Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Areal Flood Advisories in 2018

Areal Flood Advisory 7, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

February 4, 20184 states

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this areal flood advisory at Feb 4, 2018, 6:01 PM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 4, 2018, 6:01 PM EST (23:01 UTC)
Expired
Feb 4, 2018, 10:00 PM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties New Castle County, DE, Cecil County, MD, Kent County, MD, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA

The radar

The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 161 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2018-02-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2018-02-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 264 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2169 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
264 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
357 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

345 
WGUS81 KPHI 042301
FLSPHI

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
601 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

DEC003-MDC015-029-NJC005-007-015-033-PAC017-029-045-091-101-050300-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0007.180204T2301Z-180205T0300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Kent MD-Cecil MD-Salem NJ-Camden NJ-Gloucester NJ-
Burlington NJ-Montgomery PA-Bucks PA-Chester PA-Philadelphia PA-
Delaware PA-
601 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a

* Flood Advisory for Minor Flooding in Poor Drainage Areas for...
  New Castle County in northern Delaware...
  Northeastern Kent County in northeastern Maryland...
  Cecil County in northeastern Maryland...
  Salem County in southern New Jersey...
  Camden County in southern New Jersey...
  Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
  Northwestern Burlington County in southern New Jersey...
  Southeastern Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  South central Bucks County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Philadelphia County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
  Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 1000 PM EST

* At 557 PM EST...Doppler radar indicated an area of moderate to 
  heavy rain that will cause minor flooding moving through the 
  Delaware Valley and along the I-95 corridor through southern New 
  Jersey. Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor 
  flooding in the advisory area. Up to an inch of rain can be 
  expected with locally higher amounts. 

* Some locations that could experience flooding include...
  Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, West Chester,
  Elkton, Gloucester City, Calvert, Cherry Hill, Bensalem, Evesham,
  Mount Laurel, Chester, Willingboro, Deptford, Voorhees, Medford,
  West Deptford and Glassboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams...urban areas...highways...streets and underpasses
as well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated...or
ponding of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 7499 3986 7461 3926 7586 3926 7588
      3941 7601 3943 7600 3946 7601 3952 7598
      3955 7603 3955 7608 3965 7616 3967 7619

$$

MPS
4 follow-up statements
524 
WGUS81 KPHI 050036
FLSPHI

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
736 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

DEC003-MDC015-029-NJC005-007-015-033-PAC017-029-045-091-101-050300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180205T0300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Kent MD-Cecil MD-Salem NJ-Camden NJ-Gloucester NJ-
Burlington NJ-Montgomery PA-Bucks PA-Chester PA-Philadelphia PA-
Delaware PA-
736 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST FOR NEW CASTLE...NORTHEASTERN
KENT...CECIL...SALEM...CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...NORTHWESTERN
BURLINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTH CENTRAL BUCKS...
SOUTHEASTERN CHESTER...PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE COUNTIES...

At 735 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated moderate to heavy rain that 
will cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will 
result in minor flooding in the advisory area. Around one-half inch 
of rain has already fallen, and an additional quarter to a third of 
an inch of rain is expected through this evening.

Some locations that could experience flooding include...
Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, West Chester,
Elkton, Gloucester City, Calvert, Cherry Hill, Bensalem, Evesham,
Mount Laurel, Chester, Willingboro, Deptford, Voorhees, Medford, West
Deptford and Glassboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 4027 7499 3986 7461 3926 7586 3926 7588
      3941 7601 3943 7600 3946 7601 3952 7598
      3955 7603 3955 7608 3965 7616 3967 7619

$$

MPS
447 
WGUS81 KPHI 050107
FLSPHI

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
807 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

DEC003-MDC015-NJC033-PAC029-050116-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180205T0300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Cecil MD-Salem NJ-Chester PA-
807 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS HAS
BEEN CANCELLED FOR NEW CASTLE...CECIL...SALEM AND SOUTHEASTERN
CHESTER COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. THEREFORE, THE FLOODING THREAT HAS ENDED. 

LAT...LON 3938 7578 3955 7557 3973 7554 3973 7538
      3988 7559 4007 7540 4027 7499 3986 7461
      3962 7513 3969 7532 3950 7551 3961 7543
      3961 7544 3954 7554 3944 7549 3942 7554
      3954 7558 3926 7588 3937 7598

$$

MDC029-NJC005-007-015-PAC017-045-091-101-050300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180205T0300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kent MD-Camden NJ-Gloucester NJ-Burlington NJ-Montgomery PA-Bucks PA-
Philadelphia PA-Delaware PA-
807 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST FOR
NORTHEASTERN KENT...CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTH CENTRAL BUCKS...PHILADELPHIA AND
DELAWARE COUNTIES...

