Areal Flood Warning 131, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

200 
WGUS41 KPHI 292011
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
311 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2018

NJC011-033-300230-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-181230T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
311 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  North central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  East central Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 930 PM EST Saturday.

* At 309 PM EST, the level of the Maurice River continued to rise, 
  but will likely crest later this evening or overnight. Minor 
  flooding is expected through tonight on the Maurice River and its 
  tributaries upstream from Union Lake.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
  Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

Robertson

747 
WGUS81 KPHI 300111
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
811 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2018

NJC011-033-300230-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-181230T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
811 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2018

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL CUMBERLAND AND EAST CENTRAL SALEM COUNTIES...

At 807 PM EST, the Maurice River at Norma is at 4.20 feet, above 
flood stage of 4.00 feet, and continues to slowly rise. The river 
will crest late tonight or in the pre-dawn hours early Sunday 
morning. Minor flooding continues tonight on the Maurice River and 
its tributaries upstream from Union Lake.

Some locations that could experience flooding include... 
Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and 
Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

MPS

660 
WGUS41 KPHI 300213
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
913 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2018

NJC011-033-300830-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-181230T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
913 PM EST SAT DEC 29 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  North central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  East central Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 330 AM EST Sunday.

* At 911 PM EST, the Maurice River at Norma is at 4.21 feet, above 
  flood stage of 4.00 feet, and continues to slowly rise. The river 
  will crest during the overnight hours late tonight. Minor flooding 
  continues tonight on the Maurice River and its tributaries 
  upstream from Union Lake.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
  Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

MPS

492 
WGUS41 KPHI 300823
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
323 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

NJC011-033-301430-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-181230T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
323 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  North central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  East central Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 930 AM EST Sunday.

* At 320 AM EST, the Maurice River at Norma remained above flood 
  stage and continues to rise slowly. The river is expected to crest 
  later today. Minor flooding will continue on the Maurice River and 
  its tributaries upstream from Union Lake.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
  Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

CMS

122 
WGUS41 KPHI 301427
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

NJC011-033-302030-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-181230T2030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
927 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

The National Weather Service in MOUNT HOLLY NJ  has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  North central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  East central Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 330 PM EST Sunday.

* At 924 AM EST, the Maurice River at Norma remained above flood 
  stage and continues to rise slowly. The river is expected to crest 
  later today. Minor flooding will continue on the Maurice River and 
  its tributaries upstream from Union Lake.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
  Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All 
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

AMC

741 
WGUS41 KPHI 302008
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
308 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

NJC011-033-310230-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-181231T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
308 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  North central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  East central Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 930 PM EST Sunday.

* At 305 PM EST, the Maurice River at Norma remains above flood 
  stage and will crest by early this evening. Minor flooding will 
  continue on the Maurice River and its tributaries upstream from 
  Union Lake.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include... 
  Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and 
  Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

MPS

070 
WGUS81 KPHI 310002
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
702 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

NJC011-033-310230-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-181231T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
702 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EST FOR NORTH
CENTRAL CUMBERLAND AND EAST CENTRAL SALEM COUNTIES...

At 701 PM EST, the Maurice River at Norma remains above flood stage 
and is cresting. Minor flooding will continue on the Maurice River 
and its tributaries upstream from Union Lake.

Some locations that could experience flooding include...
Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

MPS

212 
WGUS41 KPHI 310219
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
919 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

NJC011-033-310830-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-181231T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
919 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  North central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  East central Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 330 AM EST Monday.

* At 916 PM EST, the Maurice River at Norma remains above flood 
  stage, but has crested and is now slowly subsiding. The river may 
  fall below flood stage sometime late Monday or Monday night. 
  Additional rainfall Monday and Monday night may result in 
  additional rises, however. Minor flooding will continue on the 
  Maurice River and its tributaries upstream from Union Lake.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
  Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

MPS

901 
WGUS41 KPHI 310544
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1244 AM EST MON DEC 31 2018

NJC011-033-010830-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-190101T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
1244 AM EST MON DEC 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  North central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  East central Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 330 AM EST Tuesday.

