Coastal Flood Advisory 49, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

822 
WHUS41 KPHI 021300
CFWPHI

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
800 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

DEZ001-NJZ016-021400-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-181202T1300Z/
New Castle-Salem-
800 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 AM EST THIS MORNING...

High tide has passed, and tidal flooding is no longer expected to
pose a threat. Spotty minor flooding is possible with this
evening's high tide. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Reedy Point DE
MLLW Categories - Minor 7.2 FT, Moderate 8.2 FT, Major 9.2 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.4 FT, Moderate 2.4 FT, Major 3.4 FT

             Total      Total    Departure          
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  --------
 02/07 PM     7.4        1.6        1.8       Minor    
 03/08 AM     7.0        1.2        1.2        None    
 03/08 PM     6.2        0.4        0.6        None    
 04/09 AM     6.3        0.5        0.3        None    
 04/09 PM     6.2        0.4        0.6        None

&&

$$

NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-106-021600-
/O.CON.KPHI.CF.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-181202T1600Z/
Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Lower Bucks-
800 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...Tidal portions of the Delaware River near and 
  north of the Commodore Barry Bridge area.

* TIMING...Around the time of high tide this morning. High tide 
  at Philadelphia occurs around 930 AM EST.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one foot of saltwater inundation 
  above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near 
  shorelines and tidal waterways. In Philadelphia, roadway 
  flooding is possible in the Navy Shipyard, and along Linden 
  Avenue, Spring Garden Street, and Washington Avenue. In 
  Delaware County, flooding is possible in Tinicum Township. In 
  Gloucester and Camden Counties, roadway flooding is possible 
  in Camden, West Deptford Township, Gloucester City, and other 
  locations near the Delaware River and its tributaries. Minor 
  flooding is possible in Bristol, south Trenton, Hamilton 
  Township, Burlington City, Delran, and other locations near 
  the Delaware River and its tributaries.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor Tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually...the most vulnerable roadways will flood.

Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged...leading to
costly repairs.

Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Burlington NJ
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.3 FT, Moderate 10.3 FT, Major 11.3 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.6 FT, Moderate 2.6 FT, Major 3.6 FT

             Total      Total    Departure          
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  --------
 02/10 AM     9.8        2.1        2.0       Minor    
 02/11 PM     9.8        2.1        2.0       Minor    
 03/11 AM     9.7        2.0        1.6       Minor    
 04/12 AM     9.1        1.4        1.2        None    
 04/12 PM     9.4        1.7        1.0       Minor

Philadelphia PA
MLLW Categories - Minor 8.2 FT, Moderate 9.2 FT, Major 10.2 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 FT, Moderate 2.5 FT, Major 3.5 FT

             Total      Total    Departure          
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  --------
 02/09 AM     8.5        1.8        2.3       Minor    
 02/10 PM     8.4        1.7        2.2       Minor    
 03/10 AM     8.2        1.5        1.8       Minor    
 03/11 PM     7.5        0.8        1.3        None    
 04/11 AM     7.6        0.9        1.0        None    
 04/11 PM     7.4        0.7        1.2        None

&&

$$

CMS

509 
WHUS41 KPHI 021535
CFWPHI

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1035 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

NJZ017-018-PAZ070-071-021645-
/O.CAN.KPHI.CF.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-181202T1600Z/
Gloucester-Camden-Delaware-Philadelphia-
1035 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has cancelled the
Coastal Flood Advisory.

High tide has passed, and river gauge observations are below
advisory levels. Spotty minor flooding may occur again with
this evening's high tide.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Philadelphia PA
MLLW Categories - Minor 8.2 FT, Moderate 9.2 FT, Major 10.2 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.5 FT, Moderate 2.5 FT, Major 3.5 FT

             Total      Total    Departure          
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  --------
 02/10 PM     8.4        1.7        2.2       Minor    
 03/10 AM     8.2        1.5        1.8       Minor    
 03/11 PM     7.5        0.8        1.3        None    
 04/11 AM     7.6        0.9        1.0        None    
 04/11 PM     7.4        0.7        1.2        None

&&

$$

NJZ015-019-PAZ106-021700-
/O.EXT.KPHI.CF.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-181202T1700Z/
Mercer-Northwestern Burlington-Lower Bucks-
1035 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...Tidal portions of the Delaware River adjacent to
  Mercer, Bucks, and Burlington Counties.

