Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2018
Special Weather Statement, NWS Phoenix, AZ
NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 2, 2018, 3:56 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 2, 2018, 3:56 PM MST (22:56 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 2, 2018, 4:45 PM MST
- In force
- 49 min
- Issued by
- NWS Phoenix, AZ
County Gila County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 165 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 234 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -280 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2343 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -8 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -18 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 2, 12:42 PM MST, 3 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 2, 12:42 PM MST, 3 hours 14 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1242 PM MST Thu Aug 2 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will meander across the southwest United States resulting in slightly above average temperatures, but a gradual decrease in thunderstorm chances through the weekend, especially across the lower deserts. More significant moisture will return to the region by early next week as high pressure builds to the northwest. Temperatures will consistently remain a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Visible satellite shows thunderstorm activity gradually increasing area-wide early this afternoon, and continues to reveal a few notable features that may support an increase in thunderstorm potential later this afternoon and evenings. A fast-moving gravity wave is moving across south-central Arizona, and has appeared to already enhance convection across south of the Tucson area. Earlier mid-level cloudiness continues to diminish near the Phoenix area, while convection becomes more widespread across the Rim and White Mountains. The latest hi-res convective allowing guidance continues to indicate a cluster or two of storms developing across Pima County into southwest Maricopa and Pinal Counties later this afternoon. Although steering flow is quite weak, thunderstorms are expected to propagate and develop towards the Phoenix area later this afternoon and evening. With weak large-scale forcing for ascent and new thunderstorm convective development largely dependent on outflow boundaries, coverage is still uncertain. Can't rule out a few strong wind gusts, locally heavy rain, and patchy blowing dust with any thunderstorms/outflows that develop. Farther west, thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain of northern Baja County are approaching western Imperial County in association with a remnant MCV. Additional convection has been noted across JTNP. Blowing dust and locally strong wind gusts will accompany any storms that develop. The upper ridge across the western CONUS will remain dampened through the weekend by a belt of moderate westerlies across the Great Basin, which will keep our temperatures slightly above normal. Within this regime, drier air aloft will also overspread the region this weekend and result in a downtick in thunderstorm activity area-wide. However, there will still be enough moisture around to support a few thunderstorms over southern Gila County. By next week, a seasonably strong upper trough will develop off the Pacific Northwest coast, and correspond with a significant amplification of the upper ridge over the western CONUS. The parent anticyclone will shift northwestward towards the Great Basin while simultaneously strengthening. While this may result in a gradual warming trend for southeast California, it should be far enough removed to keep excessive heat concerns at bay for the time being. During this time period, moisture will return back closer to seasonal normals for August, and bring back daily chances for thunderstorms. This should set up a Type II monsoonal pattern and place south-central Arizona within east-northeast flow aloft. Temperatures should also remain fairly consistent during this period. && .AVIATION... South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL: Based on observational data and preponderance of latest high resolution model output, it looks far more likely that sct thunderstorms will impact the Phoenix metro, and particularly KPHX. The pattern conceptually matches storms forming over SW Maricopa Co generating outflow and blowing dust moving north towards the terminals. Potentially aided by lift from the Estrellas, storms could directly impact KPHX and have added a Tempo group around 02Z. The most likely time frame of IFR conditions due to TSRA and BLDU looks to be 02Z-05Z with showers lingering for a few more hours afterwards. Gusty SSW winds with the outflow would become extremely variable in direction with the passage of any storms, and wake low development could cause a period of gusty north winds washing back into terminal locations. Not convinced coverage will be that extensive throughout the metro and only included VCTS for KIWA and KSDL sites, though BLDU could become a problem at these location as well. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: Thunderstorm chances and associated impacts are the primary aviation concerns this afternoon and evening. Storms were already developing along the Baja spine this morning, and steering flow could drive TSRA into KIPL this afternoon. Chances of directly impacting the terminal location is too small to include in this TAF package, with only a wind shift currently noted. Storm chances at KBLH are much less, and the typical south winds should prevail. Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Sunday through Thursday: Thunderstorm chances will be more relegated to higher terrain areas of Gila County on Sunday as the overall atmospheric moisture content declines. As high pressure redevelops to the northwest, moisture will return to the area and bring an increase in thunderstorm chances to the lower deserts. Otherwise, minimum humidities will remain in a 15-30% range following fair to good overnight recovery. Apart from thunderstorms, winds will be light except for typical afternoon and evening upslope breeziness. Little temperature trend expected during the five day period, with high temperatures remaining a few degrees or so above seasonal normals each day. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...None. && DISCUSSION...Rogers AVIATION...MO FIRE WEATHER...Rogers/CB