At 806 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated moderate to heavy rain that 
will cause minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will 
result in minor flooding in the advisory area. Up to one-half inch 
of rain has fallen, and an additional quarter to a third of an 
inch of rain will fall.

Some locations that could experience flooding include...
Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, Middletown, Gloucester City, Cherry
Hill, Bensalem, Evesham, Mount Laurel, Chester, Willingboro,
Deptford, Voorhees, Medford, West Deptford, Glassboro, Lindenwold,
Pennsville, Lumberton and Bellmawr.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 3938 7578 3955 7557 3973 7554 3973 7538
      3988 7559 4007 7540 4027 7499 3986 7461
      3962 7513 3969 7532 3950 7551 3961 7543
      3961 7544 3954 7554 3944 7549 3942 7554
      3954 7558 3926 7588 3937 7598

$$

MPS
016 
WGUS81 KPHI 050120
FLSPHI

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
820 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

MDC029-050129-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180205T0300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kent MD-
820 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS HAS
BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN KENT COUNTY...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. THEREFORE, THE FLOODING THREAT HAS ENDED. 

LAT...LON 3973 7538 3988 7559 4007 7540 4027 7499
      3986 7461 3962 7513 3969 7532

$$

NJC005-007-015-PAC017-045-091-101-050300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180205T0300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Camden NJ-Gloucester NJ-Burlington NJ-Montgomery PA-Bucks PA-
Philadelphia PA-Delaware PA-
820 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EST FOR
CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY...SOUTH CENTRAL BUCKS...PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES...

At 819 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain that will cause
minor flooding. Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor
flooding in the advisory area.

Some locations that could experience flooding include...
Philadelphia, Camden, Gloucester City, Cherry Hill, Bensalem,
Evesham, Mount Laurel, Chester, Willingboro, Deptford, Voorhees,
Medford, West Deptford, Glassboro, Lindenwold, Lumberton, Bellmawr,
Yeadon, Woodbury and Burlington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as
well as other drainage areas and low lying spots.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

A Flood Advisory means river or stream flows are elevated, or ponding
of water in urban or other areas is occurring or is imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 7538 3988 7559 4007 7540 4027 7499
      3986 7461 3962 7513 3969 7532

$$

MPS
598 
WGUS81 KPHI 050154
FLSPHI

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
854 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

NJC005-007-015-PAC017-045-091-101-050203-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-180205T0300Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Camden NJ-Gloucester NJ-Burlington NJ-Montgomery PA-Bucks PA-
Philadelphia PA-Delaware PA-
854 PM EST SUN FEB 4 2018

...THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR CAMDEN...GLOUCESTER...
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...SOUTH CENTRAL
BUCKS...PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended, and flooding is no longer expected to pose
a threat.

LAT...LON 3973 7538 3988 7559 4007 7540 4027 7499
      3986 7461 3962 7513 3969 7532

$$

MPS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at Feb 4, 5:24 PM EST, 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 4, 5:24 PM EST, 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
524 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure late today was heading quickly northeast toward
Delaware and southern New Jersey and by midnight will be over
eastern New England. High pressure in the Ohio Valley briefly
builds into the Mid Atlantic states on Monday. A weak cold front
slides southeast into the Delmarva Tuesday evening before stalling.
The front awaits the northeast passage of strengthening low
pressure across the mid Atlantic states late Wednesday. High
pressure follows Thursday into Friday. Complex low pressure and
frontal system will be evolving over the eastern United States
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 520 PM, the Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded
eastward some due to areas of freezing rain. We had several
reports of ongoing light icing due to freezing rain especially
on elevated surfaces. We ran the new part of the advisory also
until 10 PM for now.

Meanwhile, for the southern Poconos snow totals are already
approaching advisory levels here as well, and isolated amounts
may approach 4-6 inches or so in the highest/favored terrain.

The steadiest precipitation will occur between now and about 9
pm or so, and liquid totals look quite decent across the area,
with a good swath of 0.75-1.25 inches likely except in the far
south, where somewhat lower amounts are expected. By this point,
the associated surface low will be rapidly progressing north-
northeast just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Cold advection will
take over in earnest the rest of the night, with gradual
clearing, temperatures falling, and winds turning to the west or
northwest and increasing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Cold advection will be in full swing Monday, with boundary-layer
mixing allowing for gusty winds through the day across the area.
Temperatures will struggle to warm, and I went well below
MAV/MET guidance for highs given their recent warm bias in these
regimes. Notably, Euro MOS has temperatures generally falling
the whole day. This is certainly plausible and did not stray too
far from this evolution through the day.

