Special Weather Statement, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
917 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the area tonight into early
Saturday morning. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop
along this boundary Friday night and become nearly stationary
just to our south over the weekend. This low is forecast to
begin to move to the northeast later Monday into Tuesday as
another area of low pressure is expected to move out southern
Canada and toward the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. These
lows will moves northward toward the Canadian Maritimes through
the end of next week. High pressure may affect the area later
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
One area of showers and thunderstorms is passing through
northern NJ. Meanwhile, another area, this one a bit more
organized and a bit stronger, is west of DC/Baltimore and is
approaching the Delmarva. A few showers and thunderstorms may
develop ahead of this area before it passes through the region
in a few hours from now. With high PWATs, generally between
1.8-2.0", can expect heavy downpours and localized flooding is
possible. Precip tapers off after midnight. Patchy fog develops
thereafter.

Another warm and humid night on tap with lows in the low 70s
across Delmarva and low/mid 60s across the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will form along the front to our south. Showers
associated with this low will affect mostly the srn part of the
CWA through the day. High likely/categorical pops for those
areas will remain. Temperatures will be cooler than friday with
highs in the upper 70s/low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue for the
weekend into early next week with the potential for periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall.

The low that forms along the front on Saturday is expected to
become nearly stationary to our south Saturday night through
Sunday. There are some slight placement differences with the
low, but the general idea is that the low will be near the mouth
of the Chesapeake Saturday night trough Sunday. As we begin to
move into Sunday night and Monday, this low is expected to begin
lifting northward near and just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic
coast. The highest chances for showers Saturday night into
Sunday is expected to be southern New Jersey and the Delmarva.
As we move into Sunday night and Monday, as the low begins to
lift northward, the precipitation axis will lift northward as
well. Saturday night into Sunday have the better chance for
periods of heavy rainfall as this is the time period when
precipitable waters are highest. There will remain a chance for
moderate to heavy rainfall Sunday night into Monday, but PW
values begin to lower, so the threat is not as high. Also, any
thunderstorms are expected to remain limited to Saturday evening
as the instability is forecast to dissipate overnight Saturday
through early next week.

This low pressure will lift to our northeast Monday night into
Tuesday and bring any associated precipitation with it. Then
another low pressure is forecast to move out of southern Canada
and toward the northeast states later Tuesday into Wednesday,
possibly bringing a cold front across the area. There could be
another round of showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR initially. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop late this evening and continues through just after
midnight, mainly for southern terminals. Thereafter, VSBY
restrictions in fog expected, and MVFR CIGs will develop at
KMIV/KACY. Light SW winds, generally less than 5 kt.

Saturday...Low pressure will move along a front and bring
showers to much of the area during the day. Probably mostly VFR
N/W with MVFR CIGS/VSBYS S/E.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday night and Sunday...MVFR or IFR conditions expected to
develop. Periods of rain, especially for southern New Jersey,
Delaware, the eastern shore of Maryland. East-northeast winds
may gust up to 20 to 30 knots at times, especially from about
PHL on eastward.

Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or IFR conditions continue. Rain
begins to spread northward. East to northeast winds Sunday
night, become north to northwest Monday. Winds may gust 15-20
knots.

Monday night-Tuesday...Improvement to VFR possible.
Isolated/scattered showers remain. Northwest winds Monday night,
becoming westerly Tuesday. Winds may gust 15-20 knots.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Generally VFR conditions. Chance of
showers which may temporarily lower conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of fog on the waters tonight through Saturday morning.
Sub-SCA conditions on tap tonight and Saturday. Winds will be
S-SW winds this evening will turn mostly N or NE for Saturday.
There will be scattered tstms and showers late this evening
with locally higher winds and seas, and then showers and
scattered thunderstorms on tap for Saturday.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday night-Sunday night...Conditions likely to become at
least Small Craft Advisory levels, but may approach gale force;
especially for the southern half of the waters and Delaware Bay.

Monday-Monday night...Conditions likely to remain at Small
Craft Advisory levels.

Tuesday...Winds may drop below advisory levels, but seas may
remain elevated.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Conditions may drop below advisory
levels.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...Robertson
Near Term...MPS/O'Hara
Short Term...O'Hara
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Robertson/MPS/O'Hara
Marine...Robertson/MPS/O'Hara

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-023>025-021945-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-
342 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New
Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Locally heavy rain this evening and tonight may produce flooding in
poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Downpours Saturday into Sunday may be heavy and persistent enough to
produce local flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-017>020-022-026-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-
071-101>106-021945-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Ocean-Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-
Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-
Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Lower Bucks-
342 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Locally heavy rain this evening and tonight may produce flooding in
poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Locally heavy rain Saturday into Sunday may produce flooding in poor
drainage areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-021945-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
342 PM EDT Fri Jun 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is a chance for a period of low-end gale force gusts late
Saturday night through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1242 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

DEZ001-002-MDZ008-012-015-020545-
Kent-New Castle-Queen Anne's-Cecil-Kent-
1242 AM EDT SAT JUN 2 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN NEW CASTLE...
NORTHWESTERN KENT...NORTHEASTERN QUEEN ANNE'S...NORTHEASTERN KENT AND
CECIL COUNTIES...

At 1240 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Havre De
Grace, Maryland, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds up to 35 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Middletown, Elkton, North East, Clayton, Charlestown, Cecilton,
Millington, Warwick, Bohemias Mills, West Nottingham, Brantwood,
Delaney Corner, Bay View, Sassafras, Mount Pleasant, Green Spring,
Woodlawn, Cayots, Massey and Hollywood Beach.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3971 7610 3946 7558 3944 7558 3942 7554
      3917 7575 3938 7606 3943 7600 3946 7601
      3952 7598 3955 7603 3955 7608 3964 7616
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 301DEG 28KT 3959 7607

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