Winter Weather Advisory 3, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

985 
WWUS41 KPHI 120857
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
357 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018



PAZ054-055-122100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.180113T0600Z-180113T1500Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
357 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. The ice will result in
  difficult travel conditions. Total ice accumulations of one
  tenth to two tenths of an inch are expected. Sleet and snow
  accumulations are expected to be less than an inch.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times and temperatures falling sharply from the mid 40s at
  midnight to the mid 20s by 6 AM Saturday on gusty north to 
  northwest winds..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-122100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.180113T0900Z-180113T1500Z/
Sussex-Warren-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Reading, Allentown, 
Bethlehem, and Easton
357 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. The ice will result in 
  difficult travel conditions. Total ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central 
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall sharply near 50 at
  midnight to around 30 at 7 am Saturday with icing developing
  rapidly toward daybreak Saturday on gusty north to northwest
  winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

069 
WWUS41 KPHI 121452
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
952 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018


PAZ054-055-130300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.180113T0600Z-180113T1500Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
952 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. The ice will result in 
  difficult travel conditions. Total ice accumulations of one 
  tenth to two tenths of an inch are expected. Sleet and snow 
  accumulations are expected to be less than an inch.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at 
  times and temperatures falling sharply from the mid 40s at 
  midnight to the mid 20s by 6 AM Saturday on gusty north to 
  northwest winds..

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-130300-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.180113T0900Z-180113T1500Z/
Sussex-Warren-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Reading, Allentown, 
Bethlehem, and Easton
952 AM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. The ice will result in 
  difficult travel conditions. Total ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central 
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall sharply near 50 at 
  midnight to around 30 at 7 am Saturday with icing developing 
  rapidly toward daybreak Saturday on gusty north to northwest 
  winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

657 
WWUS41 KPHI 122027
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
327 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018


PAZ054-055-130830-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.180113T0600Z-180113T1500Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
327 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain mixed with sleet and snow expected. The ice
  will result in difficult travel conditions. Total ice
  accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch are
  expected. Sleet and snow accumulations are expected to be less 
  than an inch.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times and temperatures falling sharply from the mid 40s at
  midnight to the low 20s by 6 AM Saturday on gusty north to
  northwest winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-130830-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.180113T0900Z-180113T1500Z/
Sussex-Warren-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Reading, Allentown, 
Bethlehem, and Easton
327 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. The ice will result in 
  difficult travel conditions. Total ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central 
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall sharply from the 50s
  at midnight to around 30 at 7 am Saturday with icing developing
  rapidly toward daybreak Saturday on gusty north to northwest 
  winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

245 
WWUS41 KPHI 130225
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
925 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018


PAZ054-055-131430-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.180113T0600Z-180113T1500Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
925 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. The ice will result in difficult
  travel conditions. Total ice accumulations of around one tenth
  of an inch are expected with minor snow accumulations as well. 

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
  times and temperatures falling sharply from the mid 40s at
  midnight to the low 20s by 6 AM Saturday on gusty north to
  northwest winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-131430-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.180113T0900Z-180113T1500Z/
Sussex-Warren-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Reading, Allentown, 
Bethlehem, and Easton
925 PM EST Fri Jan 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. The ice will result in very
  slippery conditions on sidewalks, roads and bridges. Total ice
  accumulations are expected to be under a tenth of an inch. 

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central 
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will fall sharply from the 50s
  at midnight to around 30 at 7 am Saturday with icing developing
  rapidly toward daybreak Saturday on gusty north to northwest
  winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

167 
WWUS41 KPHI 130839
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
339 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

PAZ054-055-131500-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180113T1500Z/
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
339 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain occurring. The ice will result in difficult
  travel conditions. Total ice accumulations of around one tenth
  of an inch are expected with minor snow accumulations as well.

* WHERE...Carbon and Monroe counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for some reduced visibilities
  and a continuation of rapidly falling temperatures. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

NJZ001-007-PAZ060>062-131500-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.180113T0900Z-180113T1500Z/
Sussex-Warren-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Reading, Allentown, 
Bethlehem, and Easton
339 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. The ice will result in very
  slippery conditions on sidewalks, roads and bridges. Total ice
  accumulations are expected to be under a tenth of an inch. 

* WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central 
  Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will continue to fall sharply
  into the 30s with icing developing rapidly toward daybreak 
  Saturday on gusty north to northwest winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads.
Slow down and use caution while driving. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

644 
WWUS41 KPHI 131131
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
631 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-131245-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-180113T1500Z/
Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Jim Thorpe, 
Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton
631 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Significant precipitation has ended across the area. Scattered
snow showers could occur through the morning. A few icy spots are
possible. Travel with caution this morning. 

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
343 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly move across the area Friday night into
Saturday morning as an area of low pressure moves along the
boundary as well. High pressure builds across the east coast
Saturday night through Monday. An area of low pressure is
forecast to approach the area from the west on Tuesday, then may
linger across the northeast through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Near record warmth has occurred today at Georgetown today. 66
was their high at 152PM, 1F shy of record. ACY set a new record
at 106PM 62F. Surprised how warm it got in WWD-lower 60s, next
to the cold DE Bay.

We have further delayed the start of the waa rain but we still
think that most of our area will have measurable on-going by
dawn Friday. We have isolated thunder in the fcst around 09z
over the southern two thirds of the fcst area. Most wont see
thunder but the instability burst implies rain to be briefly
heavy. Temps should rise into the lower 60s along and east of
the I95 corridor except along the chill waters of DE Bay. This
is warmer than MOS. It also implies that we will likely set
numerous record warm low temps for Friday (just like a year
ago). Again, how things transpire this evening (briefly
radiating after sundown in NJ) should even out as winds increase
late at night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Record warmth expected in parts of our area with periods of
heavy rain, causing periods of poor drainage street flooding
(several FLSPHI issuances expected) and elevated stream flows
where melting and runoff coincide. No flood watch since we think
there wont be enough snowmelt runoff and rainfall combined to
threaten small stream flooding and that the ice while it may
start moving, wont be enough to cause any major backup of stream
flow. Widespread .7 to 1.3 inches of rain anticipated Friday
during the day. Thunder is possible and we have it as isolated
in the grids. No MLCape attm for svr but we'll have a wind advy
posted to cover this eventuality as well. As far as wind advy
criteria...Not an overly strong flow at 925-850 but the bl winds
are near 27 kt for a time Friday and the hrrrx and hrrre were
fcstg 40 kt gusts. Temps in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main concern for the long term is periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall, with icing across northern New Jersey and
northeastern Pennsylvania Friday night into early Saturday
morning. There is also a potential for accumulating snowfall
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week as well.

On Friday night, a cold front will be approaching the area from
the west as an area of low pressure develops and moves along
the boundary as well. An initial short wave will be exiting the
area during the evening hours, and there will likely be a dry
period for many areas during the evening and early overnight
hours. During this dry period, there could end up being some
patchy fog across the area as there remain plenty of moisture
and a brief period of stable low level air.

However, this will change through the remainder of the
overnight and pre daybreak hours Saturday as the cold front
makes its progression through the area. As the front moves
through, the surface low pressure will be moving along the front
across the area while a rather potent short wave/vorticity
impulse moves across the area as well. This will all lead to
enhanced lift across the area as moisture remains in place with
PW values 1.00-1.50 inches. We expect periods of moderate to
heavy rain to develop and move across the area during the
overnight hours and pre daybreak/early morning Saturday. Also,
as this rain is moving across the area and the cold front and
low pressure cross the area, colder air will be moving in on the
back side of the low. This is expected to lead to a period of
freezing rain and/or sleet to portions of northern New Jersey
and northeastern Pennsylvania after midnight Friday and through
daybreak Saturday. Portions of the Poconos and northwest New
Jersey could see a tenth to a quarter of an inch of freezing
rain, as well as sleet accumulation. A little farther south
across other parts of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New
Jersey, some sleet accumulation as well as up to a tenth of an
inch of freezing rain may occur. Therefore we have issued a
Winter Weather Advisory for portions of northeast Pennsylvania
and northwestern New Jersey. Farther south across southeast
Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland, we
expect the precipitation to remain all rain except possible a
brief period of wintry mix for the northwest suburbs of
Philadelphia and central/northern New Jersey. Confidence was not
high enough in these areas to issue an advisory at this time,
but we will reassess this in later shifts.

As the precipitation ends temperatures behind the cold front
will be dropping quite significantly, especially later in the
day Saturday and Saturday night. So any remaining water on
roadways, driveways, sidewalks, and other surfaces will freeze.
Also, as temperatures decline, winds will elevate behind the
cold front during the day Saturday and Saturday night, leading
to lowering wind chill values. While most places are not
expected to reach Wind Chill Advisory levels, portions of
northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey are expected to
have wind chills drop below zero later Saturday into Saturday
night.

