Areal Flood Warning 115, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
353 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to slowly drift into northern New
England today and tonight, before moving into the Canadian
Maritimes Wednesday into Wednesday night. Meanwhile, high
pressure will build out of the central part of the country
today, then across the southeast states Wednesday into Thursday.
This high may nose into our area Thursday into Thursday night,
before a sequence of frontal boundaries and low pressure systems
move across the area Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The low pressure system that brought the rainy conditions on
Monday will continue to drift northward into New England through
today. Meanwhile, high pressure builds across the central part
of the country. In between the low to our north and the high to
our west, a tight pressure gradient will remain across our
region. This will keep gusty west to northwest winds across the
area today. Winds will be gusting 25 to 35 mph through today.
Also, with the west to northwest flow, there will continue to be
the chance for some lake effect showers to reach our higher
elevations across northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey
today as there will remain enhanced moisture wrapping around
the low and several short wave/vorticity impulses circling the
mid-level low located to our northeast as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
The low will continue to slowly drift northward farther into
New England tonight. This keeps the west to northwest flow
across the area, which will continue to be gusty through the
night. There will continue to be a chance for lake effect
showers across portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern
New Jersey, although they may reach a little farther south
overnight as the enhanced moisture and lift sink a little
farther south for a period overnight. Some light accumulations
are possible, especially across the higher elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gusty conditions continue into Wednesday as the pressure
gradient tightens even more across the area as the low pressure
to our north shifts offshore and high pressure builds across the
southeast states. The west to northwest winds are expected to
gust 30-40 mph, with even higher gusts occasionally near 45 mph
possible. Lake effect snow showers will continue across portions
of northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey on Wednesday.
In fact, it would not be surprising to see some heavier snow
showers/squalls on Wednesday as there will be enhanced low-mid
level lapse rates combined with enhanced moisture across the
area during the day.

The gradient weakens some overnight Wednesday as the low moves
farther away from the area into the Canadian Maritimes, and high
pressure begins to build across the southeast states. The gusts
will diminish through the night, but there will still be a
steady breeze through the night. There could continue to be some
lake effect showers into the evening, but the chances diminish
overnight as the moisture lifts northward.

By Thursday and Thursday night, high pressure will be centered
across the southeast coast. This high will nose its way into our
area on Thursday and Thursday night, which will bring dry
conditions. Gusty winds will continue through the day Thursday
with gusts 20-25 mph possible, but winds will begin to diminish
overnight.

A weak and fast moving shortwave trough is expected to cross
the region late Friday. Guidance has been consistent with
indicating that this feature will bring a quick round of light
rain showers across our area.

By Saturday, another upper trough digging across the Plains will
develop another large area of low pressure across the Ohio Valley.
This will be the next big rain-maker for our area. Guidance varies
on the exact timing and extent of the precip at this time, however
it is noteworthy that the 12z ECMWF has sped up this system and is
now more in line with the GFS timing wise. Rain will overspread the
area as early as Saturday afternoon and last at least through Sunday
evening. Looks like this may be more of a lighter precip rate, but
longer duration event unlike the last few systems we've experienced.
Highs Sunday are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s across much
of the area and nearing 60 degrees for the southern half of the area.

Another system appears to be fast on the heels of the weekend system
leading to more unsettled weather early next week, however there is
still a good deal of uncertainty regarding the evolution of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Mostly VFR conditions will begin the day, except
occasionally MVFR ceilings occuring at ABE, and possible RDG early
this morning. Ceilings may lower to MVFR for all areas later this
morning into this afternoon as moisture collects near the low level
inversion.

Winds will remain out of the west to northwest and increase to 10-15
knots, with gusts increasing to 20 to 30 knots.

Tonight...Generally VFR conditions are expected through tonight,
although occasionally spots of MVFR ceilings would not be
surprising. Winds will remain out of the west to northwest with
gusts 20 to 25 knots expected.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mostly VFR conditions expected. West to northwest winds
expected to gust 25 to 35 knots.

Wednesday night...Mostly VFR conditions expected to continue. Wind
gusts diminish overnight, although a steady breeze is expected.

Thursday-Thursday night...Generally VFR conditions expected.
Winds may gust 15 to 20 knots during the day Thursday.

Friday...Generally VFR, but lowering conditions later in the day
with a chance of showers.

Friday night-Saturday...Conditions begin to lower Friday night
to MVFR or IFR and continue into Saturday with increasing rain
chances.

&&

.MARINE...
The Gale Warning remains in effect as winds are expected to
increase to 35 knots this morning across the waters. It is
possible that winds will begin to diminish some during the day
below gale force, so the warning may be able to end early.
However, winds will still be gusting near 30 knots through
tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Wednesday...Gale Watch in effect as wind gusts are expected to
increase to 35 to 40 knots.

Wednesday night...Gale force winds likely to continue into
Wednesday night.

Thursday...Small Craft Advisory conditions likely to remain
across the waters.

Thursday night...Conditions expected to lower below advisory
levels.

Friday-Saturday...Conditions expected to remain below advisory
levels with increasing chances of rainfall.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Tidal flooding winding down given offshore flow now, however there
are still a few places we continue to monitor.

On Barnegat Bay, tidal flooding continues due to the combination of
fresh water runoff and salt water build up in the bay during
multiple high tide cycles. Looks like the high tide cycle through
midday will continue to result in mainly minor flooding. Since it is
more localized, opted to extend the coastal flood statement through
early this afternoon for now.

On the tidal portions of the Delaware River, both Philadelphia and
Burlington were running higher than forecast. The ETSS looks to be
doing better, therefore adjusted the forecast based on this
guidance. Fresh water tributaries to the Delaware River continue to
run high with the recent heavy rain, which can enhance the water
level with the high tide cycles although west-northwest winds should
help push the water out some. As of now, Philadelphia is forecast to
fall short of advisory criteria with Burlington reaching it later
this afternoon. Given lower confidence, opted to not issue a Coastal
Flood Advisory at this time.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for ANZ430-431-450>455.
     Gale Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ430-431.

&&

Synopsis...Robertson/Staarmann
Near Term...Robertson
Short Term...Robertson
Long Term...Robertson/Staarmann
Aviation...Robertson/Staarmann
Marine...Robertson/Staarmann
Tides/Coastal Flooding...Gorse

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
402 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106-280915-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-
Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
402 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ450>455-280915-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
402 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-280915-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
402 AM EST Tue Nov 27 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.