Small Craft Advisory 92, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

754 
WHUS71 KPHI 310720
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
320 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018



ANZ450>455-312030-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.181031T1500Z-181101T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
320 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* TIMING...Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 
  30 kt. Seas 3 to 6 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-312030-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.181031T1500Z-181101T2200Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
320 AM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EDT THURSDAY...

* TIMING...Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 
  25 kt. Seas 1 to 3 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

073 
WHUS71 KPHI 311942
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

ANZ450>455-011000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-181102T1000Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
342 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up 
  to 25 knots tonight and Thursday. Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots
  with gusts up to 30 knots on Thursday night. Localized gale 
  force wind gusts are possible on Thursday night. Seas building 
  to 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to 
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a 
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-011000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-181102T1000Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
342 PM EDT Wed Oct 31 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up 
  to 25 knots tonight and Thursday. Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots
  with gusts up to 25 knots on Thursday night. Localized gale 
  force wind gusts are possible on Thursday night. Seas building 
  to 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to 
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a 
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Iovino

328 
WHUS71 KPHI 010739
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
339 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

ANZ430-431-012100-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-181102T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.SC.Y.0093.181101T1600Z-181102T1600Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
339 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect from noon today to noon EDT
Friday.

* LOCATION...Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...South to southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts
  up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ450>455-012100-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-181102T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
339 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and
  Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30
  kt. There is some potential for a gale-force wind gust late
  tonight. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

CMS

703 
WHUS71 KPHI 011935
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
335 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

ANZ450>455-021000-
/O.EXT.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-181103T1000Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
335 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and 
  Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up 
  to 30 knots tonight into Friday night. There is the potential 
  for isolated gale force gusts late tonight. Seas 4 to 8 feet.

* OUTLOOK...Gale force wind gusts from the northwest are possible
  on Saturday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to 
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a 
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-021000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-181102T1600Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
335 PM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT 
FRIDAY...

* LOCATION...Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to
  30 knots tonight into Friday morning. There is the potential for
  isolated gale force gusts late tonight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

* OUTLOOK...Gale force wind gusts from the northwest are possible
  on Saturday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to 
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a 
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

Iovino

447 
WHUS71 KPHI 020744
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
344 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

ANZ450>455-022045-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-181103T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0022.181103T1200Z-181103T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
344 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Gale
Watch, which is in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon.

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and 
  Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt
  through tonight. Seas 5 to 8 feet through tonight. On Saturday,
  winds switch to west or northwest at 20 to 30 kt with gusts up
  to 40 kt possible. Seas 4 to 7 feet on Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-022045-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-181102T1600Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.A.0022.181103T1200Z-181103T2200Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
344 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Gale
Watch, which is in effect from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon.

* LOCATION...Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30
  kt through this morning. Seas 2 to 4 feet this morning. On
  Saturday, winds switch to west or northwest at 15 to 25 kt with
  gusts up to 35 kt possible. Seas 2 to 4 feet on Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

CMS

174 
WHUS71 KPHI 021553
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1153 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

ANZ430-431-030500-
/O.EXP.KPHI.SC.Y.0093.000000T0000Z-181102T1600Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0022.181103T1200Z-181103T2200Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
1153 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EDT TODAY...

* LOCATION...Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...On Saturday, winds switch to west or northwest
  at 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt possible. Seas 2 to 4 
  feet on Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ450>455-030500-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-181103T1000Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0022.181103T1200Z-181103T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1153 AM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and 
  Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 
  kt through tonight. Seas 5 to 8 feet through tonight. On 
  Saturday, winds switch to west or northwest at 20 to 30 kt 
  with gusts up to 40 kt possible. Seas 4 to 7 feet on Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft.
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider
altering their plans.

&&

$$

275 
WHUS71 KPHI 022012
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
412 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

ANZ450>455-031000-
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-181103T1000Z/
/O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0022.181103T1200Z-181103T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0034.181103T1000Z-181103T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
412 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
SATURDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Gale 
Warning, which is in effect from 6:00 AM until 6:00 PM Saturday.

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and 
  Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 
  25 knots through tonight. Seas 5 to 8 feet. On Saturday, winds 
  switch to west northwest at 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 
  knots. Seas 4 to 7 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means that winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires 
experience and a properly equipped vessel. It is highly 
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe 
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce wave conditions that are hazardous to 
small craft. Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating a 
small vessel, should avoid navigating in these conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-031000-
/O.UPG.KPHI.GL.A.0022.181103T1200Z-181103T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.GL.W.0034.181103T1000Z-181103T2200Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
412 PM EDT Fri Nov 2 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Gale 
Warning, which is in effect from 6:00 AM until 6:00 PM Saturday. 