Skies will probably be clearing through the day, though it will
be prudent to follow the hi-res trends regarding the depth of
boundary-layer mixing and the residual surface moisture. For
now, though, think skies will be mostly sunny by afternoon, but
the colder temperatures and gusty winds will make for a chilly
day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
425 PM update of the 1242 PM long term sections.

Long term Hazards: Appears likely that at the least, advisory
snow and ice is ahead for the region along and north of I-78
between ~10z-22z Wednesday the 7th, with another complex wintry
event possible next weekend. Both events have uncertainty on
precipitation type and amount in this La Nina Ohio Valley
tending storm track, that still is without blocking. Its been a
good winter so far and the snow lovers are wanting more, but
sometimes its not our turn. In this pattern, it is all about
timing timing timing. Is there enough leftover cold air to allow
the front end of storms to produce snow and ice events.
Blocking seems to be needed to pack in the big cold high across
Quebec and assure entire storm to be all wintry pcpn. So
far...no go. Yet...its February, still in the coldest part of
winter.

The blocking potential could change in late February and March,
but often the teleconnection blocking cues modeled beyond day
10, dont pan out as expected. Its still mid winter and February-
early March can be quite productive for snow and ice. We'll see
what happens as the trough at mid and high levels continues to
be modeled to remain in the eastern half of the USA for at least
the next 16 days.

500 MB: A significant long wave trough with associated short waves
heads east from the nations mid section Wednesday, with the trough
reforming westward in the Mississippi Valley next weekend encouraging
another shot of deep layer warm air advection, over possibly
trapped boundary layer cold (models disagree about trapped
boundary layer snow or ice boundary layer profiles).

Temperatures: Calendar day averages should be normal to 5 degrees
below normal on Tuesday through Thursday, 5 to 10 degrees below
normal Friday and warming Saturday and Sunday but we're not
sure how fast. One thing I am noticing is that models are
tending to forecast colder temperatures this week than what we
were seeing in the forecasts in days previous to what we have
used today.

Forecast basis:  Monday night-Tuesday night...a 50 50 blend of the
12z/4 GFS/NAM MOS,  then for Wednesday...the 12z GFS MEXMOS,  and
finally for Thu-next weekend, the 15z/4 WPC guidance serves as the
basis, inclusive of 12 hr pops, day max, night min temps,  and 6
hour sky, sustained wind and dewpoint guidance.

The dailies...

Monday night...Clear then increasing high clouds. High confidence.

Tuesday...a subtle cold frontal passage may be preceded by weak
waa generated light snow or flurries in ne PA during the morning.
Light southwest wind. High confidence.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...A 1/4 to 1 inch qpf event will
affect our region between roughly 10z/7 and 03z/8 with the
front end Wednesday morning and early afternoon, potentially
with significant wintry mess along and north of I78. NAM 12 and
18z/4 cycle snow growth looks very good for the first few hours
Wednesday morning. GFS snow growth is closer to the warm rainy
sector. Eventually, warm air should win out and the rain that
the region from Philly and s NJ and the Delmarva have during
midday, should briefly dominate the north late in the day. A
60-65 kt 850 MB sw jet core is modeled into south central PA at
18z Wed. Thats just too strong to prevent an eventual change to
rain. If the jet weakens or shifts southeastward, then a colder
result will develop. Just dont know yet.

So, its far too early to determine confidently amounts of snow-
sleet, freezing rain except that it could be more important and
more widespread than what occurs today and could affect the
morning commute adversely with lingering impact for the evening
commute tending to be limited to near I-80.

Glaze is a concern of mine in this situation. snow totals and
FRAM generated ice forecasts will post once this current on
going winter wx event ends.

Late Wednesday night...Clearing. northwest wind.

Thursday...Blustery northwest wind with gusts to 30 mph. Maybe
cirrus with the modeled southwesterly 160kt 250mb jet over se
Quebec. Confidence: High.

Friday...We should see a brief return to tranquil weather as the
surface high builds over our area then moves off shore.
Confidence: Moderate to high.

Saturday and Sunday...Another surface low could be taking a similar
track to today's system and the Wednesday system. As noted with the
Wednesday system though, even small shifts in the forecast track
could have big implications on the precipitation type.

