Alert archive / Colorado / Flash Flood Watches in 2018

Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Pueblo, CO

July 4, 201811 counties in Colorado

NWS Pueblo, CO issued this flash flood watch at Jul 4, 2018, 3:36 PM MDT for 11 counties in Colorado. It took effect at Jul 5, 2018, 12:00 PM MDT. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 4, 2018, 3:36 PM MDT (21:36 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 5, 2018, 12:00 PM MDT
Expired
Jul 5, 2018, 8:06 PM MDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
NWS Pueblo, CO
Flood severity
None

Counties Alamosa County, CO, Chaffee County, CO, Costilla County, CO, Custer County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Fremont County, CO, Huerfano County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Saguache County, CO, Teller County, CO

The radar

The Pueblo radar (KPUX), 101 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 262 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2018-07-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 36 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2018-07-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 10 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
36 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-425 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
2663 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-28 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

194 
WGUS65 KPUB 042136
FFAPUB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
336 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

...Flash Flood Watch for Area Burn Scars from Noon to Midnight
Thursday...

.A brief influx of monsoon moisture will combined with a surge of
moist, low level upslope flow to produce the threat of flash 
flooding on area burn scars Thursday afternoon and evening.

COZ072>081-083-087-050600-
/O.NEW.KPUB.FF.A.0001.180705T1800Z-180706T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Silver Cliff, 
Westcliffe, Rye, Woodland Park, Canon City, Penrose, 
and Walsenburg
336 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for the burn scars in southeast and east
  central Colorado. This watch is primarily for the currently
  active Spring, Chateau and Adobe burn scars as well as the
  older Junkins and Hayden Pass scars.

* From Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening

* A combination of monsoon moisture, moist low level upslope flow
  and slow storm movement will result in the potential for flash 
  flooding on areas burn scars, particularly if they are fresh.

* As little as 0.30 inches of water in a short period of time may
  result in dangerous flash flooding and debris flows. Personnel
  working in and around burn scars should have escape routes and
  safety zones prepared.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
491 
WGUS65 KPUB 050452
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1052 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

...Flash Flood Watch for Area Burn Scars from Noon to Midnight
Thursday...

.A brief influx of monsoon moisture will combine with a surge of 
moist, low level upslope flow to produce the threat of flash 
flooding on area burn scars Thursday afternoon and evening.

COZ072>081-083-087-051300-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0001.180705T1800Z-180706T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Silver Cliff, 
Westcliffe, Rye, Woodland Park, Canon City, Penrose, 
and Walsenburg
1052 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Primarily for the currently active Spring, Chateau and Adobe 
  burn scars, as well as the older Junkins and Hayden Pass scars.

* From Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening

* A combination of monsoon moisture, moist low level upslope 
  flow and slow storm movement will result in the potential for 
  flash flooding on areas burn scars, particularly if they are 
  fresh. 

* As little as 0.30 inches of water in a short period of time 
  may result in dangerous flash flooding and debris flows. 
  Personnel working in and around burn scars should have escape 
  routes and safety zones prepared. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
150 
WGUS65 KPUB 050957
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
357 AM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...Flash Flood Watch for Area Burn Scars from Noon to Midnight
Thursday...

.A brief influx of monsoon moisture will combine with a surge of
moist, low level upslope flow to produce the threat of flash
flooding on area burn scars Thursday afternoon and evening.

COZ072>081-083-087-051800-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0001.180705T1800Z-180706T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Silver Cliff, 
Westcliffe, Rye, Woodland Park, Canon City, Penrose, 
and Walsenburg
357 AM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* The current active burn scars including Spring, Chateau and
  Adobe, as well as the older Junkins and Hayden Pass burn scars.

* From noon MDT today through this evening

* A combination of monsoon moisture, moist low level upslope flow
  and slow storm movement will result in the potential for flash
  flooding on areas burn scars, particularly the newer burn 
  scars.
 
* As little as 0.30 inches of water in a short period of time 
  may result in dangerous flash flooding and debris flows. 
  Personnel working in and around burn scars should have escape 
  routes and safety zones prepared. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
977 
WGUS65 KPUB 051752
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1152 AM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...Flash Flood Watch for Area Burn Scars from Noon to Midnight
Thursday...