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 2, 12:02 PM MST, 3 hours 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1202 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018 AZZ533-021945- Central La Paz AZ- 1202 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LA PAZ COUNTY UNTIL 1245 PM MST... At 1201 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Brenda, or 34 miles southeast of Parker, moving northeast at 15 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Brenda. This includes the following highways... AZ Interstate 10 between mile markers 24 and 38. US Highway 60 between mile markers 31 and 44. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3358 11399 3363 11416 3388 11405 3373 11377 TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 218DEG 14KT 3368 11403 18
Special weather statement, Aug 2, 12:54 PM MST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 1254 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018 AZZ533-022045- Central La Paz AZ- 1254 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LA PAZ COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM MST... At 1254 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Brenda, or 37 miles southeast of Parker, moving northeast at 10 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Brenda. This includes the following highways... AZ Interstate 10 between mile markers 27 and 41. US Highway 60 between mile markers 31 and 46. AZ Route 72 between mile markers 46 and 47. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && LAT...LON 3355 11392 3360 11411 3383 11404 3374 11373 TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 204DEG 7KT 3364 11398 18
Local storm report, Aug 2, 1:46 PM MST, 2 hours 10 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
146 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM HAIL BRENDA 33.68N 113.96W
08/02/2018 E0.88 INCH LA PAZ AZ PUBLIC
HAIL REPORTED AT RV REPAIR FACILITY IN
BRENDA. TIME ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR.
&&
KWSpecial weather statement, Aug 2, 3:36 PM MST, 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 336 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018 AZZ558-560-562-022315- San Carlos AZ-Globe/Miami AZ-Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ- 336 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM MST... At 336 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near Cutter, or near Globe, moving east at 10 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Globe and Cutter. This includes the following highways... US Highway 60 between mile markers 252 and 253. AZ Route 70 between mile markers 253 and 263. AZ Route 77 between mile markers 167 and 170. LAT...LON 3324 11063 3334 11079 3341 11076 3340 11056 TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 286DEG 9KT 3336 11071 Hernandez
Special weather statement, Aug 2, 3:52 PM MST, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
352 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018
AZZ556-558-022330-
Tonto Basin AZ-Pinal/Superstition Mountains AZ-
352 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM MST...
At 352 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tonto National Monument, or 8 miles southeast of Roosevelt, moving
northeast at 5 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Tonto National Monument.
This includes AZ Route 188 between mile markers 228 and 240.
LAT...LON 3358 11090 3355 11090 3355 11091 3354 11106
3364 11112 3374 11098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 245DEG 6KT 3362 11100
HernandezSpecial weather statement, Aug 2, 3:56 PM MST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 356 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018 AZZ563-022345- Southeast Gila County AZ- 356 PM MST THU AUG 2 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILA COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM MST... At 355 PM MST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of Hilltop, or 20 miles northeast of Globe, moving east at 15 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of Gila County. This includes US Highway 60 between mile markers 269 and 284. LAT...LON 3360 11068 3369 11068 3374 11044 3352 11044 TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 272DEG 14KT 3364 11057 Hernandez
The office that day
Everything else NWS Phoenix, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 5:09 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | PSR | Gila | 51 min |
| Aug 1, 5:15 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Gila | 45 min |
| Aug 1, 5:32 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | PSR | Gila | 3 hr |
| Aug 1, 5:53 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | PSR | 37 min | |
| Aug 1, 6:20 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | PSR | Gila | 25 min |
| Aug 1, 6:27 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | Gila | 33 min |
| Aug 1, 7:01 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | PSR | Gila | 3 hr |
| Aug 1, 8:32 PM MST | Dust Storm Advisory | PSR | Maricopa, Pinal | 58 min |
| Aug 2, 12:02 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | PSR | La Paz | 43 min |
| Aug 2, 12:30 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | La Paz | 30 min |
| Aug 2, 12:51 PM MST | Areal Flood Advisory | PSR | La Paz | 114 min |
| Aug 2, 12:54 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | PSR | La Paz | 51 min |
| Aug 2, 1:00 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PSR | La Paz | 30 min |
| Aug 2, 1:04 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | PSR | La Paz | 116 min |
| Aug 2, 3:36 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | PSR | Gila | 39 min |
| Aug 2, 3:52 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | PSR | Gila | 38 min |
| Aug 2, 4:54 PM MST | Special Weather Statement | PSR | Maricopa | 51 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2018Every special weather statement in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.