* LOCATION...Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...On Saturday, west northwest winds 15 to 25
  knots with gusts up to 35 knots. Seas 2 to 5 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means that winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires 
experience and a properly equipped vessel. It is highly 
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe 
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

Iovino

539 
WHUS71 KPHI 030746
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
346 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

ANZ450>455-032200-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-181103T1000Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0034.181103T0800Z-181103T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
346 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...The Atlantic coastal waters of New Jersey and 
  Delaware.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 45 kt.
  Seas 7 to 10 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ430-431-032200-
/O.EXT.KPHI.GL.W.0034.181103T0800Z-181103T2200Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
346 AM EDT Sat Nov 3 2018

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* LOCATION...Delaware Bay.

* WINDS AND SEAS...West winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 
  kt. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means that winds of 34 to 47 knots are imminent or
occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and a properly equipped vessel. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
947 AM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build across the eastern U.S.
today before moving slowly offshore Wednesday. A cold front will
approach the region Wednesday night and Thursday before
progressing through the area on Friday and Friday night. High
pressure will build into the Northeast by the end of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No major changes to the ongoing forecast. Minor temperature and
wind adjustments to the hourly grids.

An upper level trough will continue to move east of the region
through today. A this occurs, surface high pressure will move
toward the southeast US coast with a ridge extending north into
PA. These features will result in abundant sunshine with winds
still a bit breezy, out of the NW at around 10 mph with some
gusts closer to 20 mph. Highs will range from the upper 40s to
low 50s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ to the mid 50s to
low 60s elsewhere...mildest over the Delmarva.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Surface ridge extending north from high pressure over the
southeast crests over the area later this evening before moving
offshore overnight. The result will be light winds and
continuing mainly clear skies with a good set up for
radiational cooling. Expect lows in the mid to upper 30s over
the southern Poconos and NW NJ and in the upper 30s to mid 40s
elsewhere...warmest over the Delmarva.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Main focus for the medium-range forecast is on the late-week
system, with the biggest change being a slow-down in its
progression across the area.

The operational models depict a strong upper low in south-
central Canada at 12Z Wednesday with a southern-stream
northwest-flow vort max digging southeastward into the Four
Corners region. Downstream of these large-scale systems, ridge
amplification will be taking place across the East Coast, and
this spells a warmup for the area. MEX/ECE guidance show
temperatures 3-8 degrees above seasonal averages on Wednesday
increasing to 5 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages on
Thursday. South to southwest winds on the upstream side of a
surface high shifting off the coast during this period may be on
the breezy side during the day, especially south of the Mason-
Dixon Line and near the coast.

For the most part, the region should be dry on Wednesday, but
the approaching cold front attendant to the large-scale upper
low in southern Canada will make enough progress southeastward
to begin affecting northwest portions of the CWA Wednesday
night and Thursday. Increased PoPs in these areas through this
period but only made gradual progression southeastward with
time, as the highly amplified pattern and the strong ridging in
the western Atlantic will not allow much movement of the front
during this period.

The key to faster progression thereafter is a kicker
perturbation in the southern stream that digs southeastward
quickly on Thursday from the central Rockies to the southern
plains. This allows the predecessor vort max to eject
northeastward into the central Mississippi Valley and Ohio
Valley by Thursday night. Aided by jet coupling and strong
differential cyclonic vorticity advection, surface cyclogenesis
will occur from the southern plains northeast into the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night and Thursday. The 00Z models indicate the
surface low placement somewhere in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by
00Z Friday (GFS typically fast; ECMWF slow; CMC generally in
between). This process will stall the approaching cold front
(possibly retreating northward as a warm front) as a north-
south cold front begins to sweep eastward to the south of the
developing low. Very strong ridge amplification will occur
Thursday night and Friday, aiding in substantial isentropic
ascent near the stalled front in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic.
Rain should pick up quickly Thursday night as this occurs. The
main question is where...as the front's position will be
critical in deducing who gets moderate to heavy precip and who
gets little to none farther southward into the warm sector.