.A brief influx of monsoon moisture will combine with a surge of
moist, low level upslope flow to produce the threat of flash
flooding on area burn scars Thursday afternoon and evening.

COZ072>081-083-087-060200-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0001.180705T1800Z-180706T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Silver Cliff, 
Westcliffe, Rye, Woodland Park, Canon City, Penrose, 
and Walsenburg
1152 AM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* The current active burn scars including Spring, Chateau and
  Adobe, as well as the older Junkins and Hayden Pass scars.

* Through this evening

* A combination of monsoon moisture, moist low level upslope flow
  and slow storm movement will result in the potential for flash
  flooding on area burn scars, particularly the newer burn scars. 

* As little as 0.30 inches of water in a short period of time may
  result in dangerous flash flooding and debris flows. Personnel
  working in and around burn scars should adjust their escape
  routes and safety zones to account for this threat.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
413 
WGUS65 KPUB 052102
FFAPUB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
302 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...Flash Flood Watch for Area Burn Scars and the Pikes Peak Region
continues through midnight Thursday...

.A brief influx of monsoon moisture will combine with a surge of
moist, low level upslope flow to produce the threat of flash
flooding on area burn scars this afternoon and evening.

COZ084-085-060515-
/O.EXA.KPUB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180706T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-
Including the cities of Black Forest, Colorado Springs, 
and Peterson AFB
302 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Pueblo has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of east central 
  Colorado, including the following areas, Northern El Paso 
  County and Southern El Paso County. 

* Until midnight MDT tonight

* A combination of monsoon moisture, moist low level upslope flow
  and slow storm movement will result in the potential for flash
  flooding across the Pikes Peak region this afternoon and 
  evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

COZ072>081-083-087-060515-
/O.CON.KPUB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180706T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Silver Cliff, 
Westcliffe, Rye, Woodland Park, Canon City, Penrose, 
and Walsenburg
302 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Colorado and southeast Colorado, including 
  the following areas, in central Colorado, Fremont County and 
  Teller County and the Rampart Range. In southeast Colorado, 
  Huerfano County, Northern Sangre De Cristo Mountains, Southern 
  Sangre De Cristo Mountains, Wet Mountain Valley, and Wet 
  Mountains. 

* Until midnight MDT tonight

* A combination of monsoon moisture, moist low level upslope 
  flow and slow storm movement will result in the potential for 
  flash flooding on area burn scars, particularly the newer burn 
  scars. 

* As little as 0.30 inches of water in a short period of time 
  may result in dangerous flash flooding and debris flows. 
  Personnel working in and around burn scars should adjust their 
  escape routes and safety zones to account for this threat. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
460 
WGUS65 KPUB 060206
FFAPUB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
806 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...Flash Flood watch is cancelled...

.Occasional light rain is possible through the evening. 
Precipitation amounts will be too light for flash flooding, even 
on the area burn scars. 

COZ072>081-083>085-087-060315-
/O.CAN.KPUB.FF.A.0001.000000T0000Z-180706T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of La Veta Pass, Poncha Pass, Blanca Peak, 
Cuchara, Stonewall, Weston, Spanish Peaks, Coaldale, Cotopaxi, 
Hillside, Howard, Swissvale, Texas Creek, Silver Cliff, 
Westcliffe, Rye, Woodland Park, Canon City, Penrose, 
Black Forest, Colorado Springs, Peterson AFB, and Walsenburg
806 PM MDT Thu Jul 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of central Colorado, east
central Colorado, and southeast Colorado has been cancelled.
Occasional light rain is possible for the rest of the evening,
and flash flooding is not anticipated. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 4, 11:56 AM MDT, 3 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 11:56 AM MDT, 3 hours 40 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1156 AM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 438 AM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

One more hot day expected today with thunderstorm chances increasing
for northern sections of the plains late this afternoon where a cold
front will be positioned.  Remainder of south central and southeast
CO, save for the far eastern counties east of the dry line, looks a
little drier than yesterday though high based moisture may still
support a high based thunderstorm or two across the mountains. These
will be capable of producing erratic gusty winds.  High res models
keep these pretty sparse in coverage so don't think gusty winds will
be widespread enough or persistent enough to warrant any fire
weather highlights.  Flow aloft looks weaker too in model soundings
which should limit the strength of synoptic winds this afternoon.
Exception to this will be across the far eastern plains where
southerly winds east of the dry line will gust to around 30-40 mph
late this afternoon into this evening...particularly in and near
developing thunderstorms.