* At 1240 AM EST, minor flooding continued along the upper Maurice 
  River, above Union Lake, and on its tributaries. While water 
  levels are expected to fall slowly today, another round of 
  rainfall from late today into tonight may cause the river level to 
  begin rising again at that time.

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
  Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

Iovino

011 
WGUS81 KPHI 311145
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
645 AM EST MON DEC 31 2018

NJC011-033-010830-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-190101T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
645 AM EST MON DEC 31 2018

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL CUMBERLAND AND EAST CENTRAL SALEM COUNTIES...

At 645 AM EST, minor flooding continued along the upper Maurice 
River, above Union Lake, and on its tributaries. While water levels 
are expected to fall slowly today, another round of rainfall from 
late today into tonight may cause the river level to begin rising 
again at that time.

Some locations that could experience flooding include...
Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

Iovino

267 
WGUS81 KPHI 311946
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
246 PM EST MON DEC 31 2018

NJC011-033-010830-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-190101T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
246 PM EST MON DEC 31 2018

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
NORTH CENTRAL CUMBERLAND AND EAST CENTRAL SALEM COUNTIES...

At 245 PM EST, minor flooding continued along the upper Maurice 
River, above Union Lake, and on its tributaries. While water levels 
are slowly falling this afternoon, additional rainfall through 
tonight may cause the river level to begin rising once again.

Some locations that could experience flooding include...
Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

Gorse

080 
WGUS41 KPHI 010331
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1031 PM EST MON DEC 31 2018

NJC011-033-011430-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-190101T1430Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
1031 PM EST MON DEC 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  North central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  East central Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 930 AM EST Tuesday.

* At 1026 PM EST, minor flooding was still occuring along the upper 
  Maurice River, above Union Lake, and on its tributaries. 
  Additional rainfall Monday night is expected to slow the recession 
  of water levels in the area, and may even produce renewed rises, 
  depending on how much rain actually falls.  

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
  Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

jjm

401 
WGUS41 KPHI 011420
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
920 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2019

NJC011-033-012330-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-190101T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
920 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2019

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  North central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  East central Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 630 PM EST Tuesday.

* At 916 AM EST, minor flooding continues along the upper Maurice 
  River, above Union Lake, and on its tributaries. Last night's rain 
  has slowed the rate of fall on the river. It appears now that the 
  river will remain above flodd stage the rest of the daylight hours 
  today. Flood stage at Norma is 4.0 feet. 

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
  Centerton.

No additional rainfall is expected today. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions immediately.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

PO

233 
WGUS41 KPHI 012324
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
624 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2019

NJC011-033-020530-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0131.000000T0000Z-190102T0530Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Cumberland NJ-Salem NJ-
624 PM EST TUE JAN 1 2019

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  North central Cumberland County in southern New Jersey...
  East central Salem County in southern New Jersey...

* Until 1230 AM EST Wednesday.

* At 619 PM EST, the stage of the Maurice River at Norma was 4.0 
  feet and falling slowly. Flood stage at Norma is 4 feet. Water 
  levels along the Maurice River will continue to fall during the 
  overnight hours. The purpose of extending this flood warning until 
  early Wednesday morning is to provide time for water downstream 
  from Norma to drain before the warning is cancelled. 

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Vineland, Millville, Elmer, Olivet, South Vineland, Rosenhayn and
  Centerton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring. All
interested parties should take necessary precautions.

&&

LAT...LON 3954 7503 3937 7502 3935 7513 3953 7519
      3963 7516

$$

jjm

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
633 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front that passed through eastern Pennsylvania,
northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey during the night
will move farther out to sea today. High pressure approaching
from the northwest and west is forecast to pass across our
region on Sunday. Low pressure is expected to move from the
Mississippi River Valley on Monday morning to New England and
Canada's Maritime Provinces on Tuesday. The low should pull a
cold front through our region on Tuesday morning. High pressure
is anticipated to follow for the mid week period. Another low
may approach from the southwest or south late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 am update: Fog is dissipating rapidly as winds become a
little bit more westerly, bringing in a surge of cooler/drier
air. Dense fog advisory was allowed to expire. Temperatures are
beginning to fall but may become somewhat steady or even rise a
bit as diurnal heating commences. However, cold advection will
likely win out, with the aid of a stratocumulus deck expected to
develop/move in later today. Forecast is in good shape for now;
just made some minor adjustments to temps/dew points to match
obs/trends.