This system might also come in two separate events, a first
lead wave Saturday, a break and a cold frontal passage Saturday
evening followed by a second wave of low pressure for late Sunday,
further south than Saturdays and a colder result for Sunday
into Monday? Confidence: MUCH below average on the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Late this afternoon...Conditions deteriorating to MVFR/IFR with
freezing rain at RDG/ABE (transition to rain into early this
evening), then rain at the Philadelphia metro terminals on south
and east. LLWS will continue. Surface winds mostly light east-
northeast, however south-southeast at ACY/MIV where some gusts
will occur. Medium confidence.

Tonight...Sub-VFR through 03Z or so as rain begins to move out.
Then rapid improvement to VFR, though some lingering low
visibilities are possible before winds switch to west or
northwest and increase after midnight. Medium confidence.

Monday...VFR with northwest winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to
30 kts. High confidence.

Outlook...
Monday night...VFR sct-bkn clouds aoa 12000 ft. Light wind. High
confidence.

Tuesday...VFR sct-bkn clouds aoa 8000 ft except a slight chance of
snow showers at KABE and KRDG Tuesday morning. Southwest wind
shifting west at night. High confidence.

Tuesday evening...wind shifting northwest to north and setting the
stage with boundary layer southward developing weak cold air
advection. Confidence: High.

Very late Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR CIGS late Tuesday
night quickly lower to IFR/LIFR as precipitation develops
probably within 3 hours of 12z/7-Wednesday. Low confidence on
precipitation type and timing of lower flight categories but it
appears that snow should occur for several hours during the
morning at KRDG, KABE, KTTN and possibly even at PHL/PNE.
Precipitation should change to rain from south to north in the
afternoon but timing is as yet a uncertain, to say the least!
Lets say by 22z at all TAF sites, probably as mixed sleet
freezing rain at KRDG- KABE for a few hours during the
afternoon. Winds northeast veering to east and southeast by late
in the day, Wednesday. High confidence for the event and average
to below average confidence for ptypes and timing.

Thursday...VFR conditions with a gusty northwest wind 25 to 30
kt, decreasing at night. Confidence...moderate.

Friday...VFR. Confidence...High.

&&

.MARINE...
Latest models have come in a little lower with wind gusts on the
Atlantic waters tonight and Monday, but given the recent trends
with the surface low approaching the area, I think the NAM/GFS
are likely too low with gusts on Delaware Bay and the Atlantic
waters late tonight and Monday. For now, I did not change the
gale warning (in effect from 5 am to 1 pm). A small craft
advisory will be in effect for Upper Delaware Bay from 5 am to 6
pm.

Rain will continue through the marine areas through late this
evening before exiting southwest to northeast between 9 pm and 3
am. Visibility restrictions are likely during the steadiest
rain. Thereafter, dry conditions and gradually clearing skies
are forecast.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday...Winds and seas below SCA criteria
with the northwest wind turning to the southwest by Tuesday.
High confidence.

Tuesday night...wind shifting to north and northeast during the
night. High confidence.

Wednesday....Increasing winds and seas with SCA conditions
likely, especially late in the day. A general northeast to east
flow veering southeast to south late in the day and then
westerly at night.

Thursday...SCA during the day with possible gale force northwest
gusts, and elevated seas on the Atlantic coastal waters.

Friday...No headlines anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     NJZ001-007>009.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ431-450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Monday for ANZ430.

&&

Synopsis...Drag
Near Term...CMS/Gorse
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...Drag
Aviation...CMS/Drag
Marine...CMS/Drag
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 4, 5:22 PM EST, 39 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
522 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

NJZ001-007-PAZ054-055-060>062-052230-
Sussex-Warren-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
522 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey, east
central Pennsylvania and northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Another round of snow or a wintry mix is forecast mainly between
5 AM and 10 PM Wednesday. Snow should be predominant during the
morning and midday hours with a change to sleet or freezing rain
sometime thereafter. There is still considerable uncertainty as to
the amounts of snow and ice, so please continue to monitor the
latest forecast early this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ008-009-PAZ101>106-052230-
Morris-Hunterdon-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
522 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey,
northwest New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

