Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
510 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the Middle Atlantic region tonight and then
stall south of the area. Weak high pressure will build in Thursday,
but then a low pressure system will move along the stalled front
Thursday night and Friday. More high pressure will arrive later
Friday and remain into the weekend. Another disturbance will move
towards the area early next week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
500 PM Update...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has now been issued
until 11 PM for our eastern PA counties, much of our New Jersey
zones excluding the Atlantic coastal Counties, and our Delmarva
Counties excluding Sussex County Delaware. Expect that line of
storms currently organizing over portions of central PA will be
entering our County Warning Area within the next hour or two.
With axis of max instability situated right over the area (ML
CAPES 1500-2000 j/kg), storms will have the potential to produce
damaging wind gusts.

Previous Discussion...A cold front continues to push eastward
across central Pennsylvania and will make its way into our
eastern Pennsylvania areas late this afternoon/early this
evening. Clouds have broken out across much of our area, which
as allowed for a fair amount of solar insolation and
temperatures to rise. This has increased instability across our
area, with CAPE values upward of 1,500-2,00 J/kg. The strongest
shear remains mostly north of our area, however bulk shear does
reach 30-40 knots across northeast Pennsylvania and northern New
Jersey where the strongest mid level winds are across our area,
and 25-30 knots near southeast Pennsylvania, central/southern
New Jersey, and northern Delaware and Maryland. The combination
of instability and shear will lead to the greatest threat for
severe weather across northeast Pennsylvania and northern New
Jersey, although there is still a risk farther south. SPC has
basically from the I-95 corridor northward outlined in a Slight
Risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The
main threat would be damaging winds as the freezing level and
web bulb zero level are fairly high.

Another concern is for heavy rainfall with these showers and
thunderstorms. PW values reach 2.00-2.25 inches across the area this
afternoon and evening. The storms are expected to have a decent
storm motion as they approach the area. However, as the front moves
into the area, it may begin slowing down, in turn slowing the
progression of the showers and thunderstorms. If any storms become
slow moving and/or train over the same area, flooding would become a
concern.

The front will continue to push south of the area overnight, and
most showers will move to our south or dissipate. However, the front
is forecast to stall to our south, and additional short
wave/vorticity impulses may lift across the southern Delmarva
overnight and through daybreak, which could keep some showers across
southern Delware, southern Maryland, and southern New Jersey.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
The cold front will remain stalled out to our south during the day
Thursday. However, enhanced lift and moisture will continue to lift
north of the front as several short wave/vorticity impulses move
across the area in the southwest flow aloft. This will likely
continue to bring showers to a portion of our area, especially
southern New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. Areas farther north
will likely not see much precipitation during the day Thursday, at
least until very late in the day as high pressure builds to our
north with our northern areas weakly being under its influence.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thursday night thru Friday...The front from the near/short
term parts of the forecast gets hung up across the S/E areas Thu/Fri
and weak low pressure will move along it. A familiar pattern !
The operational models are all showing a renewal of rain for the
area with the feature, but the details of just how much differ.
The 12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF models offer mostly 1/4 to 1 inch across
our area with the highest totals back across SE PA. The 12Z NAM
is much higher with 2.0 to 2.5 inches across a stripe from KMQS
up thru KSMQ and into NE NJ. The recent rains have caused flash
flood guidance to be rather low, so the NAM's rains would force
a FFA to be considered, but since I'm not fully buying the
higher amounts now, I will not issue one, but it may have to be
considered later if the models begin to trend towards the NAM
amounts.

Friday night...The models are showing improvement for Friday night
with no QPF and varying amounts of drier air at the lower levels.
The NAM shows more low clouds with slow improvement indicated while
the GFS have clear to partly cloudy conditions. Patchy fog is
expected across the rural areas.

Saturday and beyond...Chose to focus more attention on the beginning
part of the long term with all the changes in that period. The
weekend at this point still looks fair with high pressure building
in from Canada and a much drier air mass expected to arrive across
our area. Temperatures look seasonable with mostly 70s for highs and
50s for overnight lows. Beyond that, slight chc or low chc pops for
Tue/Wed with another cold front and low pressure system expected to
approach from the west. Details are far from certain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mostly VFR conditions are across the TAF sites this
afternoon. An area of showers and thunderstorms remains in the
forecast for this evening, and we have adjusted the timing of the
thunderstorms and included IFR visibilities with the thunderstorm
TEMPO group. We expect them to be near ABE/RDG by 22z-01z,
ILG/PHL/PNE/TTN by 00z-03z, and ACY/MIV by 00z-04z.

ABE/RDG/TTN are expected to be VFR through the remainder of the
night once the showers and thunderstorms move through. However, the
remainder of the TAF sites may lower to MVFR overnight, with ACY and
MIV having the greater probability of remaining MVFR with additional
showers overnight.

Winds this afternoon will be south-southwest 5-10 knots, then become
northwest behind the cold front 5-10 knots, then north late in the
night.

Thursday...MVFR conditions will likely remain through the day for ACY
and MIV. The remainder of the TAF sites are a little uncertain, but
may improve to VFR during the morning. Showers are most likely
across southern New Jersey and southern Delaware and Maryland during
the day Thursday.

Winds will become northeast during the day Thursday around 5-10
knots.

