Special Weather Statement, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
127 PM MDT Fri Aug 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday.
Scattered thunderstorms will occur this evening with the potential
some may produce severe winds in excess of 60 mph or large hail.
Red Flag warnings remain in effect as well. Activity will
dissipate west to east later tonight and Saturday with all
activity Saturday expected in the far east near the Wyoming border
in the mountains. Dry conditions are expected under upper ridge
Sunday.  Expect cooler conditions Saturday and Sunday behind the
cold frontal passage today. Thunderstorms will return Monday as
moisture returns on southwest flow aloft.
GK

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.
Kept slight chances of thunderstorms mainly in mountains Tuesday
and Wednesday in southwest flow then dry conditions Thursday and
Friday. Above normal high temperatures are expected to continue
through next week.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to persist through the TAF
period despite an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Midday
thunderstorm activity over southwestern Idaho will expand in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon as the main disturbance
pushes through the Great Basin. Storms could generally impact
KBYI/KSUN by about 21z spreading northeast to KPIH/KIDA before 00z.
Tried to focus TEMPOs for the expected timeframe, but some
adjustments may be necessary. The main thunderstorm impact will be
gusty and erratic winds generally up to 30-40kts, but can't rule out
higher gusts near strong thunderstorms.

Outside of thunderstorms, surface flow will generally organize to
out of the southwest near 10kts. Occasional gusts higher are
possible, but will not be common outside of the aforementioned
thunderstorm activity.

Convective activity drops off significantly overnight, but shower
potential could carry into Saturday morning, especially for
KDIJ/KIDA.

TAX

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Ongoing thunderstorm activity will continue through
the evening and into the early overnight period focused ahead of the
deep upper-level trough. Strong thunderstorm growth will tap drier
air aloft and could produce strong to severe downdrafts reaching 40+
mph. The scattered nature of these storms, frequent lightning
development and the propensity to produce strong outflow winds will
produce dangerous fire weather conditions this evening. The Red Flag
Warning will continue for most fire weather zones, save for zone
411.

Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will linger into the
overnight/early Saturday period, but coverage and intensity should
taper down drastically. Conditions will generally improve into the
weekend as cooler temperatures and increased humidity are left in
the wake of the exiting system.

The upper ridge begins to build into the region for the latter part
of the weekend despite the next landfalling trough poised to move
into the region Monday. Forecast uncertainty grows early to middle
of next week as the low retrogrades back over coastal Washington.
Despite questions in timing and favored location of development, a
marked increase in southerly moisture will fuel additional rounds of
thunderstorm development. All told potential exists for another
round of critical days early to mid next week.

TAX

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-413-422-
425-427-475-476.

&&

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