Red Flag Warning 20, NWS Pocatello, ID

689 
WWUS85 KPIH 300141
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
741 PM MDT Sat Sep 29 2018


IDZ413-427-300245-
/O.CAN.KPIH.FW.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180930T0300Z/
Caribou Range/Caribou NF-
Goose Creek and Raft River Valley/Southern Sawtooth NF/Twin Falls
BLM south of the Snake River-
741 PM MDT Sat Sep 29 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 413 AND 427...

The National Weather Service in Pocatello has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning.

As of 740 PM, weather observations indicated relative humidity
creeping up above 15 percent and winds largely decreasing. 

$$

TAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
302 AM MDT Sat Sep 29 2018

.DISCUSSION...The unseasonably warm, dry conditions will be
experienced for one more day across the region today. By this
Evening, a weakening area of Low Pressure will drift into Oregon
and across the Central Mountains on Sunday. In response, a
Warm Front will form near the Divide/Montana border region tonight
and will foster the development of isolated Showers and
Thunderstorms in the vicinity of the Divide and Island Park
region. This activity should expand across the Central Mountains
through the day with periods of Shower and Thunderstorm activity
persisting along the Divide before coming to an end Sunday night.

After dry, mild conditions Monday, a significant change will begin
on Tuesday as the remnants of Hurricane Rosa begin to lift into
the Great Basin. At the same time, an area of Low Pressure and
separate trough will approach the West Coast, with a second
trough approaching the coast Wednesday into Thursday. Models are
understandably continuing to struggle resolving these complex
interactions, which lends to a lack of confidence in the
anticipated details. Nonetheless, there are some trends that
continue to emerge. Those include the emergence of Rain associated
with Rosa across the Bear Lake area by Tuesday morning with this
Rain extending across much of the Wyoming border and Eastern
Highlands region by Afternoon, largely remaining south and east of
the Interstate corridor. Locally heavy Rain is becoming
increasingly likely in the Bear Lake region on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, a southern Canadian trough will sweep much of Rosa's
moisture eastward while simultaneously promoting some shower
activity across the Central Mountains.

After Wednesday, forecaster confidence erodes as the ECMWF, which
maintains an area of low pressure off of the southern California
coast through Wednesday, begins to infuse decent Rainfall into SE
Idaho by late in the day. In contrast the GFS is mainly dry
Wednesday into early Thursday. Models begin to converge again on
Thursday as the final trough swings inland, interacting with
lingering moisture to produce widespread Showers across our area
for Thursday. This trough will likely usher in a significant
cooldown. Meantime, Temperatures should cool to near seasonal
averages. AD/Valle

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions to continue over the next 24 hours. Could
see a few afternoon wind gusts to around 20 kts around locations
such as PIH and IDA.

Valle

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and breezy conditions possible once again
today. Humidity and wind gusts will be marginally critical today
across southeast Idaho. A weak low pressure system will arrive on
Sunday producing a few showers and thunderstorms across the central
Idaho mountains. Breezy conditions will remain possible across much
of the region on Sunday. However humidity is not expected to be
critical on Sunday.

Valle

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&