I suspect the heaviest precipitation will remain north/west of
the area, but the Poconos and Lehigh Valley look to be in close
enough proximity to see some decent rainfall during this period.
Given the associated isentropic (slanted) ascent, suspect most
of the precipitation will be stratiform. However, cannot
completely rule out convection during this period, especially if
precipitation can develop in the warm sector. May need to add
thunder chances for this period in later forecasts. Model QPF
through this time is indicating potential for 0.5-2 inches of
rain generally northwest of the urban corridor with rapidly
diminishing amounts to the southeast.

The surface low makes the move northeastward into the eastern
Great Lakes and southeast Canada by Friday night, with the cold
front to its south sweeping eastward into the Appalachians and
East Coast through this time. A strong perturbation will eject
eastward atop the front. This highly dynamic setup spells
widespread showers and a few storms in advance of the front
Friday and Friday night. Have added thunder mention for Friday.
The ECMWF is fairly aggressive with QPF in our area during this
time and also quite a bit slower than the GFS. I weighted the
forecast more to the ECMWF/CMC during this time, keeping fairly
high PoPs through Friday night, as the fast progression of the
GFS seems suspicious given the strength of downstream ridging
(Additionally, ensembles seem to provide support for a slower
solution). Will also need to monitor potential for secondary low
development along the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday night and
Saturday given a favorable-looking upper-level pattern. There
are at least hints of this in the depicted mean sea-level
pressure fields in the GFS/ECMWF/CMC, and there is a distinct
secondary QPF maximum along the coast in both the CMC/GFS.

The low(s) should progress northeastward on Saturday, leaving
our region in the breezy northwest-flow wake. Though it will be
cooler, the origins of the system are warm (i.e., southern
stream), so it will be by no means as cold as it could be. In
fact, temperatures may remain near or slightly above seasonal
to close out the weekend as high pressure builds northeastward
into the Northeast.

Models remain in decent agreement into early next week,
indicating that as the surface high slides off to the northeast,
a weak surface trough (developing warm front) will lift north
into the region, producing a period of showers. Increased PoPs
by early next week and started to warm temperatures by this time
as well.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with a few clouds, but mainly clear. Northwest wind
around 10 knots, with gusts 15-20 knots in the afternoon.

Tonight...VFR. Westerly winds diminishing to 5 knots, then
becoming light and variable to calm.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR with winds becoming south or southwest 5 to 15
kts. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Generally VFR, but increasing
chances of showers north/west of PHL with potential for some
periods of sub-VFR in their proximity. Winds generally southwest
5 to 15 kts, perhaps with a few gusts during the day Thursday,
especially near the coast. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night and Friday...Periods of sub-VFR likely with a
good chance of rain/showers. Winds generally southwest 5 to 15
kts, likely stronger near the coast. Some gusts to 20+ kts
possible. Moderate confidence.

Friday night...Lingering sub-VFR possible as showers may persist
into the evening/overnight before a cold front sweeps through
the region. Winds becoming northwest after cold-frontal passage.
Speeds generally 10 kts or lower, but may gust near and just
after frontal passage. Low confidence.

Saturday...Conditions are expected to improve to VFR with
northwest winds 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts. Moderate
confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
The remaining SCA flag for the ocean was taken down since winds
and seas continue to diminish. A few gusts in the 20 to 25 knot
range may occur through noon however.  The general trend has
been and will continue to be for NW winds to gradually diminish.
Conditions are then expected to stay below SCA levels for all
zones through tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...Advisory-level winds/seas likely as
southwest winds develop and seas build in advance of a system
approaching the area late this week.

Thursday night and Friday...At least advisory-level winds
expected, and some models are depicting low-end gale-force winds
Thursday night. However, given the warming low levels during
this period, not completely sold on this potential yet. Seas
should remain quite elevated. Increasing chances for
showers/storms.

Friday night and Saturday...Advisory-level seas probable and
winds possible as directions switch to northwest after cold-
frontal passage Friday night and Saturday morning. Winds will
likely increase and be highest just after frontal passage.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

Synopsis...CMS
Near Term...Fitzsimmons/pO
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...CMS
Aviation...CMS/Fitzsimmons
Marine...CMS/Fitzsimmons/po

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
427 AM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-310830-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
427 AM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-310830-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
427 AM EDT Tue Oct 30 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

CMS