Sunday through Monday will be dry and cold as high pressure
builds from our west across the northeast. While the weather
remains dry Sunday through Monday, winds will remain breezy.
This will keep wind chills low across the are, although no one
is forecast to reach advisory levels at this time.

For Monday night into Tuesday, and area of low pressure will be
moving out of the Ohio River Valley and/or Great Lakes region
and toward our area. This will bring another chance for wintry
precipitation across the area, but this all is expected to be
snow as temperatures will be well cold enough for snow. So there
is the potential for a couple of inches of snow across portions
of the area Monday night-Tuesday of next week.

The low is forecast to linger across the northeast through the
middle of next week, which will keep cool and breezy conditions
across the area. Most of the area is not expected to experience
any snow, with possible the exceptions of the Poconos which may
ecperience some snow flurries or showers in the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Remainder of this afternoon...VFR cigs except MVFR CIGS vcnty
KRDG KABE. Light mostly south wind.

Tonight...Low ceilings, either MVFR or IFR, are expected to
develop overnight. Additionally, visibility restrictions in fog
and/or rain are possible at all TAF sites after 06Z. Another
concern will be the potential for low level wind shear. While
surface winds will remain southeasterly (starting at less than
10kt but increasing late tonight), a low level southwesterly jet
is expected to move east with wind speeds of 40 to 50 kt
likely. LLWS will likely develop first over KABE and KRDG after
00Z, then develop over the rest of the TAF sites 03Z or later
(as the low level jet moves further northeast).

Friday...MVFR variable IFR conditions, to even brief LIFR
conditions due to low clouds, fog and periods of rain. Most of
the IFR and LIFR conditions should occur at KRDG and KABE. Gusty
south wind briefly 28-38 kt vcnty KPHL KILG KTTN and around 40
kt vcnty in parts of DE.

Outlook...
Friday night...IFR with periods of rain. Freezing rain and
sleet developing across northern New Jersey and northeast
Pennsylvania. High confidence on IFR conditions and
precipitation occurrence, moderate to high confidence on
precipitation type.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR in the morning with a chance of mixed
precipitation across northern New Jersey and northeast
Pennsylvania, and a chance of rain for the remainder of the
area. Conditions improving to VFR and precipitation ending
through the morning hours into the afternoon. Gusty northwest
winds 20-25 knots. Moderate to high confidence.

Saturday night...Generally VFR with gusty northwest winds 15-20
knots. High confidence.

Sunday-Monday...Generally VFR. High confidence.

Monday night-Tuesday...Snow developing overnight Monday into
Tuesday with conditions lowering to IFR. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA coming late tonight and Friday. Isolated gusts near 35 kt
possible but cold water in the 30s, should limit this possibility.
However, don't be surprised if we issue a couple of short fuse
Special Marine Warnings, especially if thunder develops or
there is a well defined short line of heavy showers.

Showery rains and patchy fog should result in visibility
restrictions on Friday. Confidence is above average.

In addition, significant ice melting and breakup on bays and along
the coast will continue through this time. Temperatures are expected
to stay above freezing through the overnight period.

Outlook...
Friday night...Small Craft Advisory. High confidence.

Saturday-Saturday night...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to
continue. Light freezing spray across the waters, may be
moderate at times on Delaware Bay. Moderate to high confidence.

Sunday...Winds expected to fall below advisory levels, although
seas may remain around 5 feet into the day. Light freezing
spray across the waters, may be moderate at times on Delaware
Bay. Moderate to high confidence.

Sunday night-Tuesday...Conditions likely to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through Tuesday afternoon. Light freezing spray
across the waters. Moderate to high confidence.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall...with the one to two inches of rainfall expected, many
of our 48 hydrological forecast points will see rises in the 2 to
6 foot range. These rises will remain well within bankful.

Outside of our 48 forecast points, poor drainage or low-lying
flooding is possible tomorrow and tomorrow night.

River ice...The nearly 2 weeks straight of sub-freezing temperatures
has created a build up ice on local rivers and streams. We wanted to
address the ice and the prospects of ice jams.

Unfortunately, neither the formation or dissipation of an ice jam
can be predicted with certainty, although we know what can influence
them. The best approach is awareness and to take notice of day to
day changes on a river or stream of concern.

