Winter Weather Advisory 14, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

970 
WWUS41 KPHI 121350
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
950 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

NJZ001-007-PAZ055-062-130200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.180312T2100Z-180313T1400Z/
Sussex-Warren-Monroe-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Stroudsburg, 
Bethlehem, and Easton
950 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex and Warren counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Monroe and Northampton counties.

* WHEN...Light snow develops this afternoon, then becomes heavier
  later this evening and overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions,
  especially untreated surfaces, including during the Tuesday 
  morning commute. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ008>010-012>015-020-026-130200-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.180313T0000Z-180313T1400Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, 
New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Jackson, 
and Long Beach Island
950 AM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and eastern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Light rain or a mix of rain and snow develops this 
  afternoon, then becomes all snow later this evening and 
  overnight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions,
  especially untreated surfaces, including during the Tuesday
  morning commute. Be prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

392 
WWUS41 KPHI 121948
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
348 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

NJZ001-007-PAZ055-062-130900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.180312T2100Z-180313T1400Z/
Sussex-Warren-Monroe-Northampton-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Stroudsburg, 
Bethlehem, and Easton
348 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
  are expected. The greatest amounts should be across the higher
  elevations.

* WHERE...Far northwestern New Jersey, portions of the southern
  Poconos and the Lehigh Valley.

* WHEN...Times of light snow into this evening becomes a steadier
  snow later tonight and ends early Tuesday morning. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
  the start of the Tuesday morning commute. Be prepared for 
  reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ008>010-012>015-020-026-130900-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.180313T0000Z-180313T1400Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, 
New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Trenton, Jackson, 
and Long Beach Island
348 PM EDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS
EVENING TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 
  inches are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern, central into southern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Light rain and snow developing toward later this evening
  is expected to change to all snow during tonight, then end 
  early Tuesday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
  during the start of the Tuesday morning commute. Be prepared 
  for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

959 
WWUS41 KPHI 130733
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
333 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018


NJZ015-130845-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1400Z/
Mercer-
Including the city of Trenton
333 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

While it will snow early this morning, storm totals are expected 
to be only 1 to possibly 3 inches. Still, it could be slippery for
the morning commute, so please exercise caution if traveling this
morning. Snow should end in Mercer County around 9 AM.  

$$

PAZ054-131400-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1400Z/
Carbon-
Including the city of Jim Thorpe
333 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Carbon county.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ001-PAZ055-131600-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Sussex-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton and Stroudsburg
333 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches are
  expected with higher terrain storm totals of 3 to 5 inches
  expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex county. In Pennsylvania, Monroe 
  county.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ008-010-012>014-020-026-131600-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-
Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Morristown, Somerville, New Brunswick, 
Freehold, Sandy Hook, Jackson, and Long Beach Island
333 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and coastal central New 
  Jersey.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ007-009-PAZ062-131400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1400Z/
Warren-Hunterdon-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Flemington, Bethlehem, 
and Easton
333 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches
  are expected. Storm totals in the higher elevations should be
  2 to 4 inches.  

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Hunterdon counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Northampton county.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

937 
WWUS41 KPHI 131026
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
626 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

NJZ001-PAZ055-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Sussex-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton and Stroudsburg
626 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
  expected with storm totals generally 3 to possibly 6 inches. 

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex county. In Pennsylvania, Monroe 
  county.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
  during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced visibilities
  at times. Snow tapers to flurries between Noon and 2 PM. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ008-010-012>014-020-026-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-
Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Morristown, Somerville, New Brunswick, 
Freehold, Sandy Hook, Jackson, and Long Beach Island
626 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are
  expected with storm totals generally to 5 inches except 
  possibly 6 inches the high terrain of Morris County.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, and coastal northern and
  central New Jersey.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
  during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced visibilities
  at times. Snow tapers to flurries or sprinkles between Noon and
  2 PM.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ007-009-PAZ054-062-131400-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1400Z/
Warren-Hunterdon-Carbon-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, 
Bethlehem, and Easton
626 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches
  are expected for general storm totals of 2 to 4 inches, possibly
  5 inches in the high terrain. 

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Hunterdon counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Carbon and Northampton counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EDT this morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, including
  during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced visibilities
  at times. Snow ends between 10 AM and Noon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

237 
WWUS41 KPHI 131310
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
910 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

NJZ007-009-PAZ054-062-131600-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Warren-Hunterdon-Carbon-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, 
Bethlehem, and Easton
910 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch 
  are expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Warren and Hunterdon counties. In 
  Pennsylvania, Carbon and Northampton counties.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ001-PAZ055-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Sussex-Monroe-
Including the cities of Newton and Stroudsburg
910 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Sussex county. In Pennsylvania, Monroe 
  county.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ008-010-012>014-020-026-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-
Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Morristown, Somerville, New Brunswick, 
Freehold, Sandy Hook, Jackson, and Long Beach Island
910 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions, 
  including during the morning commute. Be prepared for reduced 
  visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

908 
WWUS41 KPHI 131455
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1055 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

NJZ007-009-PAZ054-055-062-131600-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Warren-Hunterdon-Carbon-Monroe-Northampton-
Including the cities of Washington, Flemington, Jim Thorpe, 
Stroudsburg, Bethlehem, and Easton
1055 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow continues to taper off, and any additional snow accumulation
will be light.

$$

NJZ001-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Sussex-
Including the city of Newton
1055 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Sussex county.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

NJZ008-010-012>014-020-026-131600-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-
Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Morristown, Somerville, New Brunswick, 
Freehold, Sandy Hook, Jackson, and Long Beach Island
1055 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT
TODAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of up to 2 inches 
  are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey.