Outlook...
Thursday night...Lowering CIGS and possible VSBY restrictions toward
  dawn with rain arriving across the area.
Friday...Restrictions to CIGS and VSBY possible with rains across
  the area. MVFR expected with IFR possible.
Friday night...Slow improvement to CIGS/VSBYS. Patchy fog.
Saturday thru Monday...Mostly VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Thursday. Winds
remain below 25 knots this afternoon and evening, but seas remain 5-
6 feet. Winds may increase for a time behind a cold front tonight.
Even though winds diminish on Thursday, seas will remain elevated.

Rip currents...
A moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents is
expected the rest of today and tonight. With an increasing onshore
flow on Thursday, the rip current risk will likely be at least
moderate, but may increase to high.

Outlook...
We extended the SCA flag into Thursday night with seas lingering at
or just above 5 ft. This could be the last extension since seas will
be closer to 3 to 4 ft for Friday and into the weekend. Rain and fog
will be across the waters Thu night and into Friday, but then fair
weather in expected Fri night and into the weekend.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX radar remains offline due to an equipment failure. Technicians
have been working on it all day, but are now awaiting for parts to
be delivered before the radar can be repaired. It appears the radar
will be down tonight. Meanwhile, KDOX also remains offline due to an
equipment failure.

Surrounding radars include KOKX, KBGM, KCCX, KLWX, and KAKQ.

Thank you for your patience with this situation.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>455.

&&

Synopsis...O'Hara
Near Term...Fitzsimmons/Robertson
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...Robertson/MPS
Marine...Robertson/O'Hara
Equipment...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
513 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-015>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-
101>106-272115-
New Castle-Cecil-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-
Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
513 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New
Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast
Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In addition, storms this evening will be capable of producing heavy
rain leading to localized flooding primarily in poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the possibility for more rains Thursday night and Friday.
More poor drainage flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ012-013-272115-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
513 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and
northern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated that there is slight risk
for severe thunderstorms this evening and tonight. In addition, some
storms through this period will be capable of producing heavy rain
leading to localized flooding primarily in poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the possibility for more rains Thursday night and Friday.
More poor drainage flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-272115-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
513 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
through at least this evening.

Thunderstorms are expected this evening and early tonight. The
thunderstorms may have gusty winds and heavy rains. These heavy
rains could lead to localized poor drainage flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the possibility for more rains Thursday night and Friday.
More poor drainage flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ021-027-272115-
Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Cumberland-
Southeastern Burlington-
513 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northeast
Maryland and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

In addition, storms this evening will be capable of producing heavy
rain leading to localized flooding primarily in poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the possibility for more rains Thursday night and Friday.
More poor drainage flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ003-NJZ020-022-023-272115-
Inland Sussex-Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-
513 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected this evening and early tonight. The
thunderstorms may have gusty winds and heavy rains. These heavy
rains could lead to localized poor drainage flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is the possibility for more rains Thursday night and Friday.
More poor drainage flooding is possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ431-450>455-272115-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
513 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Wind gusts above 34 KT will be possible in the vicinity of stronger
thunderstorms this evening. Areas of fog also expected along the
Atlantic shores of New Jersey this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-272115-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
513 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 390 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Wind gusts above 34 KT will be possible in the vicinity of stronger
thunderstorms this evening. Areas of fog also expected along the
Atlantic shores of New Jersey this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
223 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

NJZ014-024>026-262200-
Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
Coastal Ocean-
Including the cities of Sandy Hook, Ocean City, Atlantic City,
and Long Beach Island
223 PM EDT Wed Sep 26 2018

...Fog Along the Coast...

An area of fog is lifting northward along the New Jersey coast
this afternoon. Areas of dense fog will occur in some spots right
along the coast as this fog lifts northward.

Robertson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
615 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2018

NJZ007-PAZ054-055-062-262245-
Warren-Monroe-Northampton-Carbon-
615 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WARREN...SOUTHEASTERN
CARBON...SOUTHEASTERN MONROE AND NORTHERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTIES...

At 615 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Kunkletown, or
14 miles east of Lehighton, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
East Stroudsburg, Blairstown, Nazareth, Bangor, Pen Argyl, Wind Gap,
Bath, Belvidere, Hope, Belfast, East Bangor, Stormville,
Brodheadsville, Kunkletown, Werry Lake, Gilbert, Millbrook, Delaware
Water Gap, Rossland and Allamuchy-Panther Valley.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Mount Holly NJ.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
northwestern New Jersey...and eastern and northeastern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 4108 7503 4110 7497 4105 7492 4091 7482
      4069 7547 4085 7559 4111 7505
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 241DEG 30KT 4081 7545

MPS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
637 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2018

MDZ008-PAZ060-101-103-262330-
Cecil-Western Montgomery-Western Chester-Berks-
637 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CECIL...
SOUTHEASTERN BERKS...WEST CENTRAL MONTGOMERY AND WESTERN CHESTER
COUNTIES...

At 637 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Adamstown to near Stewartstown. Movement
was east at 20 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Reading, Pottstown, Coatesville, Wyomissing, Birdsboro, Oxford,
Parkesburg, Rising Sun, Honey Brook, Elverson, New Morgan, Homeville,
Glen Roy, Cochranville, West Nottingham, Octoraro, Pughtown, Mount
Vernon, Glenmoore and Richardsmere.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Mount Holly NJ.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for
northeastern Maryland...and eastern and southeastern Pennsylvania.

LAT...LON 3972 7614 3974 7612 3973 7610 3976 7606
      3983 7604 3987 7599 3995 7600 4004 7593
      4011 7594 4014 7588 4030 7612 4031 7611
      4032 7548 3959 7611 3972 7623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 273DEG 19KT 4026 7608 3971 7657

MPS