River Flood Warning 14, NWS Pocatello, ID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
404 AM MDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday. Currently there is an upper
level low centered over Northern Nevada and Northern Utah. Models
continue to show this low to track East Northeast today streaming
moisture into our area. This system will bring mostly cooler
temperatures and widespread rain, which will bring additional
cloud cover likely limiting thunderstorms to just isolated
coverage. With these thunderstorms expect small hail, gusty winds,
lightning and locally heavy rain. Rainfall amounts continue to be
around 0.25, but some areas area could see higher amounts to
around 0.50 inch. By Monday the low does weaken and move east over
Wyoming. Expect lingering precipitation, particularly in the
afternoon. Look for amounts around 0.10 to 0.30, especially in the
mountains. Tuesday weak high pressure starts to build in from the
west. Expect afternoon thunderstorms mainly over our Eastern
areas. Expect temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal today and
around 5 degrees below normal on Memorial Day and then rising
slightly to around normal if not slightly above normal by
Tuesday. Wyatt

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through next Saturday.  Another system
moves through the area Wednesday through Friday night bringing
moderate precipitation, particularly for our northern areas. The
GFS model brings in drier conditions by early Saturday morning
and the ECMWF model brings drier conditions by Saturday afternoon.
Both models show dry conditions Sunday. Look for slightly above
normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday before dropping below
normal on Friday and to a lesser degree on Saturday. Sunday expect
near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Wyatt

&&

.AVIATION...An upper low spins over UT/NV this morning, and will
draw moisture in from the southeast. Expect to see widespread
precipitation today with isolated afternoon thunderstorms. VFR
conditions should prevail, but some of the heavier rainshowers may
bring lower ceiling and/or visibility. Hinsberger

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Widespread precipitation is expected through Monday
afternoon while an upper low spins over NV/UT. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon with peak heating.
Strong wind gusts are possible around the storms. Extensive cloud
cover and precipitation will keep humidity high throughout the day.
Drier conditions are expected to move into the area on Tuesday as a
transient ridge advances through Idaho, and the upper low lifts out
of UT. Models continue to show good agreement on a cold front
pushing through the region on Wednesday. There is a good chance this
front may stall over Idaho giving us more rainfall through Saturday.
Hinsberger

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Several area streams and rivers are experiencing high
flows and minor flooding. Recent rainfall is aggravating the
situation in some areas.  Rainfall amounts across most of central
and east Idaho today and this evening will generally be in the
0.25 to 0.50 inch range with locally heavier amounts. Additional
rainfall is possible Monday with another 0.25 inches possible with
locally heavier amounts possible, especially across the Central
Idaho mountains. Some area rivers may rise quickly into early next
week. Tributaries along the Big Wood, Big Lost, Teton River, and
lower Henrys Fork are especially vulnerable. All these rivers will
likely peak in the next day or two before gradually dropping off
by the end of the week into the weekend. Valle/Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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