* TIMING...Through midday. High tide at Burlington is occurring 
  now.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Up to one foot of saltwater inundation 
  above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near 
  shorelines and tidal waterways. Minor flooding is possible in 
  Bristol, south Trenton, Hamilton Township, Burlington City, 
  Delran, and other locations near the Delaware River and its 
  tributaries.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Coastal Flood Advisory means that minor tidal flooding is
expected. Minor Tidal flooding often results in some road
closures. Usually...the most vulnerable roadways will flood.

Do not leave your vehicle at a location that is prone to tidal
flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flood waters. The
water may be deeper than you think it is. You will be putting
yourself in danger and your vehicle may be damaged...leading to
costly repairs.

Visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service at
water.weather.gov/ahps for additional water level and flood
impact information for your local tide gauge.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Burlington NJ
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.3 FT, Moderate 10.3 FT, Major 11.3 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.6 FT, Moderate 2.6 FT, Major 3.6 FT

             Total      Total    Departure          
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  --------
 02/10 AM     9.8        2.1        2.0       Minor    
 02/11 PM     9.8        2.1        2.0       Minor    
 03/11 AM     9.7        2.0        1.6       Minor    
 04/12 AM     9.1        1.4        1.2        None    
 04/12 PM     9.4        1.7        1.0       Minor

&&

$$

CMS

890 
WHUS41 KPHI 021654
CFWPHI

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1154 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

NJZ015-019-PAZ106-021800-
/O.EXP.KPHI.CF.Y.0049.000000T0000Z-181202T1700Z/
Mercer-Northwestern Burlington-Lower Bucks-
1154 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT NOON EST TODAY...

High tide has passed, and tidal flooding is no longer
expected to pose a threat. Spotty minor flooding is again
possible with tonight's high tide. Monitor the latest
forecasts.

&&

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

Burlington NJ
MLLW Categories - Minor 9.3 FT, Moderate 10.3 FT, Major 11.3 FT
MHHW Categories - Minor 1.6 FT, Moderate 2.6 FT, Major 3.6 FT

             Total      Total    Departure          
 Day/Time    Tide       Tide     from Norm   Flood  
            ft MLLW    ft MHHW       ft      Impact 
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  --------
 02/11 PM     9.8        2.1        2.0       Minor    
 03/11 AM     9.7        2.0        1.6       Minor    
 04/12 AM     9.1        1.4        1.2        None    
 04/12 PM     9.4        1.7        1.0       Minor

&&

$$

CMS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
927 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over New England will move offshore by Sunday.
Low pressure will move across the Great Lakes states and then
down the Saint Lawrence Valley Monday. Its associated fronts
will affect our area tonight into Monday. High pressure will
build in for much of the middle part of the week although a few
weak disturbance will also cross the area. A cold front will
cross the area next Friday followed by high pressure moving in
for the beginning of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
930pm update: current observations indicate temps are above
freezing across Carbon/Monroe/Sussex Counties, therefore removed
mention of freezing rain in these areas as temps will continue
to slowly rise through the overnight. Will continue mention of
fog/drizzle tonight through tomorrow morning, however not
expecting any dense fog development overnight tonight. Patchy
dense fog development may be possible around daybreak as precip
comes to an end. Otherwise, a soggy night on tap with an
additional 0.50 to 0.75 inches of rain possible.

Previous discussion...
A band of rain has developed to our southwest this afternoon on
the northern fringe of low-level isentropic ascent across the
central Mid-Atlantic. A weak perturbation apparent on moisture-
channel imagery and simulated reasonably well by the NAM Nest
and GFS is aiding in larger- scale lift with this band. Forecast
soundings depicting a favorable environment for meteorological
soup (i.e., fog/drizzle/mist) to follow the band of rain through
much of the evening. A potent vort max in the Midwest will
begin to surge eastward this evening while a second predecessor
vort max lifts northeastward through the Mid- Atlantic.
Substantial differential cyclonic vorticity advection will
develop downstream of these perturbations. More widespread light
to moderate rain should break out late this evening into the
overnight hours as a result. Model consensus favors the 03z to
11z window for the most widespread/steadiest rain. Have also
included the mention of fog/drizzle through the overnight hours,
as the rain will likely intermittently lessen, allowing
visibilities to lower.