Previous discussion...

Precipitation has moved well offshore, but only after another
widespread 1 to 2 inches fell across most of the area south of
I-78. The region remains generally east of the colder/drier air,
which is slowly making progress across the Appalachians at this
time. From objective surface analyses, it appears two near-
surface theta-e gradients exist. The first is entering the
northwestern CWA at this time, with temperatures/dew points
noticeably lower in the Lehigh Valley and southern Poconos.
However, dew point depressions remain low in this regime. So
aside from about a 5-8 degree temperature drop, this first
gradient appears not to be too effective in scouring out the fog
that has developed across the area. The second gradient is
straddling the central portion of Pennsylvania (north-to-
south), and this is where the much drier air is located (along
with much stronger cold advection).

The models project this second gradient making steady progress
this morning, likely near the urban corridor around 12z and
offshore by around 15z or so. Until then, expect some low
clouds/fog to persist in the relatively calm and very warm/moist
near-surface air. The dense fog advisory is set to expire at 4
am, but this may require extension for portions of the area
given several observations in Berks and Chester Counties
southward to the eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay indicating
dense fog continuing. However, the fog has eroded somewhat on
the eastern side, so the advisory for Delaware County in PA and
the Delaware counties will likely be allowed to expire as
scheduled.

Once the cold advection starts in earnest later this morning,
temperatures are expected to remain steady or fall slowly
thereafter. Winds will also pick up, likely acquiring 25 to 35
mph gusts at times through the afternoon. With residual surface
moisture and strong mixing via the deepening cold advection,
expecting a stratocumulus deck to develop across much of the
area (but especially northwest of Philly). Upstream observations
and satellite imagery appear quite pessimistic in this regard
today, so increased sky cover somewhat through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The midlevel flow becomes quasi-zonal tonight, with a weak
perturbation moving across the northern Mid-Atlantic. At the
surface, a ridge axis will progress to near the East Coast late,
which will allow winds to drop off fairly quickly near/after
sunset. However, given a strong jet streak aloft and some weak
ascent downstream of the aforementioned perturbation, think that
cloud cover at various heights will be present for much of the
night. The GFS is indicating some light precipitation to our
northwest in proximity to the vort max, but the NAM is somewhat
slower (i.e., farther west). Not seeing a lot of reason to
include mention of PoPs at this point, since the strongest lift
is not in our CWA, the perturbation is weak to begin with, and
there is little (deep) moisture for the vort max to work with.

Main forecast challenge is temperatures, with the ultimate
result being dependent on degree/duration of cloud cover. Chose
to raise temperatures a couple degrees from the previous
forecast given the expectation of increased cloud cover
inhibiting nocturnal radiational cooling. Generally used a blend
of statistical guidance, which appeared quite reasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The mid level pattern is expected to be somewhat zonal across
the northern states on Sunday morning. A ridge is forecast to
build over the east on Monday, resulting in a trend toward
milder temperatures and an increase in moisture. The ridge is
anticipated to flatten again for the mid and late week periods.
Our region should be under the influence of the northern branch
of the mid level flow. However, the southern branch is not
expected to be far to our south at that time and it will bring
the chance of some precipitation.

At the surface, high pressure is forecast to drift eastward
across our region on Sunday bringing dry weather and near
seasonable temperatures.

Low pressure is anticipated to move from the Middle Mississippi
River Valley on Monday, across the eastern Great Lakes on
Monday night to New England and Canada's Maritime Provinces on
Tuesday. A moist and mild flow from the southeast to southwest
is expected to develop for Monday and Monday night. Temperatures
are expected to rise into the 40s and 50s on Monday with rain
arriving from the west and southwest. The rain will likely
continue into Monday night with temperatures rising a bit at
that time. The rain may become heavy at times from late Monday
afternoon into Monday evening, mainly across eastern
Pennsylvania, and northern and central New Jersey.