Ice jams can develop near river bends, near the confluence of
tributaries, where slope changes, and around bridges. Solid ice
cover is not an ice jam. There needs to be a restriction with flow.
Even with solid ice cover, water can flow freely under the ice.

A combination of well above normal temperatures for several days,
heavy rainfall, and additional runoff from snowmelt is a worst case
scenario outside of the actual hydrology. Results and impacts will
be very different if rivers and streams were running high or
were above normal or as they are now, running low or below normal.
The more capacity a channel has, the more that channel can
withstand rises (absorb the water within bankful).

For the Thursday night through Saturday timeframe, one to two inches
of rainfall is predicted across the region. Daytime temperatures are
expected to peak in the 50s or 60s for a couple of days. Those two
factors alone will begin to move some ice or at least begin the
melting process.

But, while it's been cold, there hasn't been much water
equivalent snow. Across our inland basins, there is really only
1 to 5 inches on the ground where there is snow. Snow water
equivalent or SWE, is no more than an 1/2 inch. In addition,
our river levels are running below normal for this time year. In
many cases, on the Delaware for instance, levels are 1/4 bankfull
or less. So there is a lot of capacity within banks to withstand
the volume of increased runoff rises.

As mentioned, for the next several days, awareness is the best
approach. The high impact ice jams we tend to hear about are those
that break and cause flash flooding downstream of a broken jam.
Again, thanks to the high capacity of channel we have, due to
low flows, and the width of the channel itself (e.g. Delaware,
Passaic, Raritan, Schuylkill), the threat of flash flooding is
very low.

What has been more common in our Hydrologic Service Area (HSA),
is water building up behind a restriction or ice jam. Again,
while this cannot be precisely forecast, the process is a slow
one. It could take a day or days for water to build up behind a
jam, rather than hours. Preparation time is usually available.

Outside of our mainstem rivers, where the threat of flash flooding
is minimal, the flash flood threat (or flood threat) can increase
for smaller creeks or streams due to less available volume in the
channel. But on the flip-side, there is usually less water in these
tributaries to cause widespread impacts.

Temperatures get cold once again later in the weekend through next
week and will temporarily lessen the chance for any ice movement.

&&

.CLIMATE...
New record today at ACY  62F at 106PM.
Near record at GED 66.

For Friday, January 12th:

Location   Record High Temp    Record Warm Minimum Temp
--------   ----------------    ------------------------

ACY          67 in 2017               49 in 2017

PHL          72 in 1890               49 in 2017

ILG          68 in 2017               46 in 2017

ABE          60 in 1932               43 in 2017

TTN          68 in 1890               47 in 2017

GED          70 in 1975               N/A

RDG          63 in 2017               47 in 2017

MPO          56 in 1975               N/A

             Record Daily Rainfall
Location   (values under 1.8 inches)
--------   -------------------------

RDG              1.70 in 1915

ACY              1.19 in 1915

ILG              1.26 in 1900

GED              1.61 in 1991

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Pottstown Temp conts ots, ufn. We'll try to keep everyone
posted.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     PAZ060>062.
     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to noon EST Friday for PAZ070-071.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     NJZ001-007.
     Wind Advisory from 5 AM to noon EST Friday for NJZ013-017>020-
     022-027.
DE...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to noon EST Friday for DEZ001>003.
MD...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to noon EST Friday for MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EST
     Saturday for ANZ431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Friday
     for ANZ430.

&&

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Robertson
Marine...Drag/Robertson
Hydrology...
Climate...
Equipment...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1035 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-121545-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
1035 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey, east
central Pennsylvania and northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rain is anticipated to change to a period of freezing rain and/or
sleet later Friday night and Saturday morning before ending. This
would result in hazardous conditions, especially in the southern
Poconos to far northwestern New Jersey as temperatures plunge. There
remains some uncertainty however on how fast the low-level cold air
moves in.

Wind chills are forecast to drop to near 15 below zero Saturday
night and early Sunday morning for portions of the southern Poconos.

Some accumulating snow is possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ009-010-PAZ101-103-105-121545-
Hunterdon-Somerset-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
1035 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey,
northwest New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Rain may change to some freezing rain or sleet before ending Saturday
morning. If this occurs as temperatures quickly drop would result in
slippery conditions.

Some accumulating snow is possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ012>027-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-
121545-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-
Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
1035 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast
Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Southerly winds may gust to 45 MPH in a few locations between 6 AM
and 2 PM. Loose items will be the move.

Some accumulating snow is possible on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-121545-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1035 AM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.