Main forecast challenge is precipitation type in the Poconos.
Temperatures have held near freezing at Mount Pocono (a bit
lower than forecast). Though dew points have increased to around
32 in this area, suspect there will be some cooling as the
first precip band moves through. Combined with the
stubborn/shallow cold air in place, think some mention of
freezing rain is appropriate in these areas, though chances are
not high owing to the marginal surface temperatures.
Additionally, the precipitation may be more drizzly than rainy
after the first band moves through. The bottom line is that
freezing drizzle/rain cannot be ruled out in the far northern
CWA, but societal impacts should be minimal owing to the small
time window (temperatures will slowly warm overnight) and near-
freezing antecedent conditions.

Other challenge is QPF, with the latest multi-model consensus
generally trending downward somewhat. Though QPF may exceed an
inch in spots (especially north of I-76), the duration of the
rain looks fairly long, so the flooding potential would be muted
by this. Nevertheless, soils are cold and saturated, and
streams/rivers are running high, so hydro concerns remain
despite the expected evolution of the event.

As alluded to above, temperatures will be steady or slowly
rising during the overnight hours, with perhaps a stronger rise
occurring near daybreak in the southern CWA as the residual cold
air becomes increasingly scoured in the developing
southeasterly/southerly surface flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Precipitation should trend lighter and more showery on Sunday,
but the area may remain in veritable soup for much of the day
owing to light winds and substantial near-surface moisture.
Despite winds becoming more southerly/southwesterly with time
(especially south of the Mason-Dixon Line), suspect that models
are too aggressively mixing the boundary layer out with time.
Statistical output looks pessimistic, which certainly agrees
with past experience in these "day-after" patterns.

The GFS produces some showery precipitation across the area
during the afternoon as the cold front makes its approach to the
area, but the NAM is substantially drier. This looks tied to
the position of the main vort max to the west, with the NAM much
farther west with the perturbation Sunday afternoon. Hi-res
guidance seems to favor the farther west position, but I have
kept slight-to-chance PoPs through the afternoon in deference to
the GFS.

With the expectation of increased cloudiness and potential
lingering impacts of fog/drizzle/light rain in the morning, I
reduced highs by 2-4 degrees from the previous forecast. It is
still going to be warm (very warm) as the CWA becomes entrenched
in the warm sector of the surface low to the west- northwest,
though. An obvious caveat is that if the cloudiness diminishes
more quickly than currently forecast, max temps for Sunday will
be higher than forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Sunday night through Tuesday...

To start the period Sunday night, a broad area of low pressure
will be moving through Ontario with an associated upper level
trough over the Great Lakes. As this low moves north and east a
weak cold front will cross the area through Sunday evening
bringing the chance for some scattered showers...mainly across
New Jersey and southern parts of the Delmarva. Since the front
won't be that strong, temps will remain fairly mild with
overnight lows mainly in the 40s to around 50.

Monday is shaping up to be a dry day with variable cloud cover
as the region remains situated between the first front offshore
and a stronger cold front that will approach late in the day.
Ahead of this second front temps remain fairly mild with highs
mainly in the 50s except near 60 across the Delmarva and in the
40s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ. The second, stronger
cold front crosses the area Monday evening followed by breezy
northerly winds in its wake lasting into Tuesday. Highs Tuesday
will be only in the 30s N/W of the I-95 corridor with low to mid
40s elsewhere under mainly sunny skies.

Tuesday night through Saturday...