With southwesterly fetch suggesting some drying moving in based on
WV imagery have cut back model blend pops to isolated for the
mountain areas.  It won't be until the cold front pushes southward
this evening across the plains that thunderstorm chances may
increase a bit and even then, the southern mountains really don't
look to get into the action until more into tomorrow.

As for severe chances, dew points will creep into the 40s and lower
50s behind the front across northern portions of the southeast
plains which will yield CAPE values of around 1000+ J/kg across the
Palmer Divide and Kiowa county.  A dry line will also set up across
the far eastern counties of Baca, eastern Las Animas, Bent, and
Prowers counties where CAPE may approach similar values.  With light
flow aloft however, deep layer shears will remain weak.  The highest
values will be across northern portions of the southeast plains
which will approach 30 kts. Soundings suggest main threat will be
gusty outflow winds which could approach 60 mph across the northern
and eastern portions of the plains. However as the front pushes
southward this evening models develop some isolated thunderstorms
behind the front which could affect the far eastern plains into the
overnight hours. CAPE increases into the evening so some marginally
severe hail would also be possible along behind the front through
03z.

Cold front will push through the remainder of the southeast plains
tonight.  Expect a wind shift from the north which will become gusty
during the evening for a few hours as it moves through.  Gusts to 35
to 40 mph will be possible behind the front...particularly where it
makes a stronger push southward as it becomes enhanced by
thunderstorm outflows. Will keep low temperatures on the warm side
tonight as the front should result in better mixing and cloud cover
will remain more persistent.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 438 AM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

The extended forecast period is dominated by a broad upper level
high pressure system spanning a large portion of the country. With
increasing moisture across the forecast area, fire weather does not
appear to be a concern in the next week.

Thursday and Friday...On Thursday, models are in excellent agreement
on the high being centered over Colorado, leading to very weak
mid/upper level flow over the state. Southeasterly flow from the
surface through 700 mb will advect above seasonal levels of moisture
into the state, with TPW reaching 1.25" over the plains and 0.75"
over the mountains. With little in the way of forcing, convection
will focus development over the high terrain during the afternoon
and early evening under intense daytime heating. Weak westerly flow
will likely push some storms onto the plains by the late afternoon
and evening. Another factor is a west to east oriented boundary
extending from northern Colorado eastward. This boundary will also
be a focus for convection, but will drift south only very slowly,
maybe only affecting the far northern fringes of the CWA. Greatest
storm coverage, however, will exist over all of the mountain areas.
Given anomalously high TPW and very slow storm motion, heavy rain
and flash flooding potential will exist, particularly over burn
scars. The fresh Springs and Chateau burn scars are of especial
concern, as it will not take much rainfall in a short period to
cause flooding and debris flow. Although we are confident heavy rain
will fall in areas across the mountains and adjacent plains, where
exactly the rain falls remains uncertain considering the mesoscale
nature of this event. Given weak shear and only marginal and skinny
CAPE, severe storms are not anticipated. The high pressure system
begins to shift west slightly during the day Friday, while the feed
of moisture in the low levels remains. Storm coverage on Friday
looks only slightly less than on Thursday, so similar flash flood
concerns remain. It appears less likely that storms will advance
onto the plains Friday as steering flow begins to turn northerly.
Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will only be slightly cooler
behind Wednesday's cold front, with highs reaching the low to mid
90s across the plains and low 80s in Colorado Springs and the high
valleys.

