Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 2, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

774 
WHUS71 KPHI 021437
MWWPHI

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
937 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

ANZ450>453-030400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180102T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180102T2300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-180103T0700Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0001.180104T1200Z-180105T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out
20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
937 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Freezing
Spray Advisory, which is in effect until 6:00 PM this evening. 

* Location...The coastal waters of New Jersey.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots through
  tonight. After a lull in winds Wednesday, northwest 20 to 30 
  knots with gusts up to 40 knots Thursday and Friday.

* Seas...3 to 5 feet today. After a lull tonight and Wednesday, 
  seas will build to 5 to 8 feet Thursday and Friday.

* Freezing Spray...Moderate rates of accumulation near the coast 
  today.

* Timing...Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through 
  late tonight. Gale conditions are expected Thursday and Friday.

* Outlook...Moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected Thursday
  night through Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. 
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller 
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate 
accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in 
freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be
prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to 
sea or enter the advisory area.

Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains 
free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not 
impacted due to adverse weather conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing 
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide 
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider 
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ454-455-030400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180102T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180102T2300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-180102T1800Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0001.180104T1200Z-180105T2200Z/
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
937 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Freezing
Spray Advisory, which is in effect until 6:00 PM this evening. 

* Location...The Atlantic coastal waters of Delaware.

* Winds...Northwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots through
  early afternoon. After a lull in winds this afternoon through 
  Wednesday, northwest 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots on
  Thursday and Friday.

* Seas...3 to 5 feet through this morning. After a lull this 
  afternoon through Wednesday, seas building to 4 to 7 feet 
  Thursday and Friday.

* Freezing Spray...Moderate rates of accumulation near the coast
  today.

* Timing...Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through
  early afternoon. Gale conditions are expected Thursday and 
  Friday.

* Outlook...Moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected Thursday
  night through Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds of 25 to 33 knots 
are expected to produce hazardous wave conditions to small craft. 
Inexperienced mariners...especially those operating smaller 
vessels should avoid navigating in these conditions.

A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate 
accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in 
freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be
prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to 
sea or enter the advisory area.

Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains 
free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not 
impacted due to adverse weather conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing 
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide 
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider 
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ431-030400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.UP.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180102T1500Z/
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-180102T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180102T2300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0001.180104T1200Z-180105T2200Z/
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
937 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Freezing
Spray Advisory, which is in effect until 6:00 PM this evening. 

* Location...Lower Delaware Bay.

* Winds...After a lull this afternoon and Wednesday, northwest 15
  to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt Thursday and Friday.

* Seas...After a lull this afternoon and tonight, seas building 
  back to 3 to 5 feet Thursday and Friday.

* Freezing Spray...Moderate rates of accumulation today.

* Timing...Gale conditions are expected Thursday and Friday.

* Outlook...Moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected Thursday
  morning through Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate 
accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in 
freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be
prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to 
sea or enter the advisory area.

Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains 
free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not 
impacted due to adverse weather conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing 
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide 
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider 
altering their plans.

&&

$$

ANZ430-030400-
/O.CAN.KPHI.SC.Y.0109.000000T0000Z-180102T1500Z/
/O.EXT.KPHI.UP.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180102T2300Z/
/O.CON.KPHI.GL.A.0001.180104T1200Z-180105T2200Z/
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
937 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the 
Small Craft Advisory.

* Location...Upper Delaware Bay.

* Winds...After a lull this afternoon and Wednesday, northwest 15
  to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt Thursday and Friday.

* Seas...1 to 3 feet.

* Freezing Spray...Moderate rates of accumulation today.

* Timing...Gale conditions are expected Thursday and Friday.

* Outlook...Moderate to heavy freezing spray is expected Thursday
  night through Saturday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freezing Spray Advisory means that light to moderate 
accumulation of ice is expected on vessels. Operating a vessel in 
freezing spray can be hazardous. It is recommended that vessels be
prepared to take appropriate counter measures before putting to 
sea or enter the advisory area.

Mariners are urged to ensure their life saving equipment remains 
free of ice and that their fire fighting capabilities are not 
impacted due to adverse weather conditions.