Relatively quiet but generally chilly through most of this
period as eastern Canada and the NE US continue to be dominated
by a mean upper level trough. We'll still have to keep an eye on
a coastal storm likely to form and remain at sea later Tuesday
night into Wednesday. For now, only have slight chance POPs
along the coast but this could still change. Lows Tuesday night
will be in the 20s with highs Wednesday in the 30s to near 40.
High pressure with dry weather and seasonally chilly temps
should otherwise dominate through most of the remainder of next
week into early next weekend. The next storm system could effect
the area by the middle to latter part of next weekend but it's
much too early to have any confidence on the details of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Conditions lowering to IFR with the arrival of
additional rain this evening. East to southeast wind 5 to 10
knots. There is the potential for low level wind shear at KMIV
and KACY around daybreak.

Sunday...Mainly IFR conditions with rain tapering to showers
and drizzle in the morning. There is the potential for some
improvement to MVFR after 21Z but it is not high confidence that
it will occur. Wind mainly southerly around 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...
Sunday night thru Thu...Mostly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters
from 7 pm this evening through Sunday night. There may be two
periods of stronger winds...one tonight as the rain moves
through and then another Sunday afternoon as the flow becomes
southwesterly.

For Delaware Bay, winds should predominantly stay below
advisory criteria, but there is a window tonight into Sunday
morning in which the east-southeast winds may channel into the
lower portions of the bay, leading to marginal advisory criteria
being reached/exceeded. Should confidence increase in this
scenario, an advisory may be required.

Regarding the precipitation, rain should develop tonight.
However, periods of time will feature more drizzle and/or fog
than rain. Visibility restrictions are likely and may linger
through much of the day Sunday. However, rain should become more
showery with time, and the threat of fog may diminish during
the afternoon.

Outlook...
Low end SCA conditions may persist into Mon night, but then
mostly sub-SCA for Tue/Wed. Few showers Sun/Sun night then Fair.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The storm total QPF forecast is for an additional 0.5 to 1.0
inches of rain, with the heaviest falling over the I95 corridor
north of Trenton (NE NJ). Most of the rain is expected to fall
overnight tonight. With the ground being so wet, runoff will be
efficient, meaning water will pond quickly, poor-drainage
flooding will likely occur, and fast responding creeks and
streams will rise.

Runoff will make it into the larger rivers on Sunday and Monday
causing water levels to rise as well. If the rain comes to
fruition portions of the Passaic River will remain in flood into
early next week. All of our Raritan basin forecast points have
dropped below FS, but renewed rises can be expected early next
week. Water levels exceeding FS once again cannot be ruled out.
While rises will also occur on the Lehigh River, Schuylkill
River and Rancocas Creek, they are not expected to return to
levels above FS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal departures along the coasts of New Jersey and Delaware
were in the +0.7 to +1.1 foot range this afternoon. An onshore
wind of 10 to 20 knots tonight should cause the departures to
increase a bit. It will take values in the +1.7 to +2.0 range to
result in spotty minor flooding, which we are anticipating with
the overnight high tide along the oceanfront and on Delaware
Bay. The flooding should not be impactful or widespread enough
to warrant an advisory. Unlike last Saturday night, we are not
dealing with a rapidly intensifying surface low. Incidentally,
high tide on the oceanfront is around 3:00 to 3:30 AM.

The tidal Delaware River is also expected to experience spotty
minor flooding this evening and especially again with the Sunday
morning high tide. The influx of fresh water from the Delaware
River and its tributaries will continue to result in high water
levels. While we may need an advisory for the tidal Delaware
River on Sunday morning, we have some time to monitor trends
before potentially issuing the product overnight.

It continues to appear as though water levels will not be an
issue along the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ450>455.

&&

Synopsis...Fitzsimmons
Near Term...CMS/Staarmann
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Fitzsimmons
Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Iovino
Marine...CMS/Fitzsimmons
Hydrology...
Tides/Coastal Flooding...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1000 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ060>062-071-103>106-030300-
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Philadelphia-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
1000 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rain, heavy at times, could cause minor flooding on small streams
and in poor drainage areas, especially in locations where the ground
is still saturated from heavy rain last week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-030300-
Sussex-Carbon-Monroe-
1000 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The rain could be heavy at times leading to flooding along small
streams and in poor drainage areas, especially in locations where the
ground is still saturated from heavy rain last week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>027-PAZ070-101-102-030300-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
1000 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, southern New
Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-030300-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
1000 PM EST Sat Dec 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.