Saturday and Sunday...Models remain in good agreement during the
weekend, centering the upper level high pressure over the
Colorado/Utah border and slowly moving it north. This will lead to
northerly mid/upper level flow shifting to northeasterly by Sunday.
Storm coverage both days looks less and further west than on the
previous couple of days as moisture begins to decrease across the
forecast area given the upper level flow pattern and as low level
flow becomes very weak. The plains will be lucky to see any
precip, with the continental divide likely seeing the best
coverage. Temperatures will begin to warm up during the weekend,
with highs in the mid 90s across the plains and mid to upper 80s
in Colorado Springs and the high valleys.

Monday and Tuesday...Latest model solutions remain in decent
agreement during this period, with the 06Z GFS just coming on board
with the 00z ECMWF. Both models shift the upper high east into the
the midwest, as does the Canadian albeit much quicker, with weak
flow aloft persisting. Flow in the low levels strengthens out of
the south again, increasing moisture across southern Colorado.
This setup would lead to continued precip chances over the
mountains, and temperatures remaining slightly above normal across
the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

Generally VFR most areas today with thunderstorms developing
primarily along the Palmer Divide and far southeast plains during
the afternoon. KCOS stands the best chance for seeing VCTS late
this afternoon and evening...with chances looking too low for
KPUB to warrant mention in the TAF. KALS will remain dry today. A
cold front will move through the southeast plains late this
afternoon and evening bringing a northerly surge through KCOS and
KPUB during the late afternoon and evening. As this cold front
pushes southward and deepens, KALS will see an easterly wind shift
overnight which may push smoke from the Spring fire into the area
after midnight. KCOS and KPUB may see broken CIGS around 4 to 5
thousand feet develop early Thursday morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...LINE
AVIATION...LW
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 12:06 PM MDT, 3 hours 30 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1206 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

COZ058>089-093>099-051815-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1206 PM MDT Wed Jul 4 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
and evening across El Paso county and parts of the far southeast
plains. One or two strong to severe storms will be possible,
particularly along and north of highway 50. Wind gusts up to 60
mph and quarter size hail will be the primary storm threats, along
with lightning and locally heavy rain.

Isolated high based thunderstorms will be possible across the
mountains this afternoon and evening. Localized wind gusts up to
50 mph and lightning will be the primary storm threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorm chances will increase across the forecast area on
Thursday, with the most widespread coverage expected over the
mountains, and more isolated to scattered coverage over the
plains. Thunderstorm chances will decrease slightly on Friday, and
continue to decrease and shift west through the weekend. The
greatest threats from storms over the next few days will be
lightning, wind gusts to 50 mph, and heavy rain. Flash flooding
will be possible, mainly with any storms that develop over burn
scars and urban areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible late this afternoon and evening primarily across northern
El Paso County and the far southeast plains.

50/50

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 3:00 PM MDT, 36 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
300 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

COZ099-042130-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-
300 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BACA COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
MDT...

At 259 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Campo, or 16 miles southeast of Springfield,
moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Walsh, Vilas and Stonington.

LAT...LON 3708 10241 3721 10257 3755 10235 3734 10204
      3732 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 220DEG 21KT 3721 10246

mw
Special weather statement, Jul 4, 3:18 PM MDT, 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
318 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

COZ098-099-042145-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
318 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PROWERS AND NORTH
CENTRAL BACA COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 317 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springfield, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springfield, Two Buttes and Two Buttes Reservoir.

LAT...LON 3734 10265 3753 10283 3795 10251 3768 10210
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 226DEG 28KT 3749 10268

mw
Special weather statement, Jul 4, 3:30 PM MDT, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
330 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

COZ098-042200-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County CO-
330 PM MDT WED JUL 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PROWERS COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM MDT...

At 329 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles south of Holly, or 17 miles south of Coolidge, moving northeast
at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Holly.

LAT...LON 3770 10206 3781 10222 3809 10212 3806 10204
      3772 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 207DEG 16KT 3781 10212

mw

The office that day

Everything else NWS Pueblo, CO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 4, 3:00 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBBaca30 min
Jul 4, 3:18 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBProwers27 min
Jul 4, 3:30 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBProwers30 min
Jul 4, 4:24 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBBaca36 min
Jul 4, 5:14 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementPUBProwers31 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Colorado, 2018Every flash flood watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.