The low is expected to pull a cold front through our region on
Tuesday morning bringing and end to the precipitation. However,
the cold air should lag a bit behind the front and mild
temperatures are again in the forecast for New Year's Day. Highs
should range from the upper 40s in the Poconos to the middle
60s in southern Delaware.

High pressure should bring dry weather and a return to
seasonable temperatures on Wednesday.

The forecast for Thursday and Friday remains a bit uncertain.
There is low confidence in how far north moisture will progress.
The ECMWF is more aggressive than the GFS at this point. For
now, we will mention a chance of rain and snow. Temperatures
should remain near normal for early January.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR, though expecting a stratocumulus deck to develop
rather quickly from northwest to southeast. CIGs expected to be
between 3000 and 5000 feet. West-northwest winds increasing to
10 to 20 kts with higher gusts. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...VFR CIGs (4000-5000 feet) with west-northwest winds
diminishing to 10 kts or less. Moderate confidence.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Northwest to southwest wind 10 knots or
less.

Sunday night...Mainly VFR. Variable wind 6 knots or less.

Monday...Conditions lowering to MVFR and IFR in the afternoon
as rain arrives from the west and southwest. Southeast to south
wind 5 to 10 knots.

Monday night...MVFR and IFR in rain. South to southwest wind 10
to 15 knots.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. West wind 10 to 15 knots.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 5 to
10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds early this morning are well below advisory criteria, but
seas on the Atlantic waters remain elevated (generally 5 to 7
feet). As winds become more west to northwest this morning, they
should pick up again to marginal advisory criteria across all
the waters. Thus, the small craft advisory remains in effect for
the Atlantic waters until 6 pm, as seas will remain elevated
this morning before the winds pick up.

However, for Delaware Bay, conditions will likely be below
criteria (since waves are lower than 5 feet) through mid-
morning. Decided to change the advisory here for a start time of
8 am, and even this may be generous. Winds are expected to pick
up to at least marginal advisory criteria late this morning into
this afternoon.

By this evening, winds and seas will lower below advisory
thresholds.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday through Monday...No marine headlines are anticipated.

Monday night...South to southwest wind gusting to 25 or 30
knots.

Tuesday...West wind gusting to 25 knots, especially in the
morning.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...No marine headlines are
anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for
     ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431.

&&

Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...CMS
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...CMS/Iovino
Marine...CMS/Iovino

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
600 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-301100-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
600 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-301100-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
600 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
105 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

PAZ054-055-061-062-103-105-290900-
Carbon-Monroe-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Allentown,
Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,
and Perkasie
105 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

...Locally dense fog through the overnight hours...

Webcams and surface observations continue to indicate locally
dense fog in portions of the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley.
Motorists are advised to use caution traveling across the area
tonight. Expect rapid reductions in visibility. Use low-beam
headlights, and maintain extra distance from other vehicles.

CMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
339 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

DEZ001-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ061-062-070-071-103>106-291100-
New Castle-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Mercer-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Newton, Washington,
Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
339 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

...Locally dense fog through late tonight...

Webcams and surface observations indicate patchy dense fog has
developed across the area. Although visibilities are primarily
around or above a mile, localized reductions to a quarter mile
have been reported. Motorists are urged to use caution driving
early this morning. Be prepared for rapid changes in visibility.
Slow down, use low-beam headlights, and maintain extra distance
from other vehicles.

CMS

Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
405 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

DEZ001-NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ061-062-070-071-103>106-291100-
New Castle-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Mercer-Lehigh-Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Wilmington, Newton, Washington,
Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, New Brunswick, Trenton,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Media, Philadelphia, Collegeville,
Pottstown, Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
405 AM EST Sat Dec 29 2018

...Locally dense fog through early this morning...

Webcams and surface observations indicate patchy dense fog has
developed across the area. Although visibilities are primarily
around or above a mile, localized reductions to a quarter mile
have been reported. Motorists are urged to use caution driving
early this morning. Be prepared for rapid changes in visibility.
Slow down, use low-beam headlights, and maintain extra distance
from other vehicles.

CMS