The rain will be moderate to heavy at times this evening causing
ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Snow or a wintry mix is forecast between approximately 5 AM and 5 PM
Wednesday. Most of the snow should be occuring during the morning
and midday hours with a change to sleet or freezing rain expected in
the afternoon and then possibly to non freezing rain by nightfall.
There is still considerable uncertainty as the amounts of snow and
ice, so please continue to monitor the latest forecast early this
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ010-012-015-052230-
Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-
522 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and
northern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rain will be moderate to heavy at times this evening causing ponding
of water in poor drainage areas. Any spotty freezing rain in northern
Somerset County should become non freezing by 8 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Snow or a wintry mix is forecast between approximately 5 AM and 5 PM
Wednesday. Most of the snow should be occuring during the morning
and midday hours with a change to sleet or freezing rain expected in
the afternoon and then possibly to non freezing rain by nightfall.
There is still considerable uncertainty as the amounts of snow and
ice, so please continue to monitor the latest forecast early this
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071-
052230-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cecil-Kent MD-
Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Salem-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-
Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
522 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Rain will be heavy at times through this evening and could result
in pockets of poor drainage street flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ431-450>455-052230-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
522 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

A west to northwest gale may occur late Wednesday night or Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ430-052230-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
522 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a chance for a brief period of northwesterly gale force
gusts late tonight or Monday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A west to northwest gale may occur late Wednesday night or Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 4, 5:06 PM EST, 55 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
506 PM EST SUN FEB 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     FREEZING RAIN    SUSSEX AIRPORT          41.20N  74.62W
02/04/2018  M0.02 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   ASOS

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1800006

WD
Local storm report, Feb 4, 5:08 PM EST, 53 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
508 PM EST SUN FEB 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     FREEZING RAIN    POTTSTOWN AIRPORT       40.24N  75.56W
02/04/2018  M0.04 INCH       MONTGOMERY         PA   ASOS

            RADIAL GLAZE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1800007

WD
Local storm report, Feb 4, 5:11 PM EST, 50 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
511 PM EST SUN FEB 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     FREEZING RAIN    READING REGIONAL AIRPOR 40.38N  75.97W
02/04/2018  M0.02 INCH       BERKS              PA   ASOS

            RADIAL GLAZE

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1800008

WD
Local storm report, Feb 4, 5:14 PM EST, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
514 PM EST SUN FEB 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     FREEZING RAIN    LEHIGH VALLEY INTL AIRP 40.65N  75.44W
02/04/2018  M0.04 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   ASOS

            RADIAL GLAZE

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1800009

WD
Local storm report, Feb 4, 5:28 PM EST, 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
528 PM EST SUN FEB 04 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     FREEZING RAIN    SUSSEX AIRPORT          41.20N  74.62W
02/04/2018  M0.02 INCH       SUSSEX             NJ   ASOS

            RADIAL GLAZE

0508 PM     FREEZING RAIN    POTTSTOWN AIRPORT       40.24N  75.56W
02/04/2018  M0.04 INCH       MONTGOMERY         PA   ASOS

            RADIAL GLAZE.

0510 PM     FREEZING RAIN    READING REGIONAL AIRPOR 40.38N  75.97W
02/04/2018  M0.02 INCH       BERKS              PA   ASOS

            RADIAL GLAZE

0513 PM     FREEZING RAIN    LEHIGH VALLEY INTL AIRP 40.65N  75.44W
02/04/2018  M0.04 INCH       LEHIGH             PA   ASOS

            RADIAL GLAZE

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1800006 PHI1800007 PHI1800008 PHI1800009

WD
Special weather statement, Feb 4, 5:32 PM EST, 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
532 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

NJZ001-007>009-PAZ060>062-101>106-050030-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook,
Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown,
Norristown, Lansdale, Chalfont, Perkasie, Morrisville,
and Doylestown
532 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

...Freezing rain continues through this evening...

Widespread freezing rain will continue to fall across the Lehigh
Valley and into northwest New Jersey. This will result in icy
conditions on area roads, as well as a light buildup of ice on
trees and power lines. Temperatures will slowly rise above
freezing through this evening, resulting in freezing rain changing
over to plain rain.

Plan on slippery road conditions and be prepared for reduced
visibilities at times.

PAZ054-055-050030-
Carbon-Monroe-
Including the cities of Jim Thorpe and Stroudsburg
532 PM EST Sun Feb 4 2018

...Mixed precipitation in the Poconos...

Snow has mixed with sleet, and additional snow and sleet
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible before changing to
freezing rain, then eventually rain, and ending late.

Plan on slippery road conditions and be prepared for reduced
visibilities at times.

MPS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 4, 9:29 AM ESTGale WarningPHI27 hr
Feb 4, 3:29 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryPHI29 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2018Areal Flood Advisories in New Jersey, 2018Areal Flood Advisories in Maryland, 2018Every areal flood advisory in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.