* WHEN...Until noon EDT today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Be 
  prepared for reduced visibilities at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

388 
WWUS41 KPHI 131540
WSWPHI

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1140 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

NJZ001-008-010-012>014-020-026-131645-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180313T1600Z/
Sussex-Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Newton, Morristown, Somerville, 
New Brunswick, Freehold, Sandy Hook, Jackson, 
and Long Beach Island
1140 AM EDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Snow continues to taper off and temperatures are rising above
freezing. Therefore, the Winter Weather Advisory has been
cancelled.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
www.weather.gov/phi/winter

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
905 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A broad area of low pressure over the southeast U.S.
will consolidate off the Carolina coast overnight, then intensify
before is passes east of Cape Cod on Tuesday. A blustery unstable
northwest flow will follow for the middle of the work week before
high pressure builds over the area late Friday into Saturday.
Low pressure and a complex frontal system may affect our area
late Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
900 pm update: No updates to the near-term forecast are
necessary this evening.

Quiet for tonight. Ridge of high pressure over the area weakens
giving way to increasing high clouds ahead of the next storm system.
Lows generally in the 20s to near 30 except upper teens in the
southern Poconos.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
***Next Coastal Storm Threat***

The main story for this period will be the next major east coast
storm which is progged to move from off the southeast coast early
Monday to a position south of Cape Cod by early Tuesday
impacting the area with at least some rain, snow and wind. This
will be another rapidly intensifying storm system carrying
significant moisture and strong winds. While there is still
uncertainty regarding this storms impact on the forecast area,
forecast models have begun to come into better agreement with
the favored track to our east likely sparing the area the very
heaviest precip so no Winter Storm Watch at this point. However,
it will be close and a shift westward is still possible and
could still bring heavy snow into the area.

In terms of the details, Monday starts off dry with clouds quickly
lowering and thickening. As the low moves north, expect precip to
break out south to north near midday into the afternoon. Temps aloft
will be cold enough for snow,however diurnal heating will help
surface temps get well into the 30s to near 40 so generally
expect mainly rain during the day from around I-95 S/E with some
rain/snow mix farther north and west...especially over the
higher terrain where it could be mainly snow. These areas could
see some minor accumulation by evening.

By Monday evening, rapidly intensifying low will be located
east of Cape Hatteras and moving northeast. At this time,
heavier precip will begin to move up the coast and adjacent
waters. The loss of daytime heating along with evap cooling will
lead to any rain or rain/snow mix changing to mainly snow from
NW to SE around and after 0z. Again, the exact track the low
takes along with surface temps (which will remain marginal) will
determine how much snowfall occurs and since there is still
uncertainty in this, forecast confidence is still not high
regarding amounts. The GFS has remained fairly consistent with
the NAM now matching it fairly closely and the GEM Regional now
following fairly close as well. Forecast was weighted heavily on
these models and less on Euro. The strong lift in the upper
levels along with mid level F-gen forcing will result in bands
of heavy precip that will likely be set up off shore but model
consensus still suggests a quarter to half inch of QPF likely
with this storm over roughly the eastern half of CWA. With the
transition from any rain to all snow Monday evening this should
yield a 2 to 4 inch snowfall by Tuesday mainly north and east of
a Philly to Atlantic City line...highest amounts likely over
higher terrain of N and NW NJ through Morris, Sussex, Warren
Counties as well as into the southern Poconos. Remaining areas
should see a coating up to a couple inches.

By late Monday night into Tuesday morning, low continues to pull
away with snow tapering off from SW to NE. However N/NW winds will
be strengthening so blowing snow may become an issue for the Tuesday
morning commute even though snow will be winding down. The remainder
of Tuesday will be blustery and cool with considerable cloud cover
and scattered rain/snow showers in the storm's wake. Highs will
range from the 30s across the southern Poconos and northern NJ to
the low to mid 40s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL Temperatures this week...Calendar day averages will be
below normal Wednesday and Thursday, generally 3 to 8 degrees
below normal. Snow/rain showers possible Wednesday
afternoon/night, and again Thursday afternoon/night. A slight
warming trend is expected Friday and Saturday before cooler air
moves in on Sunday.

Tuesday night through Sunday: The mid-level low pressure trough
sitting over the eastern U.S. slowly migrates northeast out of the
area during the Tuesday night through Friday time frame, with a few
shots of reinforcing cold air and the possibility of periodic
snow/rain showers with a moisture aloft. As a different mid-
level trough digs deeper over the west coast later in the week,
the flow will take on a more zonal configuration. This won't
completely shut off precipitation, but it will prevent another
organized storm from developing through this time period.

