Areal Flood Advisory 260, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1235 AM EDT Wed Aug 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front is forecast to lift through our region overnight,
then a cold front is expected to move slowly across our area on
Wednesday. High pressure is anticipated to follow for Thursday
and Friday. The main center of the high should move out to sea
over the weekend but it is expected to continue influencing our
weather into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1230 AM, a warm front continues to make northward
progress across the region with a wind shift to the south and
southwest with its passage. An organized area of convection
continues to lift across portions of eastern PA and northern NJ
with excessive rainfall rates (2-3 inches per hour). Several
reports of flash flooding have been received. This area is
lifting more north now of the stronger instability, however
there appears to be an embedded meso-low which has enhanced the
ascent. Farther to the south and more in the warm sector, a
trailing line of lift is focusing convection across northeast MD
and this will spread northeastward. The PoPs were adjusted
accordingly, and the bulk of the showers/thunder are expected to
move out or dissipate by daybreak. The hourly temperature, dew
points and wind grids were adjusted based on the latest
observations and trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will move northeast across Quebec through the day
with its attendant cold front slowly moving south/east across
the forecast area through the day. Also, the upper level trough
will be continuing to linger over the NE CONUS in the system's
wake. As a result, expect considerable cloud cover to persist
across the area with some scattered showers and storms possible.
Highs will generally be in the low to mid 80s except 70s across
the southern Poconos. The main change through the day though
will be falling dew points as the front moves across. It will
start out quite muggy but by late day expect dew points in the
low to mid 60s...much more comfortable in comparison!

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A long wave mid level trough is forecast to be located over
eastern Canada and the northeastern states on Wednesday night
and Thursday before it lifts northeastward and away from our
region. The mid level pattern is expected to flatten a bit over
the weekend before some ridging begins over the eastern states
early in the new week.

Surface high pressure is anticipated to be centered in the
middle Mississippi River Valley on Wednesday night. The high
will build eastward with its center forecast to pass through our
region on Friday before moving out to sea. Dry weather is
expected for Thursday and Friday with noticeably lower humidity
than we've been experiencing. Dew point readings should drop
into the 50s.

The surface high is expected to get absorbed into the large
high over the western North Atlantic. The surface flow should
begin to favor the south and southwest resulting in an increase
in heat and humidity during the period from Saturday through
Tuesday. The anticipated rise in humidity levels may bring about
isolated showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday mainly
during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Daytime highs should favor the upper 70s and lower 80s on
Thursday and Friday, the 80s on Saturday and Sunday, and the
upper 80s and lower 90s on Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows
should also increase gradually during the period, starting in
the 50s and 60s on Wednesday night and ending in the upper 60s
and lower 70s on Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Overnight...Varying conditions from VFR to MVFR/IFR due to
showers and some thunderstorms with a northward shifting warm
front. The conditions should improve some especially late and
south of the warm front. The showers and storms are expected to
mostly end by 08Z. Southeast winds 4-8 knots, becoming south
and southwest behind the warm front.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR conditions in the morning with conditions
improving to low VFR by mid afternoon. Scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions possible as a cold
front shifts offshore. Southwest to west winds increase 10-15
knots with gusts to around 20 knots through the afternoon.
Winds will turn more to the northwest late.

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday night and Thursday...Mainly VFR. Northwest wind 5 to
10 knots.

Thursday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Local late night
and early morning visibility restrictions are possible. Variable
wind 8 knots or less.

Saturday night and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Local late night and
early morning visibility restrictions are possible. Variable
wind 8 knots or less becoming southerly.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds/seas increase with SCA conditions expected for over the
ocean waters for all zones except the far northern NJ coast.
There will also be some showers and thunderstorms overnight.

For Wednesday, winds/seas slowly come down with SW winds
shifting to west in the wake of a cold front. Conditions should
be below SCA levels by afternoon.

OUTLOOK...
Wednesday night through Sunday...No marine headlines are
anticipated.

RIP CURRENTS...
There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches for Wednesday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ451>455.

&&

Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Fitzsimmons
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Gorse/Iovino/Meola
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Iovino

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
951 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015>023-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-230200-
New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-
Caroline-Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-
Western Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-
Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
951 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, southern Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New
Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New
Jersey, east central Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rain which could
result in flooding of small streams and creeks, roadways and areas
of poor drainage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-230200-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
951 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms may produce locally heavy rain which could
result in flooding of roadways and areas of poor drainage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-230200-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
951 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
145 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0128 AM     FLOOD            3 NE ANCIENT OAKS       40.57N  75.55W
08/22/2018                   LEHIGH             PA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MINESITE ROAD CLOSED BETWEEN HAMILTON BOULEVARD AND
            CENTRONIA ROAD DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER PHI1801432

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