist across the forecast
area east of the mountains through much of the evening. Given
moderate CAPE and high shear, rotating storms are expected across
the forecast area with the potential to produce hail up to 2" in
diameter and damaging wind gusts. An isolated tornado or two will
also be possible, with the greatest potential over the Palmer Divide
where winds are backed and LCL's are lower. CAM's are consistent on
two distinct rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. This first
round will continue to shift east to the far eastern plains by
around 8 PM. The next round will push south across the plains
thereafter from northwest to southeast. The threat should be over
across the I-25 corridor by midnight and far southeast plains not
until 5 AM or so. Given strong forcing, storm coverage will be
scattered to widespread, with flash flooding possible in situations
of training thunderstorms, especially over urban areas. Above
average TPW over 1" supports heavy rainfall.

Tomorrow...The upper trough accelerates east away from Colorado
leading to QG subsidence over the state as a ridge builds over the
southwest US and heights begin to rise. This pattern will lead to a
much calmer weather day compared to Tuesday. At the surface,
northerly flow behind the storm system will persist across the
plains through the morning before shifting east during the afternoon
and evening. This will help keep surface dew points in the 40s
during the afternoon. The lack of moisture combined with a lack of
strong large scale forcing will limit thunderstorm potential. With
weak energy in northwest flow, only an isolated and weak afternoon
thunderstorm or shower is forecast over the eastern mountains/Palmer
Divide/Raton Mesa or far eastern plains. Temperatures will be cooler
during the day, with highs forecast to be in the mid 80s across the
plains, low 80s in the high valleys, and mid 70s in Colorado
Springs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Wed night a low pressure system over western NE will be moving
southeastward, and will move into central KS by Thu morning.  This
system will send a front thru southeast CO early Wed evening. There
will be the potential for some isolated showers/tstms over the
southeast plains and mtns, while the western areas are expected to
remain dry.

An upper level ridge will build over the area on Thu and the NAM has
dry weather acrs southeast and south central CO.  The GFS shows the
potential for just some isolated precip over the srn mtns in the
late afternoon or early evening hours, and then overnight it shows
precip potential for much of the southeast plains.  Temps Thu should
be around average acrs the southeast plains, and a little above
average in the San Luis Valley and Upper Arkansas River Valley.

On Fri and upper trof moving over the northern Rockies will flatten
the ridge over the area, and is expected to send a front into
southeast CO late in the day.  Precip chances generally look
confined to the far southeast plains, unless the ECMWF pans out,
which shows chances for precip over the mtns and plains.  Gusty
winds over the mtns and western areas on Fri, along with low
humidities, may lead to fire weather concerns.

Sat and upper low will be moving from the Pacific Northwest into the
Great Basin.  It looks dry over southern CO during the day Sat, but
a passing disturbance may bring some precip Sat evening and into the
late night.  There is a lot of uncertainty as to where the upper low
will track on Sun.  The ECMWF takes it acrs northern WY, while the
GFS moves it into northwest CO Sun evening. The model differences
continue into Mon...the ECMWF has the low center in central SD by
evening, with an upper ridge building over the Desert SW, while the
GFS keeps an upper trof over CO.  So, there is low confidence in the
forecast for Sun and Mon. Tue an upper ridge should be the main
feature affecting the area, with generally dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Thunderstorms will be possible near KPUB and KCOS terminals this
evening through close to midnight. However, confidence is not high
that thunderstorms will move directly over either terminal, as
coverage will remain isolated to widely scattered over the I-25
corridor. If thunderstorms do manage to move over a terminal, they
may cause gusty/erratic winds, hail, heavy rain, lightning, and CIGS
to MVFR. Thunderstorm coverage will shift east and expand across
most of the eastern Colorado plains through the evening. KALS will
remain dry through the period.

South/East winds at KCOS and KPUB will become northerly by late
afternoon/early evening with the passage of a front, from north to
south. Winds at KALS will stay out of the west through the evening
before becoming variable.

VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites through the
period except in the presence of a thunderstorm at KCOS and KPUB,
which would cause reduction to at least MVFR.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LINE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...LINE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
348 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             4 SE STONINGTON         37.27N 102.13W
06/19/2018  M0.88 INCH       BACA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
403 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             1 WSW MONUMENT          39.09N 104.88W
06/19/2018  M0.88 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
406 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2018

COZ097>099-192245-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-
406 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS...NORTHERN
BACA AND SOUTHEASTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 406 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles west of Two Buttes Reservoir, or 25 miles northwest of
Springfield, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Prowers...northern Baca and southeastern Bent Counties.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for southeastern
Colorado.

LAT...LON 3758 10289 3766 10301 3803 10277 3781 10228
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 225DEG 35KT 3770 10289

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
407 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2018

COZ081-084-192245-
Teller County/Rampart Range above 7500fT/Pike's Peak Between 7500 And
11000 Ft CO-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Ft
CO-
407 PM MDT TUE JUN 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 407 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Monument, or 18 miles north of Colorado Springs, moving east at 30
mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monument, Palmer Lake, Calhan and Gleneagle.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM MDT for east central
Colorado.

LAT...LON 3903 10430 3905 10493 3913 10493 3913 10431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 264DEG 24KT 3911 10483

kam