At the surface, the nor'easter affecting our area Monday and
Tuesday will continue moving north-northeast into the Canadian
maritimes. The pressure gradient between this low and incoming
high pressure from the midwest will maintain breezy conditions
through Thursday with northwest wind gusts in the 20 to 25 MPH
range. With moisture aloft, periodic light snow and/or rain
showers are possible, especially Wednesday evening/night, and
again Thursday afternoon and night. Then as high pressure
centers itself over the mid-Atlantic region on Friday, winds
will subside and temperatures will rebound to near normal, or
maybe even slightly above normal through Saturday. Then another
cold front moves through the region later Saturday or early
Sunday, bringing in cooler (not necessarily colder) air for the
start of the new week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with light/variable winds. High confidence.

Monday...CIGs will gradually lower through the day, possibly
becoming MVFR during the late afternoon. Some rain and/or snow
may begin to occur, especially south/east of PHL during the late
afternoon. IFR conditions likely where snow develops. Winds
becoming northeast around 10 kts, possibly gusting to 20 kts,
especially near the coast. Moderate confidence.

Monday night...Sub-VFR conditions likely, especially from PHL
eastward, with snow possible at RDG/ABE and likely elsewhere.
Northeast winds becoming more northerly with time around 10 to
15 kts. Low confidence, especially in the timing/duration of
snow at the TAF sites.

Outlook...

Tuesday...MVFR cigs/conds early in ending flurries, then VFR in
the afternoon as winds turn northwest and gust 20-25 kt.
Confidence: Above average.

Tuesday night...VFR cigs/conds. Confidence: Above average.

Wednesday...VFR but brief IFR conds possible in scattered snow
showers or squalls vcnty KRDG/KABE. Northwest wind gust 20-25
kt. Confidence: Above average.

Wednesday night thru Thursday...mainly VFR but snow showers/squalls
could briefly reduce vsbys. Northwest wind occasionally gusty
20-25 kt, mainly daytime.

Friday...VFR cigs/conds. Confidence: Above average.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through tonight. For
Monday, NE winds progressively ramp up and reach Gale force by the
afternoon over the ocean waters and the southern Delaware Bay by
evening. Gale Warning has now been issued. Seas build to 4 to 6 feet
over the ocean waters by late day. SCA for the upper Bay on
Monday.

OUTLOOK...

Monday night...NE gale force winds over ocean waters and southern
Delaware Bay due to strong ocean storm. Winds shift to NW overnight.
Also reduced visibilities in snow/rain. Seas building to 6 to 8
feet.

Tuesday...northwest winds gusting 25-35 kt. Winds should
diminish below gale force by afternoon.

Tuesday night through Thursday...SCA likely (blustery northwest
flow).

Friday and Saturday...Generally sub-SCA conditions expected,
expect higher gusts possible late Saturday as a cold front
approaches from the west.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The coastal storm developing off the Mid-Atlantic coast early this
week will lead to a threat of coastal flooding on the New Jersey and
Delaware coasts. Model forecasts have been reasonably consistent in
identifying the Tuesday morning high tide with the greatest threat
of flooding.

An examination of the latest gridded ETSS and ESTOFS (GFS-based) and
multi-model ensemble guidance indicates that coastal flooding is
expected to be generally minor but fairly widespread along the NJ/DE
Atlantic coasts with only slight potential for spotty moderate
flooding expected at this time. On the coast of Delaware Bay,
spottier minor flooding is forecast during the Tuesday morning high
tide. Levels will be elevated on the tidal portions of the Delaware
River, but they are expected to remain below advisory levels at this
point.

Beyond Tuesday morning, surface flow is expected to become strong
and offshore, limiting the threat of flooding with subsequent high
tides. However, confidence is a little lower on the NJ coast where
surge will be higher, so coastal flooding cannot be ruled out for
the Tuesday evening high tide. However, the astronomical tide will
be lower for the evening high tide, likely limiting the threat.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 6 PM Monday to noon EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ450>453.
     Gale Warning from noon Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ454-
     455.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to noon EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ430.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ431.

&&

Synopsis...Miketta
Near Term...CMS/Fitzsimmons
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...Miketta
Aviation...CMS/Miketta
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Miketta
Tides/Coastal Flooding...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
340 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-018>020-022-025>027-PAZ054-055-061-062-071-
103>106-121945-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-
Atlantic-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton-Philadelphia-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
340 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A rapidly intensifying ocean storm is expected to bring snow to the
area late Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Generally 2 to 3
inches is expected from this storm, and with wind gusts in the 25 to
35 MPH range, blowing snow can also be expected. The Tuesday morning
commute will be adversly impacted.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-017-021-023-024-PAZ060-070-
101-102-121945-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Cumberland-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Berks-Delaware-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-
340 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A rapidly intensifying ocean storm is expected to bring snow to the
area late Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. Generally 1 to 2
inches is expected from this storm, and with wind gusts in the 25 to
35 MPH range, blowing snow can also be expected. The Tuesday morning
commute will be adversly impacted.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ454-455-121945-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
340 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ450>453-121945-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
340 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ431-121945-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
340 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-121945-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
340 PM EDT Sun Mar 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.