A Gale Watch is issued when the risk of gale force winds of 34 to
47 knots has significantly increased...but the specific timing 
and/or location is still uncertain. It is intended to provide 
additional lead time for mariners who may wish to consider 
altering their plans.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
253 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure centered over the lower Missouri River
Valley this afternoon will build to the east. The high will
continue to influence our region into Wednesday. Low pressure is
then forecast to develop off the Southeast coast. The low is
expected to intensify rapidly as it moves northward over the
waters off the Middle Atlantic and New England coasts on
Wednesday night and Thursday. Cold high pressure is anticipated
to build into our region from the west for Friday and the
weekend. Low pressure is forecast to approach from the west
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Updated at 253 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

Another cold night in progress across the area, but temperatures
are running a few degrees warmer than last night, in general.
The southern Poconos remain windy enough to feature localized
wind chills to -15 or lower on the exposed ridge tops. Issued a
special weather statement for this threat through the early
morning hours.

Today will be mostly sunny and a little warmer as heights rise a
little bit upstream of the shortwave trough moving through the
area at this time. However, readings should be comfortably below
freezing everywhere again today. MOS is generally coming in
about five degrees warmer versus yesterday, but guidance has
been much too warm the past few days. Once again, kept
temperatures below consensus of statistical guidance, which
keeps temperatures in the teens in the Poconos and lower to mid
20s elsewhere.

Winds should be a touch lighter today, but still expect a few
gusts up to 20 mph or so late this morning and this afternoon.
Wind chills will "peak" around zero in the Poconos to the
lower/middle teens in the urban corridor southeastward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Updated at 253 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

Another cold night is in store as a surface high progresses
through the Mid-Atlantic. The region will remain downstream of
several midlevel perturbations that will work in concert to
deepen a trough in the Great Lakes southward to the Gulf of
Mexico, which will become a critical playmaker in the long term.
However, with large-scale subsidence continuing well downstream,
skies should be mostly clear and winds will be fairly light
(especially compared to recently) as the surface high reduces
the pressure gradient in our area.

With the lighter winds and clear skies, there is some potential
for temperatures to fall rather quickly, especially in
rural/valley locations. Additionally, warm-air advection
downstream of the aforementioned trough should generally hold
off until Wednesday. With these factors in mind, I suspect
guidance is too warm for tonight's minima. I went a couple
degrees below MOS in most locations.

This places the Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northwest New Jersey
in the single digits, and the rest of the area in the low to
mid teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Arctic high pressure is forecast to slide from the Ohio River
Valley to the Middle Atlantic region on Tuesday night.
Meanwhile, low pressure is expected to begin taking shape north
of the Bahamas.

We will continue to experience cold dry weather for Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Temperatures should moderate a bit for
Wednesday with afternoon highs mainly in the 20s and lower 30s
in our region.

The low off the Southeast coast is anticipated to intensify
rapidly on Wednesday and Thursday as is moves northward. It is
forecast to reach our latitude around midday on Thursday. It
continues to appears as though the system will throw some snow
back into our region from Wednesday night into Thursday. The
western edge of the precipitation shield is expected to reach
eastern Pennsylvania based on a consensus of the latest
guidance. Perhaps we'll see a few inches of snow along the
Interstate 95 corridor with a little more snow toward the coast.
Some variation in the system's track will likely take place
between now and mid week as we try to settle on a snowfall total
forecast.

The snow is expected to end on Thursday night. However, windy
and very cold conditions are likely for Thursday night and
Friday as the storm system moves up and over Atlantic Canada.
Wind chill values may drop to -10 to -20 in much of our region
at that time, possibly falling around -30 in the elevated
terrain up north.

Cold high pressure from the west is forecast to build across
our region over the weekend with dry weather anticipated.

Low pressure and its associated frontal boundaries may approach
from the west early next week, bringing another chance for
precipitation. Conditions may warm enough to result in the
potential for some mixed precipitation at that time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight...VFR with light northwest winds. High
confidence.

Tuesday...VFR with west to northwest winds 5 to 15 kts with
sporadic gusts to 20 kts, especially at KACY. High confidence.

Tuesday night...VFR with light west winds. High confidence.

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night and Thursday...The potential for snow with
conditions possibly lowering to MVFR and IFR.

Thursday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Updated at 253 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

Though gales have held off on Delaware Bay and the adjacent
coastal waters overnight, the icing algorithms calculated at
Cape May, Sandy Hook, and Lewes are well above heavy freezing
spray warning thresholds. I have upgraded the advisory to a
warning for Lower Delaware Bay and all of the Atlantic waters
through the late morning, though I have kept it as an advisory
for Upper Delaware Bay based on the readings from Ship John
Shoal. The freezing spray should mostly be a problem near the
coast, with offshore ocean temps 40+ degrees.

Small craft advisory conditions will continue on Delaware Bay
through mid morning and for the Atlantic waters of Delaware
through around noon. Current advisories for these areas were
unchanged.

