Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Pocatello, ID

523 
WWUS85 KPIH 101918
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
118 PM MDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR 
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO FIRE 
WEATHER ZONE 476...

IDZ476-110300-
/O.CON.KPIH.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180711T0300Z/
Lemhi and Lost River Range/Challis NF-
118 PM MDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES FOR SOUTHEAST IDAHO
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 476...

* AFFECTED AREA...Fire weather zone 476.

* WIND...West to Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30
  mph at lower elevations. Localized gusts near 35 mph are 
  possible especially mid and upper slopes. 

* HUMIDITY...12 to 16 percent.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Will be elevations below 6500 feet in the 
  Lemhi and Birch Creek Valley. 

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A red flag warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly based on these criteria
for Southeastern Idaho:

 * Relative humidity at or below 15 percent and wind gusts of at
least 25 mph in the mountains, or 30 mph in the Snake Plain.

 * Thunderstorm coverage of 25 percent, without specific rainfall
criteria.

 * Other high impact evens deemed critical by the National
Weather Service and area fire management agencies.

&&

$$

784 
WWUS85 KPIH 110320
RFWPIH

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
920 PM MDT Tue Jul 10 2018


IDZ476-110430-
/O.EXP.KPIH.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180711T0300Z/
Lemhi and Lost River Range/Challis NF-
920 PM MDT Tue Jul 10 2018

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 476...

Winds have died down and humidity has risen above 15 percent.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
249 AM MDT Tue Jul 10 2018

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will make its way through Idaho today
while a mid-level trough lifts to the Idaho Panhandle. While a
significant portion of the front will be dry, models are showing
the potential for storms triggering along the front as we approach
max heating. Have included gusty wind mention in forecast for this
afternoon. Would expect bulk shear to be strongest closer to the
mid-level speed max, which favors best organized storms towards
Island Park. Most of the storms should clear the state by this
evening. Temperatures should begin to cool a bit today and
tomorrow while monsoon moisture gets pushed to the south and east
along the front. The rest of the work week will be dry with
temperatures increasing again Thursday and Friday. An upper trough
will push through again on Saturday, but long-term models bring
little precip with it. Hinsberger

&&

.AVIATION...Some scattered rain showers this morning around KBYI,
KPIH, and KIDA from high based clouds above 12000 FT AGL. Cold front
moving through the Idaho Panhandle today will push some of this
moisture east into Wyoming. TAF sites KPIH and KIDA may well be
clear of the showers before thunderstorms try to develop this
afternoon. Think the GFS has the best handle on the cloud cover. Dry
westerly winds prevail on Wednesday. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered rain showers and very isolated
thunderstorms linger this morning across the southern Sawtooth and
Caribou-Targhee Forest areas from pretty high based clouds. Clouds
are mostly above 12000 feet above ground level, aviation
observations are not reporting any clouds. Estimate the cold front
and winds shifting to W-NW at Shoup about 0800 to 0900 this morning;
and winds shift at Leadore about 1000-1200 hours. Northwest winds
expected to prevail in the Arco Desert overnight. Wind gusts of 25
mph combined with humidity at or below 15 percent are expected in
Zone 476 below 6500 feet. Red Flag issued for that area. For the
Arco Desert and Middle Snake River Valley, expect humidity to
average 16 percent with wind gust below 30 mph. Marginal, but below
critical levels. Clouds and showers should be east of Idaho Falls
and Pocatello by 1500 and east of the state by 2100, save perhaps a
stray shower near Holbrook-Malad area. Dry westerlies prevail
Wednesday through Friday. Front expected on Saturday for some breezy
winds and possibly some isolated showers or thunderstorms on the
Eastern Highlands and along the ID/NV/UT border area. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
IDZ476.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1122 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2018

IDZ023-100545-
Caribou Highlands ID-
1122 PM MDT MON JUL 9 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1122 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McCammon, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
McCammon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4262 11226 4265 11235 4274 11223 4268 11216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 225DEG 13KT 4270 11223

RS