Areal Flood Advisory 59, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
342 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front just to the south and several weak areas of low
pressure will bring unsettled conditions to much of the area today
through Sunday. A cold front will cross the area later Sunday
followed by high pressure next week. Another low and front will
affect the area next Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Area of tropical moisture producing moderate to heavy rain over
eastern Virginia is tracking to the north and east and will lift
into northeast Maryland and Delaware through daybreak. An inch or so
of rain is forecast for those areas through 8 am or so. Flood Watch
remains in effect, and there is the potential for flooding in the
Delmarva during the morning commute.

High pressure centered just southeast of Hudsons Bay covers much of
eastern Canada and into the northern Great Lakes and Northeast U.S.
Meanwhile, a stationary front remains along the Mid-Atlantic, and
tropical low pressure is lifting that front north as a warm front.

The battle today will be between the high to the north and that
approaching warm front. 00Z NAM has the northern half of the
forecast area dry for most of the day while rain moves into the
Delmarva, southeast PA, and southern NJ. The heaviest rain will
affect the Delmarva this morning, and then can expect light to
moderate rain throughout the day. Will cap PoPs at chance for areas
north of I-78 or so for most of the day, while PoPs will be
categorical all day for the southern third of the forecast area.

By late afternoon, some elevated instability may lift into the
Delmarva as the warm front lifts a bit closer, so will mention
slight chance for thunderstorms.

Pressure gradient between approaching warm front from the south and
high pressure building to the north will result in gusty easterly
winds from late morning on.

Highs today will generally be in the 60s, except for the 50s near
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Low pressure continues to lift that warm front to the north, but
with high pressure well entrenched over the Northeast U.S., it
remains to be seen how far north that front will be able to track.
The low seems to taking a bit more of a western track, and a 40-45
kt LLJ is lifting into eastern PA, which is where the heaviest rain
seems to be. Meanwhile, a 25-30 kt LLJ lifts into NJ, but the heavy
rain is generally to the south and west of the forecast area. Some
heavy rain could lift into the Delmarva, and possibly as far north
as I-195. Generally expecting 1/2-3/4" QPF tonight.

Given antecedent conditions across the Delmarva and southern NJ,
flooding remains possible, and Flood Watch remains in effect.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Slow moving upper trough and weak surface low pressure and fronts
will affect much of the area this weekend. High pressure builds in
Later Sunday and remain through Monday. Another low and its
associated fronts approach for Tuesday and they could linger into
Wednesday, but there is some degree of uncertainty with this attm.

Temperatures will be mostly below normal Saturday, but then jump
back to above normal for Sunday and Monday with the weak upper ridge
moving over the area. Beyond that, readings will remain a little
above normal into the middle of the upcoming week.

Precipitation will be frequent and still locally heavy Saturday into
early Sunday while the area remain near the tropical moisture plume.
The steady showers will diminish later Sunday with only scattered
activity for Monday and into Tuesday. We have a mostly dry forecast
for later next week, but the models are quite dissimilar with
regards to the various systems, so changes are possible as we move
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...IFR/LIFR CIGs this morning will gradually lift to IFR/MVFR.
VSBY restrictions in fog this morning will also gradually lift.
MVFR/IFR VSBYs in moderate to heavy rain showers are likely from
KPHL southward. Northeast winds will increase to around 15 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR conditions in rain/fog. E-NE winds around 10 kt.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...
Saturday thru Sunday...Mostly sub-VFR conditions expected with
    frequent showers and psbl thunder at times.
Sunday night...Areas of fog possible.
Monday thru Tuesday...Mostly VFR, few showers with lower
    conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for the coastal ocean waters and DE Bay as NE
winds increase to 15-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts. Seas on the ocean
will build to 6-8 feet, and possibly as high as 5 feet on DE Bay.
Winds gradually diminish tonight, but will remain above SCA
conditions.

VSBY restrictions in moderate to heavy rain showers and fog expected
today and tonight.

Outlook...
Sat thru Sun night...Lingering SCA across the ocean. Showers.
Mon thru Tue night...Mostly sub-SCA. Sct Showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue
across the region into the weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible
during this period, with the heaviest rain falling late Thursday
night through Saturday. The heaviest of the expected rain has
shifted south and now resides across southern NJ and the
Delmarva.

The current forecast still calls for as much as 2-4 inches of rain
across much of the HSA through Saturday. This does not include the
rain that has fallen the last few days.

A variety of flooding types are all possible within the Flood Watch
we issued...from low-lying and poor drainage, to flash flooding, to
river flooding.

All of our hydrologic forecasts can be accessed via our Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service website.

Tides are also expected to increase through the end of the week as
well. This could exacerbate flooding across those areas where fresh
water and tides meet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Favorable timing in the lunar tide cycle and steady onshore
flow will result in minor tidal flooding with the next few high
tide cycles. A coastal flood advisory has therefore been issued
for this  evenings tide. Other advisories may be needed for the
weekend.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for PAZ060>062-070-071-
     101>106.
NJ...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for NJZ007-009-010-
     012>027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for NJZ016-021.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for NJZ012>014-020-022>027.
DE...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for DEZ001>004.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Saturday for DEZ001-002.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Saturday for DEZ003-004.
MD...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ450>455.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for ANZ430-431.

&&

Synopsis...O'Hara
Near Term...MPS
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...O'Hara
Aviation...MPS/O'Hara
Marine...MPS/O'Hara
Hydrology...MPS
Tides/Coastal Flooding...O'Hara

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
323 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ007-009-010-015-017>019-PAZ060>062-070-071-
101>106-190730-
Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Warren-Hunterdon-Somerset-
Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Berks-Lehigh-
Northampton-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
323 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Maryland, central
New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ001-008-PAZ054-055-190730-
Sussex-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-
323 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey and
northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

For today, no hazardous weather is expected. Tonight, periods of
rain, heavy at times, may result in urban and small stream flooding

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Periods of rain, heavy at times, may result in urban and small stream
on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-021-190730-
New Castle-Kent-Salem-Cumberland-
323 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is the potential for further minor coastal flooding with the
high tide cycles into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ003-004-NJZ012>014-020-022>027-190730-
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-
Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Atlantic-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-
323 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey, northern New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

There is the potential for further minor coastal flooding with the
high tide cycles into the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-190730-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
323 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>