Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Phoenix, AZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
305 PM MST Mon Jul 9 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Monsoon moisture levels will continue to remain high enough this
week to bring daily thunderstorm chances to most of the region.
An upper level trough moving through today and early Tuesday should
enhance monsoon activity creating better chances for more widespread
storms than a typical monsoon day. Temperatures will continue to
trend downward through the middle of the week and then level off a
few degrees below normals.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar shows showers and thunderstorms that have developed
southeast and east of the Phoenix from Pinal cty. to S. Gila county
with more extensive storm development taking place in south central
and northern Arizona. The very strong Monsoon high pressure system
remains in place over the central Rockies. It is in an excellent
position to continue to provide moist easterly flow from the Gulf of
Mexico and Mexico into the Desert Southwest via it's attendant south
stream easterly jet. A pronounced upper level low and inverted
trough seen in water vapor imagery over east AZ with a dry slot
wrapping into is progged to move over our region this afternoon and
evening  where it will expand and dramatically decelerate.

The strong easterly wave will have plenty of moisture to work with
as it moves into a well conditioned Monsoon environment. Boundary
layer dewpoint temperatures remain very high with 60s and 70s F
being reported at the surface and 12-20C being reported through 925
and 850mb. Amidst significant mid level moisture advection from the
southeast, strong sounding and model CAPE of up to 1500-2000 j/kg.,
and sfc-6km shear of 30-35kt expect a good chance of a mixed bag of
Monsoon threats from this afternoon through tonight. This includes
the threat of severe thunderstorm winds, flash flooding and dense
blowing dust. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
gusts near 60mph and peak rainfall rates over 4in./hr as well as the
potential for hail. High-res models indicate the prime threat areas
to be from Phoenix westward to the California border. Expect a
series of strong easterly outflows to span our forecast area from
north to south and sweep from Maricopa and Pinal counties all the
way to southeast CA.

Tuesday looks to be a bit drier and more of a down day, however
Tuesday night and Wednesday morning are shaping up to be another
fairly active Monsoon period.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL:
Storm activity over Pinal, Gila, and Yavapai Counties will
converge over Maricopa County - including metro Phoenix - between
22Z- 00Z. Storms then track westward. Expect large swaths of
strong surface winds from thunderstorm outflow. The winds will
also cause areas of reduced visibility in blowing dust. The
stronger storms will produce brief heavy rain and small hail.
Anticipate much quieter conditions over metro Phoenix beginning by
03Z. However, renewed shower development is anticipated overnight
but not with very strong storms.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Strong storms are expected to move out of Yavapai and Maricopa
Counties and into southwest Arizona beginning by about 23Z. Storms
are anticipated to track westward and weaken as they move west of
the Lower Colorado River Valley. However, large swaths of strong
winds and blowing dust are possible throughout the area.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday through Monday:
An active Monsoon pattern continues the rest of the week into
early next week. As usual, south-central AZ will have better
chances than areas west of there. Minimum humidities will remain
above 15% with good overnight recovery. Apart from thunderstorm
activity, winds will generally be light.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Sawtelle
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
758 PM MST MON JUL 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     DUST STORM       2 WSW TACNA             32.68N 113.98W
07/09/2018                   YUMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            200 YD VISIBILITY IN DENSE BLOWING DUST.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
759 PM MST MON JUL 9 2018

AZZ530>532-535-536-CAZ569-100345-
Gila River Valley AZ-Southeast Yuma County AZ-Kofa AZ-
Parker Valley AZ-Yuma AZ-Palo Verde Valley CA-
759 PM MST MON JUL 9 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 758 PM MST/758 PM PDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 17 miles southwest of Kofa
Wildlife Refuge to 11 miles south of Mohawk. Movement was west at 50
mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Martinez Lake, Fortuna Foothills, Wellton, Blaisdell, Tacna, Tyson,
Kinter, Ligurta, Mohawk and Roll.

This includes the following highways...
AZ Interstate 8 between mile markers 11 and 60.
AZ Route 95 between mile markers 32 and 64.

LAT...LON 3281 11452 3282 11450 3284 11452 3305 11459
      3318 11387 3260 11356 3243 11440
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 072DEG 42KT 3325 11414 3257 11377

Hernandez

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
808 PM MST MON JUL 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      7 SW PHOENIX            33.38N 112.15W
07/09/2018                   MARICOPA           AZ   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FLOODED ROADWAYS AROUND 43RD AVE AND
            BASELINE THROUGH DOBBINS RD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
821 PM MST MON JUL 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE PEORIA            33.57N 112.22W
07/09/2018                   MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN AND ROOF SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
831 PM MST MON JUL 9 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW CITRUS PARK       33.57N 112.46W
07/09/2018                   MARICOPA           AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ROOF TILES BLOWN OFF.

&&