Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Areal Flood Advisories in 2018

Areal Flood Advisory 131, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

July 15, 2018Hunterdon County, New Jersey; Bucks County, Lehigh County, Northampton County, Pennsylvania

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this areal flood advisory at Jul 15, 2018, 9:47 AM EDT for Hunterdon County, New Jersey; Bucks County, Lehigh County, Northampton County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 15, 2018, 9:47 AM EDT (13:47 UTC)
Expired
Jul 15, 2018, 1:18 PM EDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Area
Storm-based polygon

Counties Hunterdon County, NJ, Bucks County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Northampton County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 202 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-07-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 63 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2018-07-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 103 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
63 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-154 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
851 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
103 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
135 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood advisory went out at Jul 15, 9:45 AM EDT, 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 9:45 AM EDT, 2 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 15, 3:10 AM EDT, 6 hours 37 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
310 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-160715-
New Castle-Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Eastern Chester-Eastern Montgomery-Lower Bucks-
310 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Delaware, central
New Jersey, southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heat index values near 100 degrees are possible on Monday and
Tuesday.

Heavy rain is possible on Tuesday, which may result in local
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-013-016-020>023-
027-PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105-160715-
Kent-Inland Sussex-Cecil-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Sussex-
Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Salem-
Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Cape May-Southeastern Burlington-Carbon-
Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-
310 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, southern
Delaware, northeast Maryland, central New Jersey, northern New
Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heavy rain is possible on Tuesday, which may result in local
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ004-NJZ014-024>026-160715-
Delaware Beaches-Eastern Monmouth-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-
310 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware, central
New Jersey and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Heavy rain is possible on Tuesday, which may result in local
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-450>455-160715-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
310 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters and
Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 15, 5:22 AM EDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
522 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018

NJZ001-008-150945-
Morris-Sussex-
522 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL MORRIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN SUSSEX COUNTIES...

At 521 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Five Points, or
near Newton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts to 35 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Hopatcong, Wharton, Mount Arlington, Stanhope, Ogdensburg,
Branchville, Andover, Flatbrookville, Lake Mohawk, Five Points,
Crandon Lakes and Succasunna-Kenvil.

LAT...LON 4103 7448 4086 7462 4103 7490 4110 7497
      4109 7499 4112 7497 4112 7495 4120 7487
TIME...MOT...LOC 0921Z 302DEG 19KT 4105 7482

SFJ
Special weather statement, Jul 15, 6:27 AM EDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
627 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018

NJZ010-012-013-151100-
Western Monmouth-Somerset-Middlesex-
627 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SOMERSET...NORTHEASTERN
MIDDLESEX AND NORTH CENTRAL MONMOUTH COUNTIES...

At 626 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Society Hill,
or near New Brunswick, moving east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail is possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Brunswick, Perth Amboy, Somerville, Somerset, Edison, Old Bridge,
East Brunswick, Sayreville, Carteret, Middlesex, Bound Brook,
Manville, Matawan, Millstone, Colonia, Brownville, Society Hill,
North Brunswick Township, Woodbridge and South Plainfield.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4034 7420 4052 7465 4062 7453 4061 7444
      4060 7446 4061 7435 4059 7429 4060 7420
      4056 7421 4055 7425 4050 7426 4050 7428
      4046 7426 4044 7420 4046 7418 4045 7416
TIME...MOT...LOC 1026Z 286DEG 31KT 4052 7447

SFJ
Special weather statement, Jul 15, 7:59 AM EDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
759 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018

NJZ008-010-012-151230-
Morris-Somerset-Middlesex-
759 AM EDT SUN JUL 15 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MORRIS...NORTHEASTERN
SOMERSET AND NORTH CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTIES...

At 757 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Chester, or 13
miles west of Morristown, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with this storm. Locally heavy
rainfall may create ponding on roadways.

Locations impacted include...
Morristown, Madison, Middlesex, Florham Park, Bound Brook, Chatham,
Morris Plains, Mount Arlington, Mendham, Stanhope, Netcong, Peapack
And Gladstone, Chester, Far Hills, Long Valley, Martinsville,
Millington, Succasunna, Succasunna-Kenvil and Society Hill.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4049 7442 4072 7473 4078 7483 4090 7471
      4091 7469 4079 7437 4076 7438 4075 7436
      4074 7437 4067 7446 4066 7445 4066 7441
      4065 7440 4060 7446 4060 7432
TIME...MOT...LOC 1157Z 303DEG 33KT 4083 7472

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 14, 10:43 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHISussex32 min
Jul 14, 11:29 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHISussex3 hr
Jul 15, 5:22 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHISussex23 min
Jul 15, 6:27 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHIMiddlesex33 min
Jul 15, 7:59 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementPHISomerset31 min
Jul 15, 8:42 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHICarbon, Lehigh, Northampton4 hr
Jul 15, 9:44 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBerks4 hr
Jul 15, 10:06 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningPHIBerks114 min
Jul 15, 10:57 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIBerks, Chester, Montgomery2 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Advisories in Pennsylvania, 2018Areal Flood Advisories in New Jersey, 2018Every areal flood advisory in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.