However, the advisory for the New Jersey coastal waters was
extended to 2 am Wednesday, as another surge of stronger
northwest winds is expected after sunset this evening. Sub-
advisory conditions should continue for Delaware Bay and the
Atlantic coastal waters this evening and tonight, in closer
proximity to a surface ridge.

Freezing spray should become light this afternoon with the
lighter winds, but there is some threat of moderate ice
accretion rates tonight near Sandy Hook. For now, kept the
forecast conservative, but this has not proven to be a
particularly good strategy the past couple of nights.

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday through Wednesday evening...No marine headlines are
anticipated. Light freezing spray.

Late Wednesday night through Friday...A northwest gale is
expected to develop as strong low pressure passes well to the
east of the Delaware and New Jersey coastal waters and up to
Atlantic Canada. Moderate freezing spray.

Friday night and Saturday...A northwest wind gusting to 25 to
30 knots. Moderate freezing spray.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Arctic cold will continue its hold on the region through at
least the upcoming weekend. This current cold outbreak has
already been associated with several daily cold (both maximum
and minimum) temperature records over the past week, including a
record low at Georgetown, DE (GED) and Reading, PA (RDG) this
morning and a record cold maximum at Allentown (ABE) this
afternoon. Additional record lows and record cold maximum
temperatures could be set Thursday night through Saturday.

The following list includes records that may fall.

Record Low Temperatures for 1/5:
Wilmington (ILG)...4F (1904)
Allentown (ABE)...1F (2014)
Georgetown (GED)...9F (1958)

Record Low Temperatures for 1/5:
Atlantic City (ACY)...4F (1981)
Philadelphia (PHL)...4F (1896)
Wilmington (ILG)...7F (1924 and 1946)
Trenton (ttn)...5F (1896 and 1904)
Georgetown (GED)...6F (1969)

In addition, many of our climate sites should stay below
freezing through at least the end of the current forecast
(Sunday 1/7). This would be a streak of at least 10 days below
freezing (beginning 12/27) for PHL and ILG. "If" this happens,
and its not a lock...it would be tied for the 8th longest
stretch of at or below freezing at PHL and tied for the 7th
longest stretch at ILG. ABE is on track to have a stretch of at
least 11 days at or below freezing (ABE did not get above
freezing on 12/26). This would be tied for the 17th longest
stretch.

For the year that has just ended, Philadelphia ended the year
with a mean temperature of 58.0 F. This is tied for the 5th
highest mean temperature since records began. Only 2012, 2016,
1998, and 1931 surpass this mark and 1991 tied this mark.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>453.
     Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ454-
     455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...CMS/Iovino
Marine...CMS/Iovino
Climate...Johnson/Klein

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
350 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

PAZ054-055-060>062-022100-
Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
350 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Pennsylvania and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Wind chill values from 0 to near 15 degrees below zero will continue
at times, however the coldest values will be confined to the highest
terrain in the Poconos.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Wind Chill Advisories will likely be needed again for Thursday night
through Saturday morning with wind chills falling between 10 below
and 15 below zero at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ070-071-
101>106-022100-
New Castle-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
350 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, northeast
Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New
Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The potential for accumulating snowfall Wednesday night into
Thursday has increased. Snowfall amounts and the extent of impacts we
see from this system will ultimately depend on how close the
offshore low tracks to our area, which is still uncertain at this
time.

Wind Chill Advisories will likely be needed again for late Thursday
night into Friday morning and Friday night into Saturday morning with
wind chills falling between 5 below and 15 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ002>004-NJZ013-014-016>027-022100-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-
Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
350 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, central New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The potential for a plowable snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday
has increased. Near whiteout conditions could occur on Thursday,
especially near the coast, where very gusty northwest winds are
expected to develop. It is important to note that both snowfall
amounts and the severity of impacts we see from this system will
ultimately depend on how close the offshore low tracks to our area,
which is still uncertain at this time.

Wind Chill Advisories may be needed again for late Thursday night
into Friday morning and Friday night into Saturday morning with wind
chills falling between 5 below and 10 below zero.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-431-450>455-022100-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
350 PM EST Mon Jan 1 2018

...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freezing Spray Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freezing Spray Advisory.

Northwest gales are expected Thursday through Friday. A Freezing
Spray Advisory or Heavy Freezing Spray Warning will likely be needed
during that time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
139 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

PAZ054-055-021200-
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
139 AM EST Tue Jan 2 2018

Wind chills are locally reaching -15 to -20 degrees on exposed
ridge tops in the southern Poconos. If outside, be sure to dress
appropriately to avoid potential frostbite or hypothermia.

CMS