Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Pueblo, CO

122 
WWUS55 KPUB 172242
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
442 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

COC043-119-172315-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-180817T2315Z/
Fremont CO-Teller CO-
442 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FREMONT AND SOUTH CENTRAL TELLER COUNTIES...

At 441 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Victor, or 23
miles southwest of Colorado Springs, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
rural areas of southern Teller county and northeast Fremont county. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 10534 3875 10518 3860 10496 3842 10510
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 313DEG 5KT 3864 10518 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

28

212 
WWUS55 KPUB 172251
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
451 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

COC119-172300-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-180817T2315Z/
Teller CO-
451 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TELLER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3866 10527 3864 10524 3864 10522 3860 10496
      3842 10510 3858 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 309DEG 6KT 3861 10523 

$$

COC043-172315-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-180817T2315Z/
Fremont CO-
451 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY...

At 450 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Victor, or 27 miles southwest of Colorado Springs, moving southeast
at 5 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Rural areas of northeast Fremont county.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 10527 3864 10524 3864 10522 3860 10496
      3842 10510 3858 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 309DEG 6KT 3861 10523 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

28

354 
WWUS55 KPUB 172309
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
509 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

COC043-172319-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0291.000000T0000Z-180817T2315Z/
Fremont CO-
509 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FREMONT COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 515 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small 
hail and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm over 
northeast Fremont county.

LAT...LON 3866 10527 3864 10524 3864 10522 3860 10496
      3842 10510 3858 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2309Z 313DEG 5KT 3859 10521 

$$

28

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 PM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

...Storms with Increasing Severe Threat on Saturday...

Today's round of storms are underway and increasing.  The trailing
edge of a weak shortwave to the north may be providing an assist to
the storms over the immediate Pikes Peak Region.  Farther south, the
wave is likely having little impact.  However, moisture is ample
with surface dewpoints all across the plains in the upper 50s to
middle 60s.  The dewpoint at KPUB this afternoon has been hovering
around 65-66 degrees...which is about as high as it ever get pre-
storm.  Same deal at KCOS...with a dewpoint of 62...about as high as
you see it pre-storm.   Clutter streamers on radar indicate well
defined southeast flow into the storms along the Palmer Divide right
now.  This flow will feed moisture-laden air into the storms across
El Paso County.  Have had some quarter to golf ball size hail from
warned-storms over El Paso County so far.  Additional concerns will
be heavy rain and urban flooding as storms move across the urban
areas.  Main concerns from storms farther south this evening will be
locally heavy rain due to ample moisture and slow/backbuilding storm
motions.  Burn scars, as usual, will be of particular concern with
regard to the flash flood threat this evening.  High resolution
models show storms continuing east across the plains through the
evening hours, largely clearing the state by around midnight.

Saturday continues to look like a more organized, higher severe
threat day.  A fairly strong shortwave will move through during peak
heating in a high CAPE environment.  This should be a good trigger
for convection that may organize into a squall line across the
plains, most likely east of the I-25 corridor.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

Recent model solutions continue to indicate that large-scale
lift and north-northeasterly surface surge pushing across
southeastern Colorado and then into northeastern New Mexico by
03Z Sunday combines with localized capes, LI's, deep layer shear
and precipitable water values nearing/exceeding 1600 J/KG, -7C, 40
knots and 1 inch respectively at times, which will allow strong
to severe thunderstorms(also capable of generating heavy rainfall
and localized flooding) to be ongoing/developing along and east of
the eastern mountains/Interstate 25 corridor Saturday afternoon
before shifting into the southeastern Colorado plains from later
Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening and will continue to
depict this potential in upcoming grids/zones.

Longer range models now suggest that decreased storm
activity(compared to the previous few days) should be realized
from Sunday into Tuesday morning as upper ridging building into
southern Colorado combines with forecast precipitable water values
along the Interstate 25 corridor decreasing to around 0.50 inches
at times(when compared to the rather impressive precipitable
water values near 1.25 inches today and tomorrow).

Then, rising precipitable water values in combination with
passing upper disturbances will allow for increased precipitation
chances over southern Colorado from later Tuesday into next
Friday and will portray in grids/zones.

Lastly, coolest conditions during the longer term are expected
Sunday and Monday, while warmest readings should be noted from
Wednesday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 342 PM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

A weak upper level disturbance and ample moisture will keep
scattered thunderstorms going across the flight area into the
evening.  Another round of storms will move from west to east across
the flight area Saturday afternoon.  Those storms have the potential
to become organized into a squall line across the plains, mainly
east of the I-25 corridor, during the afternoon into the evening.

KCOS, KPUB and KALS will all see thunderstorms at or near the
terminals this evening.  Primary storm hazards will include
lightning, wind gusts to around 50 mph, locally heavy rain, and pea
to quarter size hail.  Low clouds will be possible again tonight at
the KCOS and KPUB terminals depending on how convective outflow
evolves this evening.  Each terminal will see another chance of
storms Saturday afternoon with slightly stronger winds and larger
hail possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1155 AM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-181800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1155 AM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms that are developing over the mountains will
increase and spread eastward early this afternoon. Storms will
spread onto the I-25 corridor during the mid to late afternoon
hours before continuing east across the rest of the plains through
the evening hours.

A few storms along and east of the I-25 corridor may become
severe today, producing hail to the size of quarters and wind
gusts to 60 mph. Otherwise, the primary concerns with storms today
will be lightning, wind gusts to 50 mph, locally heavy rain, and
small hail. Additionally, storms that move across burn scars will
have the potential to produce flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across the
eastern mountains and plains Saturday afternoon and evening.
Possible storm hazards will include large hail, winds in excess
of 60 mph, heavy rain, and lightning. Additionally, storms that
track over burn scars will have the potential to produce flash
flooding. Storm chances will decrease Sunday and Monday, before
increasing again for the rest of the week. Primary storm threats
during the week will be lightning, locally heavy rain, wind gusts
to 50 mph, small hail, and burn scar flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will
be possible this afternoon and evening across much of the area.

50/50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
340 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SSE AIR FORCE ACADEMY 38.93N 104.85W
08/17/2018  M1.03 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN 25 MINUTES.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
350 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             3 SE COLORADO SPRINGS   38.80N 104.78W
08/17/2018  M1.75 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
354 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

COZ086-093-094-172245-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
354 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN OTERO...NORTHEASTERN
LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 353 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Delhi, or 28 miles southwest of La Junta, moving north
at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail, wind gusts up to 50 mph, locally heavy rain and
lightning are expected with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Timpas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3755 10377 3755 10398 3795 10406 3798 10386
      3794 10368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 184DEG 20KT 3766 10389

lw

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
355 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W PETERSON AFB        38.83N 104.75W
08/17/2018  M1.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN PAST 20 MINUTES. STILL RAINING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
409 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             2 E MANITOU SPRINGS     38.86N 104.87W
08/17/2018  E1.50 INCH       EL PASO            CO   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL
            WITH A FEW UP TO 1.5 INCH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
432 PM MDT FRI AUG 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE FOUNTAIN          38.69N 104.68W
08/17/2018  M0.85 INCH       EL PASO            CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&